Trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 5yo: 3-2-10 6yo: 1-3-8 7yo: 2-5-9 8yo: 1-0-16 9yo: 2-1-15 10yo: 1-1-9 11yo+: 0-0-3 Horses aged 5 to 7: 6-10-27 Horses aged 8+: 4-2-43 All 6 winners aged 5 to 7 were French bred. The 3 winners aged 9+ were Irish bred. Breeding French bred: 7-7-28 Irish bred: 3-5-25 British bred: 0-0-10 German bred: 0-0-6 NZ Bred: 0-0-1 7 of 10 winners were French bred. Moscow Flyer and Sizing Europe were the two Irish bred winners in past 10 years, both had previously won the Champion Chase. Recent/Past Form 10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out 10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 157+ 8 of 10 winners had previously run that season (finishing in first 3 in all starts) 9 of 10 winners had won a chase by 16 lengths or more (exception had won a chase by 9L) 9 of 10 winners had previously won a Grade 1 chase (Kauto Star was the exception, he had not previously run in a Grade 1) 7 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases (all 3 exceptions trained by Nicholls and became multiple winners of the race) 5 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (3 having first run here) Other Races Game Spirit Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 211 (2-1-3) Celebration Chase winner (Sanctuaire): 216414 (2-1-6) Maghulls Novice Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 43212 (1-2-5) Arkle winner (Sprinter Sacre): U2322 (0-3-5) Wayward Lad Novices' Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 4 (0-0-1) Burnt Oak & Special Cargo Challenge Cup winner (Sanctuaire): 53 (0-0-2) 5 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 4U11F 8 of 10 winners ran in Queen Mother Champion Chase, finishing 31UF1F41 3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Punchestown Champion Chase, finishing U12 2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Tied Cottage Chase, finishing 13 2 of 10 winners ran in the Melling Chase, finishing 12 2 of 10 winners ran in the Game Spirit, finishing 11 2 of 10 winners ran in the Haldon Gold Cup last time, finishing 23 2 of 10 winners ran in Celebration Chase, finishing 11 Trainers Paul Nicholls (7-3-18) has won 6 of the last 7 runnings and but for Moscow Flyer & Sizing Europe, he would have trained the last 10 winners. It seems as if it takes an exceptional chaser to beat the Nicholls team in this race. The only two non-Nicholls winners in the last 10 years have been Moscow Flyer and Sizing Europe, both were winners of the Arkle & Queen Mother Champion Chase. Alan King (0-2-2) trained Voy Por Ustedes to finish runner-up twice. Price 10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting All 10 winners since 2002 went off 6/1 or shorter. Favourites (6-3-11) have won 6 of last 10 runnings of this & show a level stakes profit of 1.55. Summary: Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: â¢French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 9 or 10 â¢Finished in first 3 last time (posting RPR of 157+) â¢Ran in past 40 days â¢Won a grade 1 chase â¢Previously won a chase by 16 lengths or more â¢Finished in the first 4 in last yearâs renewal â¢Finished in the first 4 in Queen Mother Champion Chase â¢First 3 in Haldon Gold Cup, Game Spirit and/or Melling Chase â¢From the first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 6/1) â¢Trained by Paul Nicholls or â¢Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in Tied Cottage & Punchestown Champion Chase
thanks for writing all that out stick from what i've seen this year looks a two horse race but trends for top races are really useful because i find them harder to call compared to some of the middling ones. good to keep a note of. interesting also that irish trained need to be older to win it. i know french bred are more advanced because of their training but the age difference is quite big between the two nations.
haha! they don't fit the trends at all do they. i just had a look and my brow furrowed, it either makes masses of homework, or none at all but you know, danger may lie with stick's statistics! i'm with sprinter as well though, but i will have a further look tomorrow.
I am hoping Paul Nicholls' fantastic record in this race continues tomorrow. I just think if there is a time to oppose Sprinter Sacre it is tomorrow. Both horses will be fit tomorrow however I just feel this will be a bigger target for Sanctuaire.
