Gents. I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend. Cheltenham and Punchy served up real spectacle and a lot to ponder over the next few days. Unfortunately the feast now turns not famine as quality racing is thin on the ground on Monday. I will be betting at Plumpton in the first and last races. I don't rate a certain Miss Emma Lavelle as a trainer. For all that she can ready a horse it seems they have far more gambles go astray as they land them which gives me the distinct impression she's not particularly good at placing her horses. With that in mind my enthusiasm for Good Boy Jackson is not what it would be if, for instance, the often under rated and yet excellent trainer, Dr Newland trained him. Nevertheless, I do think there has been enough promise thus far to tip up and place a wager on this chap. The fav has a penalty, the Henderson horse couldn't buy a win in a bumper and the Vaughan horse has shown little to get excited about thus far over hurdles. The selection ran well first time out against a decent Rebecca Curtis horse, One Term. He was only 3.5 lengths second and ran a little green. He didn't improve in a competitive Cheltenham race next time out but that doesn't worry me as he'll have learnt a lot from the experience against some decent horses. I expect an each way price. In the bumper I expect the Greatrex horse Mixologist to make amends for failing first time out. Boring I know but a standout selection.
2.20 Plumpton Camden 9/2 Already a fair bit of money around for Oliver Sherwood's 6 year old as he opened 8/1 but I think he is still decent value at 9/2 and I think he has the potential to make a mockery off his mark of 115 on what is his handicap debut over fences. A winner of a bumper on his debut under rules from the talented Water Garden, (now 133 rated over hurdles) Camden was also twice a very impressive winner over hurdles in his novice year scoring in both Maiden and Novice events by double figures. The Novice hurdle in which he scored by 12L has worked out to be very decent form as he conceded 6lb to the well beaten 2nd Rossmore Lad who went on to score in a handicap hurdle impressively off a mark of 117 (albeit it 11 months later). After this impressive success, Camden was assigned a mark of 130 and although well beaten in his 4 handicap hurdles after that (marks ranging from 130-125) its clear that he is quite a talented performer. Camden made his chasing debut at the beginning of the month on the back of 7 month absence in what I think will turn out to be a pretty decent Beginners Chase at Stratford over 2m7f in the mud where he ran what I thought was a very promising debut over the larger obstacles. Helping to set the pace throughout, Camden's jumping impressed me greatly and he traveled pretty well and was part of a group of 5 that forged clear of the rest of the field. I think the combination of the testing conditions and it being his first run under rules for 200 days saw him get quite tired late on and he certainly wasn't unduly overexerted when his chance of winning was beaten. Although he won on his rules debut, (on the back of an 8th month absence) I think he is entitled to strip a lot fitter for that run and he should be spot on for this today. Today represents a much easier contest for this gelding and based on his hurdles form I think a mark of 115 looks potentially very lenient. In addition, I think he's probably going to prove better over fences (won a pretty decent Point to Point) after what was a more than satisfactory introduction over fences. He's dropped back to 2m4f today which I don't think should pose much of an issue and neither should the ground. Regular pilot Aidan Coleman takes over in the saddle again and this represents the in form trainer Oliver Sherwood's only runner of the day. He's got two more entries later in the week so it wouldn't surprise me at all if Camden was lined up to land a couple of quick runs over fences. If his reappearance run has put him spot on for this, I think he's got an excellent chance in this Class 4 handicap and although its not the sort of race to go crazy on it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he demolished this field and I think 9/2 represents more than a fair price.
Couldn't agree more, thought we would have easily won had it stayed 11v11 , we were still the better team with 10!!
seems to be a bit of interest in frequency 4.30 at wolverhampton, from 20's into 12's, last 2 losses on heavy ground, 6 wins on the all weather, decent draw, so ive joined in with a few sheckles e/w, any thoughts?
capable on its day, had been looking well handicapped for a while this season, backed it a few times, they got the win off 74, id say the handicapper has it off 77 in a race like this, the interesting horse in this race for me is the bottom weight Warfare, 3rd run back after a break, down to 76, could make a mockery of this lot.
Blimey folks, couldnt more disinterested in todays racing after a high quality weekend. Is this Saturday the Betfair Chase?
Yep and it is the fixed brush hurdle too. Friday we have a fair card likely at Ascot, but the rest of the week seems rather unappealing, unless you fancy a day out on the sand at Southwell or the polytrack at Kempton/Lingfield
Good morning all... Well not so much a good one as a dark, grey and unappealing day today... Ahhh, the good ole wintery weather... One from my tracker that ive only just opened up... Kaylif Aramis in the 3.40 @ Leicester... Its currently a 9/4 fav but im ok with that... Put it with ROTO's for a nice single/double...
I followed this horse last year, and to a nice little profit at the time, most of them on the AW as well. He is having his first run back on the AW today since March and with his last 2 runs being a bit of a worry i might well pass on him today... But as you say the last runs have been on heavy ground and so maybe the return to the more standard surface of the AW can bring a performance out of him... One i will be watching as its a horse i have followed before and do like him...
Not much to go on today so going to put up an outside chance in the 4.00 Wolverhampton. Lucky Dan 14/1 previous c+d winner who if fancies running today could be a good price at 14's. Elsewhere will go for Act of Kalanisi in the 2.10 Leicester and On The Feather 2.40 Plumpton Good Luck to all who do play today
Bloody hell. Good Boy Jackson has regressed. When your bet is backed into 7's from 14/1 you're generally pretty hopeful of a good run but from the drop of the flag it was pulling the jockey's arms off. Absolutely no chance of winning and i'll not be backing it again.
Hmm I was going to put up Lord Singer in the 2:20 at Plump but now seeing Roto has gone for something else in the same race i'm not so sure now...
