Hi guys, racing at Kempton, Market-Rasen & Thurles. (Hereford & Wincanton abandoned) ROTO flagged up RED HOT POKER - MR 2.40 last night and I also think this one has a good chance. It's got a tongue tie for the 1st time, r/up on the 18th Aug - winner and third have won since - both carried 5lb more) - selection has dropped 4lb since this race. Is a lightly raced 10yr old. Dropped in class today. If I make it to the bookies It'll carry my ten bob. Start of my Chelters kitty if it wins..... Outlander Thurles 3.35. Sizing Sahara Thurles 1.35 Tropics Kemp 5.40. Good luck to all.
Haven't had a punt for a while but quite interested in The Shoe Doctor in the 1.05 at Thurles Connections haven't being mucking about over hurdles and after three runs to get rated he ran in his first h'cap 'chase LTO. Travelled OK and was just getting into it when he tipped up at the last...since it was his first outing since April,I expect him to improve more that the assessor's 1lb raise. I'm not convinced the tight Thurles track will be ideal but the ground will hold no terrors and since there are more than 16 runners and 4 places I'm gonna have a few quid e/w at 7/1 BOG
‎2.40 Market Rasen Red Hot Poker 8/1 NAP Really hope that Market Rasen is on today as I strongly fancy Nigel Twiston Davies's very lightly raced 10 year old Red Hot Poker who I think has a massive chance of landing this 21f Class 4 handicap. Formerly with Willie Mullins where he landed a couple of bumpers and a maiden hurdle in 6 starts, Red Hot Poker didn't start his career until he was 7 years old and resultantly he's only had 13 career starts to date. His last start for Willie Mullins came in August 2009 and, for one reason or another, he was off the track for nearly 3 years before making his belated comeback in May of this year in a Beginners chase. He wouldn't have been beaten too far had he finished the race but he made a lot of jumping errors when he fell two out. It was a similar story a month later on his handicap chase debut where he again made too many mistakes before falling two out when beaten and its hardly surprising that he's been returned to hurdles ever since. At the end of June, Red Hot Poker made his handicap debut over hurdles off a mark of 112 over 2m1f at Newton Abbot where he ran a fine race to finish a 2.5L beaten 2nd on his first hurdles start in nearly 3 years. The form of that race looks decent with the winner Romeo Americo winning 3 starts later off a 7lb higher mark and given that it was over a trip that was probably on the sharp side it was a nice reintroduction. Raised 3lb for that effort, I think you have to discount Red Hot Poker's next start as he attempted to make all in a tactic that clearly backfired as he ended up being pulled up over 17f at Stratford. His best effort to date for the Twiston-Davies team undoubtedly came when upped in trip to 2m5 at Perth in testing conditions back in August when going down by a neck off todays mark of 115 in a Class 3 handicap. Held up at the rear of 9 runner field, Red Hot Poker made smooth and gradual progress through the field to get right into contention and he was still travelling very nicely coming to the final flight but he just couldn't beat his game and well handicapped rival Glingerbank, who had finished 2nd in the same race the year before and clearly looked targeted at the race. The form of that race looks strong with the winner scoring off a 5lb higher mark on his only subsequent start whilst the 3rd Hunters Belt has scored since including off a 5lb higher mark by 12L and he is now rated 22lb higher. He was raised 4lb for that effort where he again ran a fine race at Chepstow over 2m4f in August. Held up towards the rear of the 17 runner field, Red Hot Poker was travelling nicely into the home straight before a poor jump at 4 out seemed to blunt his momentum and knock him on the back foot but he still managed to stay on well under pressure to finish a decent 11L beaten 6th. Only 2 horses that finished in front of Red Hot Poker have come out again with the winner Kitigen running a fine race in a handicap Grade 3 over the same C+D finishing 6th off a 7lb higher mark (Red Hot Poker also ran in this) whilst the 4th Miss Milbourne won off a 1lb higher mark on his only subsequent start in a better race. This 10 year old's last start came about a month ago when upped into a Grade 3 Handicap hurdle in when he finished beaten a distance but that certainly doesn't tell the whole story. Customarily held up at the back of the field, Red Hot Poker made styling progress around the outside of the field coming into the home turn but he never picked up when asked. That field was probably a little above his class and he has been dropped 4lb back to a mark of 115 after that effort. There are two reasons why I am very confident about this 10 year olds chances tomorrow which are he is being dropped to a Class 4 handicap 4 the first time in his hurdling career and a first time tongue tie is applied. The ease in grade obviously means he'll find the opposition easier but its the application of the first time tongue tie that really catches my eye. In a lot of his races, Red Hot Poker has travelled into the race very nicely before not finding as much as would have been expected which is often as associated with a wind issue and if the application of the tongue tie help get more oxygen into his lungs it could see a massive improvement. With trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies in fine form and son Sam taking the ride, I'm confident Red Hot Poker can secure his first success on British soil off a mark he's proven that he can go close off and with the drop in class and tongue tie hopefully holding the oracle, I'm confident that this lightly raced gelding can land this contest in fine style.
Not the busiest days or best days racing today, and so its a no bet day... But i still looked at the Market Rasen card for something to do... 12.40 - Red Jade, 11/10 1.10 - Uxizandre, 4/6 1.40 - Moturgeon, 3/1 2.10 - Mister Hyde, 11/8 2.40 - Red Hot Poker, 11/2 - Not the 8/1 that ROTO put up... 3.10 - Silver Steel, 7/2 3.40 - Dark Energy, 9/2 Had a little bit on ROTO's pick but the rest ive left alone...
Afternoon, troops. Hope everyone well. It certainly ain't the greatest day’s racing ever today but I’ll nominate a possible rose amongst the many thorns: Hint of Promise (5.10 Kempton Park) – what a lovely name for a filly, by the way. This daughter of Beat Hollow is also exceptionally bred given that her dam is a sister to Zafonic. Hint of Promise has shown progressive form on her 3 starts to date and a reproduction of her 2nd, at Wolverhampton last time, should be good enough to see that promise fulfilled this evening in a pretty poor maiden. Given her pedigree I’m sure old boy Roger Charlton’s brief is to get a win into her pronto prior to the old girl being dispatched to the old breeding shed. I think that will be achieved here and in the process enhance her future prospects as a broodmare. Good luck to all.
Only bet for me today Papiss Cisse to score a hat-trick (will wait for starting line ups). Confident bet this I watched Newcastle play Maritimo (0-0) and Shola Ameobi must have had about 5 chances. I think Cisse will start tonight to get his confidence up and I still have no doubts that if he gets a clear chance he will put it in the back of the net. Maritimo are a very poor side this will be around 5-0 to Newcastle CISSE TO SCORE A HAT-TRICK AT 22/1 (BET365) is a good bet follow me in
Not betting at Market Rasen like but this WAYWARD FROLIC will not be far away if he can get around imo. Was staying on strongly (although well beaten) behind two very useful horses last time out (Theatre Guide & Hinterlaand) before coming down at the last. He had stayed on past a 139 rated rival. He goes right up in distance today I expect a big run no way is he a 25/1 shot imo.
Afters All, busy busy day so far so not looked properly, A few from me for you to avoid though MR 3.40 Galley Slave 25/1 e/w Kemp 4.10 Mac Gille Eoin 9/4 Kemp 7.10 Hurry Up George 7/2
I disagree RV. If you check back he was just about to make a move pretty much at that flight which put paid to his chances. We'll never know what would have happened.
