Under The Spotlight: 2012/13 Edition: 'Episode 2'- Flemenstar | Horse Racing

Nice one Oddy

He's the one for me that you can look at in the forefront on the GC betting and say that horse could be the one to take 3 mile chasing by the scruff of its neck. Probably along with Bob's Worth really. If he wins this weekend he'll be a lot shorter. It's back him now or on the day really. Be wary of the Irish hype though, there's 4 that aren't as good as they say for every 1 that is <run>. Bob's Worth has to be interesting too and if the Hennessey form works out I'm prepared to nail my colours to his mast. With Tidal Bay in 2nd off of 166 I remain to be convinced that the Hennessey was a strong renewal. Love those videos though, the way he jumps is a joy to watch. He'll have to prove he stays and he has to prove he acts at Cheltenham though. No different to any other horse in that regard, plus he's yet to do it against the very top horses. 9s for the Gold Cup is a price in that if (and I think he will) he wins this weekend he'll be much shorter but it doesn't tempt me at this stage with still a bit to prove. As you say, finger crossed for a good season and I hope the front 5 in the Gold Cup betting all line up in March.

 

Nice article Oddy, i'm a huge fan of Flemenstar and have followed and backed him everytime since his first bumper run. Personally i don't see him as Gold cup horse at least not this season & i'm surprised Mr Casey is in such a rush to run him in the race. Now, if he was to go for the Ryanair - i'd be all over him like rash. I think over 2m 4f there's not a better horse in training. Maybe a, For Non Stop could give him the most to think about on good ground but when do we have genuine good ground at Cheltenham now? Anyway as a Gold cup horse, a big fat NO. He'd be outstayed by the likes of Bobsworth coming up the hill.

 

For Non Stop? Please. He came to mind ahead of Al Ferof, Finians, Riverside Theatre and Cue Card? Wow.

 

Oddy, firstly what a magnificent article. A cracking contribution it really is.

I was unconvinced early on in his novice season, but now I am very much like you- I think he is a genuine top class chaser. His reappearance was excellent, and bear in mind that he was undercooked that day so he had a bit more in the tank. His jumping is what makes him stand out, he cruises well, he races prominently, and he jumps superbly. He is uncomplicated and he does things with the minimum of fuss. I think he will certainly stay the Gold Cup trip one day, I think if he entered the King George this year he would wipe the floor with them, I suppose the one doubt would be the travelling to Cheltenham. He won as he liked over 2 and half miles at the back end of last season, and to be honest he looked like he hardly had a race. When you jump like he does, you start to open doors in terms of trip, similar to the way Kauto Star at his absolute peak could.

I personally cannot see any reason to go for the Ryanair- if he is coming to the festival then it may aswell be the Gold Cup because he jumps, he never looks like he won't get a trip, he is rhythmical and he is very classy. Quicker ground would be a concern yes, but so many Irish horses have the same issue.

As for Bobs Worth, for me he is a lay this time round at the festival and will probably be a gallant 3rd. I have opposed him enough to fear him, but on a line through First Lieutenant, I cannot see him winning a Gold Cup because FL is not even in the top 4 Irish staying chasers at the very least IMO and that is why Flemenstar is rattling value at the moment. Sir Des Champs and Flemenstar are the two who just seem to have so much left under the bonnet, and look natural chasers. Last Instalment looked pretty special too- I need an update on his progress from injury before going any further with him. Hidden Cyclone is potentially underestimated also, and Weapon's Amnesty might, if we are very lucky, make it back racing at Christmas.



All I hope is that we get an all star lineup in the Gold Cup.

 

On good ground he's a super horse,who i thought ran a cracker the other week. where he never got into his stride on poor ground and done extremely well to finish so close to the winner, considering the amount of mistakes he made.

 

Great in depth piece Oddy

I've been a huge fan before he even jumped a fence.

However,I have also been saying on numerous occasions that I can't see him staying 3m2.5f around Cheltenham given how much natural speed he has and the exuberance which characterises his performances.

He is totally different from Bob's Worth in that he has much more scope,speed and natural talent than NH's diminutive chaser.I think that he would better the former even over 3m but around Cheltenham over an extended 3m2f Bob's Worth may outstay Flemenstar imo...thats not to say that BW will win the GC,I'm merely comparing the two for the sake of argument.

I don't necessarily see him going to Cheltenham this year for anything.The Irish Hennessy will give us a fair idea if he will get 3m+.

I love watching him and,along with SS,he is a box office smash...great for the sport...just hope such a big horse stays injury free.

 

Oddy, good morning- and good Article!
It's quite a clash coming up at the weekend and very difficult to be pedantic about which one will prevail. I suppose it comes down to your own gut feelings. If the race were three miles round Cheltenham, then I'd be in favour of Sir Des Champs- he's got 'stayer' written all over him. Nonetheless he'll still be a big player over the shorter distance because he has a finishing kick. It really is a fascinating clash, and Rubi Light must not be discounted- he's a very good animal/yardstick, especially in soft ground.
The prospects for this season's Cheltenham Gold Cup really are mouth-watering!
We don't know how far Al Ferof can go, and any horse that wins the Hennessy off 11st 6lbs must be fully respected- and Bob's Worth's win IS the best staying performance up to now.
Even Tidal Bay is not out of it. Not many horses have done better in that race carrying 11st 12lbs and, although you'd have to feel that Bob's Worth would still prevail against him at level weights, the Cheltenham hill would really help Tidal Bay, especially with cut in the ground.
Coming back to Saturday, if Sir Des Champs can handle Flemenstar over the shorter trip, then the latter's Gold Cup aspirations are over IMO.
looking forward to the race. Can't wait!

