Daily Thread November 28th (26 days till xmas)

Not great days racing due to the ***** weather we hve! But there are still winners to be found. Just the one pick for me!

18.00 Kempton- Harris Tweed- 10/3

Cant beleive the price of him. Is definately the class horse in the field. Yes he was disappointing in a Newbury Group 3 contest last month but he is capable of much better and this is a step down in class. If anywhere near back to his best he shall be making all the running and nothing will be getting past.

 

Harris Tweed never has been a 1m4f horse and never will be. He might just get away with it in this field though as I don't think it's that strong. Ill still be trying to find something to beat him tho

 

1.10 Wolves

Pelmanism 8/1 NAP

Although he's been very poor of late this screams of a plot about Brian Ellison's 4 year old on what is his lowest handicap mark for 18 months and if all goes to plan then hopefully he can land his 8th career victory. Formerly with Kevin Ryan, he reached his career high when scoring at Haydock with a going away win off a mark of 76 back in September of last year for current connections. Since then, he's had 8 starts (7 this year) and although yet to reach the frame he has fallen a long way in the handicap from a mark of 81 in October 2011 to a mark of 63 and he is now very well handicapped. His plummeting handicap mark is not the only thing that caught my attention but rather a number of other factors that lead me to believe that tomorrow is a day that he will be trying very hard to win. Firstly, its his first start on the AW since March 2011 and he was last seen winning off a 7lb higher mark when last tried on the surface where he has an overall record of 3-6 (yet to race at Wolverhampton). In addition, he's dropping back to a Class 6 for the first time since May 2011 and he has a record of 2131 in this grade where he has never been beaten more that 3/4L. The clincher for me is that blinkers are reapplied for the first time since June 2011 (first time for current connections) and this lazy racer has worn them in 6 of his 7 career victories. It seems highly unlikely that the above factors are happening all at once by coincidence and it leads me to believe that connections will be going all out to land this pretty poor race. Dale Swift, who is 1-2 on board Pelmanism, takes the ride and he has a nice draw from stall 4 which hopefully should allow him to get a nice sit on the rail. The one big concern for me is that Brian Ellison's flat horses have not really being firing this month (1-26; winner at start of month) but he's had a few winners over jumps recently so its not as if he's going through a completely barren spell. With this being his easiest task for a long time, I'm hoping the reapplication of blinkers and a return to the AW spark a revival and if everything goes to plan I'm confident Pelmanism can return to the winners enclosure tomorrow.

 

I think Swiss Cross has a good chance in the 7.00 at Kempton as he ran a very good race when running second to York Glory last week and a similar showing would give him a great chance.

 

i struggled to do anything with tomorrow's jumps at limerick. soft to heavy ground. i probably ought to put my actual picks on here rather than just notes.

sarabad (28/29) is predictably the favourite in the 12:50 being mullins/walsh. plus there's courageous cry (37/5) who was 4th to sizing rio on soft ground a month ago but then fell a fortnight ago. it was 37/10 but has drfited, i'm still debating this one. i'm struggling to find a 4/1 or better odds horse for ew so i went for theshowisover (was 36/5 earlier when i wrote it down, now second favourite 47/10), trainer henry de bromhead, ridden by andrew lynch.

1:50 last time d'albain (5/4) has gone the distance in heavy ground frequently, ridden by ruby walsh, trainer Liam P Cusack whose RTF percentage is 100, understandable favourite. odds too short for me so i've gone for liszt, very used to heavy ground and the distance, stayed the same at 15/2. jockey a bit unknown to me though.

lastly, 2:20 favourite italian chorus has drifted slightly from 22/23 to 8/5. still no good to me, so i went for goulane vixen which was 33/5 at the time, now 26/5, and was 3rd in its last race, trainer has a 100% RTF but the horse hasn't done great except that 3rd place.

the card was a bit uninspiring, but picked the above anyway, no bets. it fates my horses to type them here y'know only the ones i don't mention do anything. so my book is looking fine, but my post picks look ****. sid's law

g'luck all tomorrow, and on the flat as well

 

Morning, all. Hope everyone well. No NH action in the UK today, of course, but fear not, and I do mean fear not, regular readers as I like one running this evening on the old polytrack:

Rivellino (5.30 Kempton Park) - this Invincible Spirit colt does not fit the typical profile of a horse running in a maiden such as this in that he made his debut at Ascot prior to running in a Listed heat up at Ayr. First time up he showed great promise in being beaten less than 2 lengths by Moohaajim (subsequently won the Group 2 Mill Reef and was second in the Group 1 Middle Park) but last time, despite being prominent in the betting, was somewhat disappointing when stepped up in grade. However, the ground was very heavy on that latter occasion and I think it wise to therefore forgive Rivellino that effort. Certainly on his debut run he appears head and shoulders above today's opposition and this correspondent would be somewhat surprised if the old boy doesn't break his maiden tag here.

Good luck people.

 

1.30 Dancing Welcome - still available at 10/1

The one I like today is in the sprint at Lingfield, where the polytrack loving Dancing Welcome returns to action after a small lay off. She knows how to win at the track, she has a good winning record (10 wins) and she is fairly weighted on her best form. She also has the assistance of G Lee from the saddle and a good draw to go with it. She is one of very few in the race who has a fair record on the course and wins in the book, she may outdo her price (was bigger last night) and I can see her popping up here.

Nice EW bet.

 

Afternoon chaps.

12.30 Lingfield Faither 66/1 each way

 

Bit of Irish action as well

Sarabad
Tempo Du camp
Italian Chorus

Treble

 

Afternoon, was about to put that up Boston so it's probably got no chance now lol

Three for today
Ling 2.35 Emmas Gift 33/1
Wolv 4.20 Angelic Upstart 7/1
Kemp 7.00 Ubetterbegood 7/2

And then some e/w picks that might be worth looking at today

Lingfield
12.30 Faither 66/1
1.00 April Fool 12/1
1.30 Dancing Welcome 12/1
2.00 Kings Future 14/1
2.35 Emma's Gift 33/1
3.10 Lady Arabella 12/1
3.40 Pytheas 25/1

Wolveerhampton
1.10 Steel City Boy 12/1
2.45 Monte Cassano 10/1
3.20 Profile Star 12/1

Limerick
1.20 Cabello Du Marcus 12/1
2.20 Tell Me Lucy 12/1
3.25 Niamh Machine 20/1

Kempton
6.00 Qushchi 14/1
7.30 Northern Spy 10/1

 

This isn't worth starting a thread for. I was just wondering if anyone had heard if Katchit has been retired?? He really lost his way after his Champion Hurdle win.

 

How much of a dodgepot is Sarabad.

 

I was just getting used to watching my Redmen playing on a Thursday night as well...

 

I wonder what Corporal Maddox was there in running... Still last with only 2f left, makes the line with a little to spare...

 

Big price Red.

I think Kirby got very lucky there..not buying all the ATR great ride nonsense.

 

Limerick 1.50 Beckwith Star 12/1

saver on Diamond Shower at 25s

 

ROTO, your pick met one there... Speightowns Kid looked a very easy winner... Unlucky...

 

Luck and the best horse... Im with you on that Dex...