3.20 Southwell Mullins Way 33/1 NAP Before anyone goes overboard, I mean NAP in terms of I think its the best bet of the day (value wise) as opposed to it being a lump job. Although risks clearly come attached to Mullins Way, I think Jo Hughes's 4 year old gelding has the potential to make a mockery of his current price tag on what is a career low mark on his fibresand debut. In his 17 career starts to date, Mullins Way has only recorded one victory on his handicap debut back in July 2011 when scored at Redcar off a mark of 83. Although winless since then, he has put in some very decent efforts earlier this year that make him look extremely well handicapped off a mark of 70. Back in February, he finished a fast finishing 0.5L beaten 2nd at Wolverhampton off a mark of 84 in a race won by Viva Ronaldo who subsequently went on to score on turf off a 9lb higher mark 3 starts later. In addition to this excellent effort, he ran a very nice race off a mark of 83 at Redcar when a 2L beaten 4th at Redcar in April over 1m and he followed that up with an excellent 1.75L beaten 4th back at Wolves on his next start later that month off the same mark. He's had 5 starts since his close up 4th at Wolves and although not at his best he's subsequently plummeted down to his current mark of 70 which looks very manageable. 5 starts back in May at Musselburgh over 9f I think he ran a lot better than his finishing position suggested when he was bang there in the firing line at the final furlong marker before tiring late on and getting eased at the finish. He then went on a 4 month break over the summer and on his reappearance in a Class 3 handicap at Leicester he was dropped out the back by Gemma Marshall and he never really got on terms. 3 starts back he was dropped out the back in another Class 3 contest at Newmarket and he never really looked like landing a blow and the same could be said at Windsor on soft ground last month. However, I thought he shaped a little better on his last start at Kempton last month in a race that has worked out extremely well (especially for the grade). Off a mark of 72 (had fallen 10lb since September), Mullins Way was dropped into a Class 5 handicap contest for the first time in his career and in the stalls beforehand he was a little restless and reared a few seconds before the stall opened. It looked a little like he stumbled leaving the stalls but J P Guillambert took a tug regardless and dropped him out in the rear of the field (he was dropped out the back in all 4 starts since his returning from a break). Turning into the home straight, Mullins Way was already getting niggled (which is normal for him). He looked as if he was about ready to make a move up the inside but he had nowhere to go and resultantly he was given an easy time of things as he came home in 10th. I'm not saying he would have been able to quicken up and get into contention but he certainly had nowhere to go which resulted in his jockey not giving him a hard time of things (which is true about his last 3 races where Guillambert has not raised the whip on him). Regardless of that, that race has worked out very well. From those in front of him, only 4 horses have come out since and all have franked the form in no uncertain terms on their only subsequent starts. The 3rd Roxelana won off the same mark, the 5th Dozy Joe got beaten a neck, the 6th Silverware won off a 1lb lower mark whilst the 7th Great Expectations ran an absolute blinder off a 2lb lower mark to finish a neck beaten 2nd in a 19 runner event at Doncaster. This makes his effort look all the better and I think he looked as if he was coming back to some semblance of form. Dropped a further 2lb, (12lb in his last 4 runs) I think the switch to Southwell could prove the oracle for Mullins Way as he has his 2nd start in a Class 5 handicap off a career low mark which is his first start on fibresand. Although not guaranteed to act on the surface, I've had a long look at his breeding and he really comes out well on that side of things. US Bred horses have a 14% win and 28% place rate on their fibresand debuts. Specifically related to Mullins Way, although his Sire Mr Greeley has only had 1 winner from 20 runners at the track, 45% of these runners have placed at Southwell so he shows up favourably in this regard. This 4 year old's Dam Aljawza has only had one of her progeny run at Southwell in the shape of Mullins Way's Half Sister Alsadaa who also won on her fibresand debut. Additionally, his Damsire Riverman has had 19 winners on fibresand whilst Grandsire Gone West has had 6 progeny win at Southwell so I think the chances of him acting on the surface look very promising and there is a definite possibility that he will improve because of it. Jo Hughes also boasts a fantastic 23% strike rate at the track and is in good form having a winner here the other day. Off a career low mark, I think Mullins Way has an excellent chance to return to form now switched to fibresand on what is clearly the easiest task in his career to date. Although not guaranteed to act on the surface, breeding certainly suggests he will relish it and perhaps improve for it. With the multitude of positives significantly outweighing doubts or negatives, I think he looks incredibly overpriced and 33/1 could be made look ridiculous at the end of the race tomorrow.
2.40 Folkestone Just Josie 15/2 I think 15/2 looks a more than fair price about Sheena West's unexposed 6 year old mare who is currently 2-2 over fences after scoring twice over today's C+D in December 2011/January 2012. After running in a 7f maiden for Gary Moore on debut back in late 2008 and a Novice Hurdle 11 months later in September 2009, Just Josie joined current connections in November 2010 where this mare had two relatively quick runs over hurdles to get her a handicap mark. With a mark of 86 now secured, Sheena West sent Just Josie into a handicap chase after an 11 month break where she broke her maiden tag in fine style beating the short price JP McManus favourite by 1.75L as the front two drew miles clear of the remainder. A month later and upped 9lb for that win she kept her unbeaten run going as she won in very easy fashion as she was nearly eased to a walk as she scored by 3L in January of this year. Although the form of that 5 runner race is dire, she couldn't have done it any easier and certainly looked on the upgrade. She's been off the track for nearly 11 months and she has to deal with a 10lb hike in the weights in a better race but I feel that she is very likely still ahead of the handicapper. The break isn't much of a concern given that she defied a similar one when landing her first chase and Sheena West will surely have her ready for this. Sheena West is in belting form at present with 4 winners from her last 10 NH runners and is particularly adept at readying horses from an absence. With the ground looking to come up fine, I think the 15/2 for a horse who is unbeaten over fences, is 2-2 over the C+D, 2-2 under Marc Goldstein and whose trainer is in cracking form makes her definitely overpriced and I'm confident this unexposed 6 year old can keep her perfect chasing record intact.
