Well, a year on since that unbelievable Betfair Chase where Kauto Star announced he was back for one final hurrah, and I have honoured it in my profile signature! The often forgotten thing last year at this meeting is that there was a 20/1 KAUTO STAR and MASTER MINDED double on the day in the Betfair and Amlin chases- here's a tilt at the double this year. SILVINIANO CONTI 9/4 Long Run is a high class animal but if he doesn't jump well on Saturday he does not win. He has to improve that this year. I also wonder about his form too. Kauto and Denman were hardly at their brilliant best in 2010/2011 and Kautos turnaround with him in 2011/2012 makes you wonder. Long Run is certainly around the 170 mark in ability but I think Silviniano Conti has been one of the most gradually progressive chasers in training and it is interesting that Paul Nicholls feels he is ready for the crack at a Betfair chase. He is avoiding the King George because he feels he is a strong out and out stayer and might have lacked the speed for a King George- interesting then that the Betfair wil be a big stamina test. Silvinaiano has been a brilliant jumper, even when he was beaten by Cue Card on their chase debuts you knew Silviniano would go up in trip and be much more rhythmical and he is tailor-made for this sort of race. Giant Bolster just not for me in these conditions.
Laying the absolute **** out of Long Run. Don't think he's the same horse as he was back in 2011 and there are so many negatives against him. The are doubts about the ground, lost on his seasonal reappearance the last twice, suspect jumper, the awful Sam Waley-Cohen on board. Furthermore, Nicky Henderson said that a hard race against Kauto in the same race last year pretty much ruined his season and given the fact the ground is going to be very testing I can't see Long Run going all out to win this. Up against a race fit Silviano Conti, I think he looks one of the worst prices of the season and I'm very confident he's going to get beat. Mug punters will lump on him tomorrow so he'll probably start 5/4 or something ridiculous
I don't see any value in laying Long Run at odds against. He's only against one horse. Good luck as I'm not involved in that race but seems a poor value call to me. Your champion has spoken.
I am convinced he wins. And that the horses he is running against are the equivalent to conference level. Silviniaco Conti he is that crappy a challenger 2 of the great posters on this forum can't even spell his name correctly . I wish those backing against him/laying him the best of luck but he will not be getting beat off anything in this field. Suddenly he is criticised for falling short against one of the greatest NH horses of all time last season. Yeah he was a bit older but so what nothing wrong with his form at all. He handed the Giant Bolster a severe beating conceding 4lbs at Newbury and I am always willing to forgive an effort in the GC (rubbish ride btw). The ground thing = anyone saying he will not go on the ground 5 wins on VERY SOFT in France
I was furious with you until I realised you referred to me as a great poster I see your angle RV, definitely. I just have a feeling he might have been overrated in his winning year against a below par Kauto and likewise Denman. His jumping also got worse last season and I do wonder whether we will see the best of him again. Logically he is the form pick tomorrow and he might waltz in. However the Nicholls horse (**** spelling it after we have your Geordie hawk eyes on it LOL) was a very good 2nd behind Grands Crus when running faster than KAutos King George and Nicholls reckons he is actually more of a stayer, so his run at Kempton was most promising indeed. Remember, he has been kept away from the gruelling races as a novice and I think he'll be a much fresher animal for it in this open company season. Nicholls might have bought him along just right. In all seriousness though, all of these have bigger targets later in the year.
Long Run can be beaten tomorrow, because that useless piece of................. *this post has been edited because Nass might get a libel court case*
On ability alone i think it is close between Long Run and silvianco but the most significant comment is the one about Nicky Hendersons view that he had too hard a race in this last year as in my opinion the instruction will be if you can win then of course do, but in this ground at this stage in the season look after him for tomorrow. This attitude and Silvianco's race fitness i think makes him the better bet tomorrow. If they were to meet in the King George however i think Long Run may prove the better horse. I am intrigued to see your reasons for your nap ROTO as with all that good racing tomorrow, you are napping something in the last at the Wolverhampton evening meeting, you must have a very good reason i feel. Just had a look ROTO Chookie Hamilton is being shortened ROTO, it is however drawn 12 of 12 and could spend his race running 3 or 4 wide over 12f, it's also first run for K.Dalgliesh.
Silviniaco Conti I'm not tipping him, just putting his correctly spelled name where people can see it! You don't have to be Geordie to join the Grammar Police - in fact normally it helps if you aren't I'll assume that Blue, Ste and the rest are just going through a bad spell
Its a massive presumption to assume that Long Run will lack the fitness to be serious tomorrow. Henderson said: "I'd like to think he's a good bit straighter this year than he was last year. He looks big and he looks fantastic."Last year Paul (Nicholls) had Kauto 100% and I thought us being 90% would be enough, but it wasn't. He was probably a bit fresh last year and we got in a boxing match with Kauto, and Kauto punched his lights out." No Kauto Star this year im not saying i'll play but oppose Long Run....hmmmmm...at your peril ...possibly ...
personally i think long run, through no fault of his own, has suffered from unpopularity because he was around at the time of kauto star, plus jumped naively and clumsily maybe because he was only young, and his jockey. i confess to having the same bias. i know someone who had money on him early days and long run came good in the KG/ chelts gold cup. but i thought at the time kauto was still about and was his only threat. kauto's retied now and putting that rivalry aside we could now see what he's actually made of. but a) the gold cup last year he was 3rd, and b) can he get in tune with SWC? he's capable no dount, because he ran on through numerous jumping errors which are usually down to the jockey. so he's solid, but hasn't had a lucky clean career so far.
Interesting article in this week's post (can't remember who by) in which it was pointed out that in the era Best Mate, Denman and Kauto Star it has been the norm for the top staying chasers to win or be competitive in multiple Gold Cups. Historically though, winning a Gold cup has always been the very pinnacle of a horses' career, a high from which they inevitably decline (see Kicking King and War of Attrition). The principle of "regression to the mean" indicates the return of the established historic trend may be imminent. What that means for today is that Long Run is likely to be some way past his best, in which case he is no value even at 7/4. Not when the Champion trainer (a cracking bet to retain his title at 2/1 btw) enters an improving animal in the easily spelt Silviniaco Conti. There seems to be a common conception that the Charlie Hall wasn't much of a race, but I think the winner crushed a field of experienced chasers, every one of whom had form at the top level. Meanwhile, over at Ascot, I'll be backing Captain Chris. Top Class makes a great case for him at the top of this thread, and I don't have much to add to that. 4/1 is a cracking price. Finally, Oscar Whisky 10/11 with Coral's? Wtf? He'll win.
I think will be a big no show from long Run today 3rd at best, happy to be proved wrong as he is a good horse but i think not today. Silianco Conto to beat Wierd Al for me
Opposite for me Bluesky - I think we'll see Long Run something like back to his best. Can't believe he is 13/8, I'd have him at 4/6 against this field who are effectively all Grade 2 horses at best
