Hennessy Gold Cup

I absolutely love Tidal Bay, and have done since his Arkle win in 2008 (?). The only problem is, the animal is an absolute lunatic! When he wants to run, I truly believe he is one of the most talented NH horses in training, but as mentioned above, too many times he needs to be coaxed into running. But the Hennessy off of top weight might be a step too far for him, but if he's in touch near the finish, no one will be finishing quicker than him.

Bobs Worth is class, and from what I've seen, looks so much better going left-handed, he'll be very hard to beat.

Problema Tic could run well, he would probably want further, but the ground may come up just right for him, and be a negative for one or two others. Also Michel Le Bon has very few miles on the clock, but you'd be hoping he could improve for his run behind the Package.

 

Bigger than 30s on the exchange. Must be a non runner

 

still in the 30's, also saw mentioned that michel le bon(not a reliable source) could be a big doubt, so this race could cut up pretty bad yet.
also roberto goldback 80/1 and harry the viking 90's must be doubts

 

Hennessy Gold Cup

Diamond Harry 25/1

Fair enough he's been awful the past couple of seasons but I can't pass up the 25/1 about Nick Williams 2010 winner Diamond Harry who won this off a 13lb higher mark in a very quick time pretty much on good to soft ground when winning fairly cosily from Burton Port and Denman. His 3 starts this year have resulted in him being pulled up on all occasions but as a result he's now extremely well handicapped off a mark of 143 and he should get into this with a lovely racing weight of 10-3. His recent reappearance in the Badgers Ale Trophy was pretty disappointing as his record fresh is very good but he had a bit of a setback which caused him to miss the Charlie Hall so I think that run may have been needed to blow away the cobwebs. He absolutely adores Newbury with a record of 1-1-1-3-1-1 in all spheres (3rd behind Big Bucks) and he is undefeated in 2 chasing starts at the track and I'm definitely hoping that a return to what is probably his favourite venue will spark a bit of a revival. In what may have been his early season target all along, I think 25/1 is well worth taking despite him not being at his best for a couple of seasons and if this 9 year old bounces back to form he could make an absolute mockery of his mark of 143 and land this for the 2nd time in 3 years.

 

I think Saint Are and Duke of Lucca are cracking each way bets. Both 2nd season chasers and both fit the bill.

Bobs Worth seems to have everything going for him but just in terms of value I like these two.

I have written a preview of the race if anyone is interested http://horsesandteeth.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/hennessy-preview.html

Any feedback much appreciated!

 

Hi guys I am on one of these dongle things this week so I have 'internet' . the page hasn't quite loaded up but i'm typing somewhere so fingers crossed this works.

anyway i was looking at the card today at work and answer me this. Has Diamond Harry be absolutely laid out for this? I wonder if connections realised he wasn't top class after last years Betfair and have been setting him up for this. Not as one at a price as such but he's off 143 or 144 I think. Nice prize pot, they probably enjoyed winning it before... Something to ponder. Have The Package in my TTF and his mark probably isn't beyond him. Can't really remember who else runs and dare not load up the RP. Going to try and find better signal.

 

OH BOOM I'VE GOT THIS THING WORKING. See Roto has tipped up Diamond Harry, similar thought process. I think either he's gone to **** or this is a plot though. I don't think he'll be bouncing back if he's been genuinely sound and trying. But, as I say, maybe this has been the plan for a while....

 

Agreed GGW. He's either lost the plot or connections have had this in their mind for a while. I'll gladly take 25/1 every day of the week to find out off a mark of 143 though!

 

Another little plus if you fancy Diamond Harry is his form on soft/heavy ground. Only 1 defeat and that was to a certain Big Bucks in the Long Walk. Hasn't run on this surface for a while though.

 

Bob Worth 3/1
Hold On Julio 6/1
Tidal Bay 7/1
The Package 8/1
Frisco Depot 9/1
First Lieutenant 12/1
Magnanimity 12/1
Alfie Spinner 14/1
Saint Are 14/1
Teaforthree 16/1
Duke Of Lucca 16/1
Carruthers 20/1
Harry The Viking 20/1
Diamond Harry 20/1
Fruity O'Rooney 20/1
25/1 Bar


Any thoughts?

 

Had some of the 41/1 about Roberto Goldback on Betfair after Nicky The Needle changed his mind about running him. Think he's a very interesting contender after winning impressively on his first start for Henderson.

 

Roberto Goldback wont be winning ROTO

Can see the attraction to 25/1 Diamond Harry though, thrown in on his best form but disappointing horse.

I like Frisco Depot 10/1, think he could be well handicapped off 141 but Sam Waley Cohen is just a hindrance to a horse, will back him anyway.

First Lieutenant could be a decent trade, 12/1 with ladbrokes just now, id imagine he will be single figures by the time the race starts.

 

FL will not be competitive on this ground. there'dbe a massive danger of him bot running if it's a bog. just something to consider if you back to lay. That's coming from his biggest fan.

 

I know he wants good ground but its probably going to be better than anything they can get in Ireland just now and they will want a run before the Lexus so I think he will run.

Morris said they will know by Wednesday if hes going to run, there has been around 4k on him from 14 into 11 on Betfair which suggests someone knows he is running, thats about 10% of the market and they are quite serious bet sizes, 1257 at 12.00, 949 at 12.5, id expect it to be announced he will be running tomorrow and the 12/1 will probably go.

 

Not sure if anyone saw the last run of Harry The Viking but there is far more to it than simply running a shocker and being pulled up. His form now reads P-P on his last two starts but on the latter occasion he was travelling strongly into contention in my eyes, looked to have no issues in the testing ground, but then blundered badly at the 16th when a lot of horses got in close to one another. I think if he was about to produce the performance I thought he looked like producing, he could certainly have run to a mark pushing 155. which for my money would begin to ask big questions of the top weights in this field. Nicholls has been keeping an eye on the ground for Harry The Viking and it apparantly reads soft/good to soft in places on the chase course (if you take ATR as Gospel ) so he looks like running and is a big price.

Ruby chooses Tidal Bay but he has been wrong before and I do like Daryl Jacob on spare rides.

I just think first time up this will be a big ask for Bobs Worth, and can Roberto Goldback continue an upward curve from high in the weights so quickly after a good win? First Lieutenant would want it quicker I should think but he is better left-handed judged on his Cheltenham exploits and is the value of the field IMO. He will have to run because he is entered in the John Durkan and I think there are some other big Gigginstown names lined up for that, so this will probably be FL's last run before the spring ground comes back in Feb/March I should think?

 

I think they are looking at the Lexus Toppy, obviously Sir Des Champs will be their number one for that but they sometimes run 2 or 3 in the big races.

 

Do you think there is any chance Sir Des Champs will come to Kempton on Boxing Day? I'm just wondering if they'll avoid a pre-Cheltenham clash with Flemenstar?

 

No chance, he will be taking on Flemenstar in the John Durkan anyway before the Lexus.

I think the Lexus will be the race of the season, thats the one im looking forward to over christmas, Sir Des Champs, Hidden Cyclone, Flemenstar, Rubi Light, Weapons Amnesty and First Lieutenant, will be a cracker if they all turn up, and dont write off Hidden Cyclone