and thanks from me to Roto ... i had a great win on Swing Bill last week and a few bob more back on Camden - these insights really are terrific ... many thanks
Good morning all... Nowt that really caught the eye but after seeing ROTO put up Just Josie i seem to have the eye for the ladies today...!!! Two from Southwell to go with the lady from Folkstone... 12.50 - Katy's Secret, 6/1... Came a very close 6th in a bunched finish over the 7f's but i think the drop back to 6f where Katy's Secret is 2 wins from 4 on CD might benefit her... 1.50 - Mandy The Nag, 2/1... GLee takes the ride here for Ed Dunlop, in which he has a 33% strike rate for the trainer, plus Dunlop has had 2 winners out of his last 4 runners here... So its a Ladies Night, well day today, just for a bit of interest. A small £1 win patent with ROTO's lady included. Returns £287 so that i can take my lady out, and leave the missus at home... Only joking, id spend it on me instead... Good luck to all today...
Not Much to go with today although I like the look of Just Josie, just like ROTO, can see McCoy probably having a good day at Folkestone, but my main fancies are at Southwell 12.50 Captain Royale, 2.50 Sunnyside Tom Not got time to put reasons today, but best of luck to all those who play today
Lifted from the RacingPost... IMPERIAL COMMANDER will miss his intended comeback in Saturday's Betfair Chase after sustaining an injury during his preparation. The 2010 Gold Cup winner had been off the racecourse since bursting a blood vessel when pulled up in the 2011 renewal, and suffered a minor tendon injury last September that further delayed his return. He rejoined trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies two months ago and recent work suggested he was ready to pick up the threads of his career in the Haydock race he won in the same year as his Cheltenham triumph. This morning, however, Twiston-Davies reported that all plans had been put on hold until the New Year after scans revealed a fracture that will keep him off the gallops until at least Christmas. The trainer said: "The vet came and X-rayed him and we thought it was nothing, but it turned out to be a non-displaced fracture of the inside splint bone on his right hind leg. He must have hit it and although it's nothing major, and it's completely independent of any injury he's had in the past, we won't be able to work him for six weeks, which means the Betfair Chase and the King George are both out of the equation and we need to start planning again. "We'll carry on swimming him, so we won't lose too much time, and the obvious target would seem to be Cheltenham in January. "It's a real blow for us but these things happen in racing and we just have to get on with it." A shame that i was looking forward to seeing him out again... Lets hope he can get back to full fitness...
been given Reste Jeune in the 3.10 Folkstone. Have been told it should go close today, make of it what you will
Just got back from my lunch time trip to the bookies. I was fortunate enough to back Peak Seasons. Anyone watch the race? Brendan Powell took a certain winner over the wrong course down the final straight and Adam Wedge decided to cruise in allowing Peak Seasons to sneak up and catch him on the line earning me a nice wedge!
Can someone have a look at Mullins Way's replay for me please and tell me if I'm being crazy in thinking that Guillambert didn't try there.
Hmmmmm... it was backed into 14's . I guess it wasn't all the 606 cash .. so someone musy have fancied it a bit .. so it shoulfd have been a trier ?? - cant see the race at the moment .
Just watched the race ROTO and all i can say is that he never once took the whip to him, always had both hands on the reins, but was pushing him on when coming out of the final turn... All the other jockeys were giving the whip to get a better effort so maybe if your going to be hard on him yes, i do think he wasnt giving all... But i dont think it was a race that cost him because of it...
Pretty poor days racing today so i have been concentrating my efforts on tonights football. The champions league has been a minefield all season so been looking at the league 1 and league 2 matches. Doncaster at 15/8 are a ridiculously big price away at carlisle. Carlisle's home record reads W2 D2 L5 and they have conceded 22 goals already including a 4-1 defeat at home to leyton orient at the weekend. Doncasters away record is a very decent W6 D2 L1. Elsewhere Scunthorpe are 6/5 at home to bury. They seem to be turning a corner under Brian Laws being unbeaten in their last three and are against a poor bury team with a poor away record i think odds against on scunthorpe is a very good price. 14/1 on a Doncaster, Scunthorpe, Sheff Utd, Rotherham fourfold is a very nice price indeed!
You're asking for trouble betting on the Rovers, amazingly though we've only lost 1 game in 9 away from home, our home form is a different matter, so Rovers could be worth a punt tonight, though 13/8 seems short
I'm with Brough 13/8 I think is a great bet I will be having the same bet as Brough but replacing Scunthorpe with Burton Albion. Although Scunthorpe have imrproved under Laws they had a tough game on Saturday having to play with 10 men for the last half hour. I also fell Bury have improved under Kevin Blackwell with Saturday's loss away at Colchester there first defeat in 6 having won 4 of those games