 

Completely agree with you Oddog. I have also back this horse for the CGC at a nice 12/1. If he stays the trip I cannot see him being beaten, but that is the doubt. I am willing to take a chance on him staying as he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree.

 

First lieutenant is a much better horse on improved ground which he doesnt get in Ireland. He also handles the Cheltenham course extremely well. I am still all over bobs worth for the cup certainly ahead of flemenstar regardless of what he achieves over this weekend at a shorter trip.

 

Very impressive performance agreed. He did have that great injection of pace which we knew would happen. Sir de champs put in a good run and runs like he needs further. I'm still not convinced flemenstar will see out three mile two at chelts but I've been proved wrong many times. I'd just rather be on SDC over that distance. Bobs worth for me over them both though

 

Cannot see Bobs Worth winning a Gold Cup. Brilliant attitude and stays all day but there are one or two with too much scope for him IMO.

Sir Des Champs looks every inch a Gold Cup horse IMO.

Flemenstar will win if he stays. This is a serious jumper, absolutely electric.


His natural speed means he will have to do it the Kauto Star way and get himself clear 3 out. Always nice to have Cheltenham form to your name though so I would say Sir Des Champs will be a much tougher proposition than today suggests. Would love a 10/1 quote...

 

I can't see him staying personally....however he was impressive enough today. Not a CGC proposition at this stage and not value either. I would rather lay than back presently.

 

Even after today, i'm still adamant that he's not a Gold Cup horse & would be far better off going for the Ryanair which i feel he'd win. He'd probably have a better chance at Kempton on St Stephens day if he turned up than going to Cheltenham for the Gold cup. I'm yet to see anything that can trouble the Henderson two(Bobsworth & Long Run) for the Gold cup.

 

What I find interesting is Peter Casey saying 'He is still not ready'. If this is true and there is still an improvement in fitness to come, then I cannot see him getting beaten in the Lexus. It will be interesting to see if that is the case. I just feel that Andrew Lynch will just hold onto him longer and if he retains that kick on the final bend, then the rest are in trouble.

 

Well, now the storm has calmed, and we have chance to sit down with a warm brew and take in the Lexus, it seems logical to come back to Flemenstar himself.

No matter who you were on in the Lexus Chase, just sit back and ponder the race that Flemenstar ran, and how we see him going forward.


The video below is fabulous coverage from RTE by the way- including post-race interviews from Peter Casey and Ruby Walsh (please watch this before thinking about backing Tidal Bay for a Gold Cup just yet!)

[video=youtube;-__CqnyK7Oo]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-__CqnyK7Oo[/video]

For me personally, watching the race I think they had trouble holding him back. He naturally wanted to go on. In fact he jumped himself almost to the front on more than one occasion and on all of those, he was held back by Andrew Lynch. There is a fine line between letting a horse pull and letting him get into his natural rhythm, and I wonder if Flemenstar wasn't made enough use of? It sounds a crazy argument, but when you are sat on the best jumper and the quickest horse in the race, should you give yourself a better chance by building up your lead?

Personally I think whether he stays 3m is still an unfinished debate. He was outstayed on Sunday, but I would like to pinpoint a couple of slow jumps that may have been the key to the race,

Look at around 1.19- he looks a little keen there. His jump at 1.25 seems a little sketchy also.

At 2:12, Flemenstar has just outjumped the whole field but is restrained and allows the pack (albeit ridden along), to cruise alongside and in some cases past him. I dont ever like those tactics with any horse and I think they will have learnt a ot about judging the pace of 3m races. I think that was the point where he could have been allowed to bowl along and jump many of them out of contention.

He has the chance to go on but allows China Rock to scoot past him and also does not jump as cleanly at 3.10 (got in close), before another less slick jump at the last and at that point the stayers really are tanking home. To his credit, he could have folded when First Lieutenant got to him, but he showed a lot of resolve and kept on battling and he has only been beaten a length on a stiff track at Leopardstown in a stiff finish. Also you will never see a race run to suit Tidal Bay as much as that did, it played right into his hands. IMO Flemenstar could have gone 10L clear under different tactics and Tidal Bay would never have gone near, never mind past him.


Also watch as Flemenstar cruises into the home turn- the true stayers have been stoked up onto top gear and Flemenstar when asked to respond is responding with a small lead and against horses at full tilt. I can't help but think he would win the race if it were run again, but am left perplexed with regards to a Gold Cup bid. Personally I could see him miles ahead freewheeling down the Cheltenham hill, but being closed on up the hill in the final furlong.

There is something about him that tells me he is a 3 miler. He looked buzzy in the Lexus and never really fully relaxed. You also need to remember that Paul Carberry on Monksland, earlier in the day, said that it was the stickiest the ground had been all week, and the reason Monksland stayed so strongly was that he sat up on him and gave him a breather in the back straight and then asked him for a massive finish as they got to the bend. Sound familiar with Tidal Bay? Flemenstar was up against the stoutest of stayers and also top class ones at that, and he was jumping like for like with an RSA/Hennessey-placed horse, Hidden Cyclone and Midnight Chase going a gallop, and was up with them all the way down the back straight, the jockey constantly trying to reign him in. That tells me if he were to have relaxed and dropped into midfield down the back, he could have made his move on the home bend with more air left in the tank.

There is just enough there for me to still be excited about Flemenstar, not to mention First Lieutenant who will improve for spring ground, and Sir Des Champs who will be outstaying all comers in March.

Still a potential firecracker Gold Cup.


Cheltenham is rarely sticky and I can still see Flemenstar running a monster race in a Gold Cup. He has to learn to switch right off for a mile though, like Kauto Stars famous economical rhythm when at his best, and he will need to produce big jumps in the final mile to make sure no momentum gets lost.

 

Nothings changed, as above!!