why did you just mention it then? i never said I tipped it i was going to post it the night before but went out of my head and I was out all day
Ardent, I have to agree. It's a bloody awful name, isn't it? God knows where the owner got that one from!
I was furious with you until I realised you referred to me as a great poster I see your angle RV, definitely. I just have a feeling he might have been overrated in his winning year against a below par Kauto and likewise Denman. His jumping also got worse last season and I do wonder whether we will see the best of him again. Logically he is the form pick tomorrow and he might waltz in. However the Nicholls horse (**** spelling it after we have your Geordie hawk eyes on it LOL) was a very good 2nd behind Grands Crus when running faster than KAutos King George and Nicholls reckons he is actually more of a stayer, so his run at Kempton was most promising indeed. Remember, he has been kept away from the gruelling races as a novice and I think he'll be a much fresher animal for it in this open company season. Nicholls might have bought him along just right. In all seriousness though, all of these have bigger targets later in the year.
I was furious with you until I realised you referred to me as a great poster I see your angle RV, definitely. I just have a feeling he might have been overrated in his winning year against a below par Kauto and likewise Denman. His jumping also got worse last season and I do wonder whether we will see the best of him again. Logically he is the form pick tomorrow and he might waltz in. However the Nicholls horse (**** spelling it after we have your Geordie hawk eyes on it LOL) was a very good 2nd behind Grands Crus when running faster than KAutos King George and Nicholls reckons he is actually more of a stayer, so his run at Kempton was most promising indeed. Remember, he has been kept away from the gruelling races as a novice and I think he'll be a much fresher animal for it in this open company season. Nicholls might have bought him along just right. In all seriousness though, all of these have bigger targets later in the year so this is informative but not the pinnacle!
Long Run can be beaten tomorrow, because that useless piece of................. *this post has been edited because Nass might get a libel court case*
Mine for tomorrow; Finians Rainbow / Oscar Whisky - Double (Class horses in their respective races, can't see either being beaten. Only nagging doubt would be the weight FR gives away to decent horses) 2.30 Haydock - Saphir River 7/1 Paddy Power 3.05 Haydock - Silviniaco Conti 9/4 Paddy Power 3.20 Ascot - Toubab 4/1 Paddy Power Good luck all who play The Vile Animal has spoken
On ability alone i think it is close between Long Run and silvianco but the most significant comment is the one about Nicky Hendersons view that he had too hard a race in this last year as in my opinion the instruction will be if you can win then of course do, but in this ground at this stage in the season look after him for tomorrow. This attitude and Silvianco's race fitness i think makes him the better bet tomorrow. If they were to meet in the King George however i think Long Run may prove the better horse. I am intrigued to see your reasons for your nap ROTO as with all that good racing tomorrow, you are napping something in the last at the Wolverhampton evening meeting, you must have a very good reason i feel. Just had a look ROTO Chookie Hamilton is being shortened ROTO, it is however drawn 12 of 12 and could spend his race running 3 or 4 wide over 12f, it's also first run for K.Dalgliesh.
Silviniaco Conti I'm not tipping him, just putting his correctly spelled name where people can see it! You don't have to be Geordie to join the Grammar Police - in fact normally it helps if you aren't I'll assume that Blue, Ste and the rest are just going through a bad spell
cracking day's racing tomorrow. i've got a huge pile of picks which i can't put all of them here (thus depriving myself of shouting about an outsider winner ) but.. as well as the usual form/jockey/trainer stuff the ground made me look again at each pick so as a sample i have: 12:20 HAY hollow tree instead of balder success 1:00 GOW blacklough has drifted out to 9/2 which is almost good enough for an ew bet 1:30 GOW whatdreamsrmadeof, same reason, just gone to 39/10 almost good enough odds if 12 run, 3rd 3 times in heavy ground over longer. i couldn't pick do the bookies - no heavy ground form info. 1:40 ASC grassfinch 10/1, kashabelle 12/1, picked after writing off a lot of the others, both have soft ground places over longer distance 2:00 HAY a bit stuck with this one and had to relinquish merigo 25/1 and dashing george 7/1 in favour of railway dillon 11/1 but prefer lie forrit 7/1 2:10 ASC i've gone with for non stop 7/2, ground again plus he's been out 22 days ago, finian's (11/10) has had 225 days off and i'm not sure if that's good or not, but wouldn't be surprised at all if finian's beat for non stop, he's won in soft ground but over shorter distance. quincy des pictons does well in soft ground but i'm not sure he's in the same league and left him off. 3:05 HAY betfair chase, i have the giant bolster 13/2, although i'm not totally confident. over 3 miles silviniaco has only run on GS ground and the giant bolster has come 2nd to time for rupert on soft. first time i wrote long run in my racing notebook, as a reserve so wouldn't bet on him, well done if he wins though. 3:20 ASC champion court the fave 7/2 has won/placed always on GS/Gd but can go much further, pepite rose 4/1 has won on heavy but a year or so back but i've gone with her anyway, marodima 10/1 has placed/won on heavy and soft this year going back to march, beat paul nicholl's favourite current event on soft in october over longer. 3:40 HAY jaunty journey 12/1 and wide receiver 7/1. ground, distance (3m4f) and was hard to call. bit comprehensive, apologies, and probably a bookie wouldn't want me to put ew bets on two horses in a race but considering last couple of days i would have showed a profit i thought i'd put a sample here. good luck all, very good racing tomorrow
Interesting as Stick has put the rank outsider and quote "we have a little word for GALILEE CHAMP Wolves 9.20 tomorrow 33-1, we have just missed 50's, not a regular source so minimal stakes!"
Its a massive presumption to assume that Long Run will lack the fitness to be serious tomorrow. Henderson said: "I'd like to think he's a good bit straighter this year than he was last year. He looks big and he looks fantastic."Last year Paul (Nicholls) had Kauto 100% and I thought us being 90% would be enough, but it wasn't. He was probably a bit fresh last year and we got in a boxing match with Kauto, and Kauto punched his lights out." No Kauto Star this year im not saying i'll play but oppose Long Run....hmmmmm...at your peril ...possibly ...
personally i think long run, through no fault of his own, has suffered from unpopularity because he was around at the time of kauto star, plus jumped naively and clumsily maybe because he was only young, and his jockey. i confess to having the same bias. i know someone who had money on him early days and long run came good in the KG/ chelts gold cup. but i thought at the time kauto was still about and was his only threat. kauto's retied now and putting that rivalry aside we could now see what he's actually made of. but a) the gold cup last year he was 3rd, and b) can he get in tune with SWC? he's capable no dount, because he ran on through numerous jumping errors which are usually down to the jockey. so he's solid, but hasn't had a lucky clean career so far.
