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Paddy Power Gold Cup Day- 17th November Daily Thread

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by woolcombe-folly007, Nov 16, 2012.

  1. ROTO

    ROTO Well-Known Member

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    ‎3.10 Uttoxeter

    Qualitee 10/1


    I really fancy the chance of Claire Dyson's 7 year old mare who I think looks poised to run a massive race after her recent reappearance run on the back of a 10 month absence. Formerly a modest maiden hurdler, Chasing definitely seems to be Qualitee's game where she has 2 wins from her 4 starts in this sphere and who looked very progressive before her near year long absence. After a long year of hurdling in 2011, Qualitee made her chasing debut in a handicap when a distant 4th but she used that experience to great use when absolutely bolting up on her 2nd start off a mark of 86 at todays course by an eased down 17L 6 days after her chasing debut. She made pretty much all that day and ground her rivals into submission with some excellent jumping to score in emphatic fashion. She didn't beat trees that day either as the 3rd The Darling Boy scored on his next start off the same mark (albeit on the back of a 7 month break) and was beaten 0.25L on his only subsequent chase off a 10lb higher mark. 9 days later and off a 5lb higher mark of 91 Qualitee repeated the feat when again an excellent round of jumping (she had a slight tendency to jump right handed) pummeled her rivals into submission as she won eased down by 12L when upped to todays trip of 2m4f for the first time over hurdles. The form of that race isn't up to much but she beat what was put in front of her very well and it was a really excellent showing.

    LTO at Ludlow she was dropped back to 2m off a mark of 100 where she put in a performance better than the bare result when she really shaped as if she needed the run. Under Nick Scholfield, this mare travelled into the race very nicely before being headed at 4 out by the eventual winner. She wasn't overly pressed until the run in when her jockey gave her a few whips to make her run out to the line as she was beaten 23L in 5th. She returns to the scene of her first triumph Uttoxeter and is back over 20f today and I'm glad to see she is back at a left hand track as she does have that tendency to jump left handed. Tom O'Brien gets back in the saddle today and has a perfect record on this mare after partnering her to her two chasing successes. Trainer Claire Dyson has hit a really rich vein of form the past couple of months after a spell in the doldrums and can't do much wrong at present. Dropped 1lb to a mark of 99, Qualitee is only 8lb higher than her easy success at the back end of last year and on that effort alone she looks more than capable of scoring off her current mark. Add in that she has only had 4 starts in this sphere and looked very progressive before her break and it can only add significantly to your confidence. Although she is taking on some in form rivals today, I'm very confident of a massive showing and I think 10/1 massively overstates her chances. For those of you inclined, I'm fairly certain she's going to start about half the price she currently is so she represents a very good opportunity of backing to lay off closer to the time for a free bet.
     
    #21
  2. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor Staff Member

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    Hope you have a cracking day at Uttoxeter niksboy <ok>

    I like Lord Of House in the opener - I think his debut run at Aintree behind Gevrey Chambertain looks pretty solid - travelled well for a long way that day but couldn't live with the front 2 who both look useful. In the bumper I like the look of Malcolm Jefferson's Cape York at a nice price. He was 6th on debut in what looks like a above-average bumper at Aintree won by Broadway Buffalo, coming home with a decent rattle once the penny dropped.

    Jockey to follow for me is Noel Fehily who looks to have a nice book of rides <ok>
     
    #22
  3. simmo250785

    simmo250785 Member

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    Nice write ups ROTO. Best of luck. Im on walkon and divers today. Quite like ifbutandwhy in last too.
    Anyone watching morning line? Hes a character that hunt ball owner. This is why i love jumps!
     
    #23
  4. simmo250785

    simmo250785 Member

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    And even a bit of shed 7 at the end!
     
    #24
  5. ffctom_b

    ffctom_b Member

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    A few for me today

    1.20 Cheltenham Sea of Thunder 4/1

    Probably would have won this last year but for a mistake a couple from home, and will go close again and should have a good battle up the hill with Sire Collonges, but better off in the weights could make the difference

    1.55 Cheltenham Bradley 11/2

    Stayed on well up the hill behind Balthazar King on its last run at Cheltenham and the extra distance should play into its hands if staying on at the finish again

    3.05 Cheltenham Monetary Fund 12/1

    Is in good form after a good win at Musselburgh last time out and the Williams/Coleman coombination could hardly be in better form at the moment. Has to be the value call in my opinion at this price
     
    #25
  6. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Have taken some 8/1 on Al Ferof.

    They are still serious about a King George, Ruby loves the horse, he finally goes up in trip, and he has the best piece of open age form.

    He can run not only to his mark but IMO beyond it.


    It might be telling that Daryl Jacob rode Kauto Stone in Ireland- Ruby has always said Al Ferof would make a cracking King George ride.

    I think Al Ferof can possibly run to 165 now he goes up in trip, which will make him tough to beat.
     
    #26

  7. niksboy

    niksboy Active Member

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    thank you for taking the time out to look at lowly Uttoxeter today guys, I have now written out the placepot, so I shall not have to waste too much "marstons" time picking my selections. Should have taken some 6's on Global Warming last night I see was mentioned on under the radar on M L and now in to 5/2.
    I'll give you my inhebriated feedback tonight. Good luck with all those Cheltenham bets this afternoon. Finally hope the super rams can dampen down the Crystal Palace euphoria this pm.
     
    #27
  8. Brough Tiger

    Brough Tiger Well-Known Member

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    Grands Crus the lay of the day for me. Can't be having 2/1 in a race this competitive about a horse that is yet to prove to me that he is the real deal. Far too many dangerous horses lurking lower down the weights and Al Ferof in there who has the best form on offer and who Paul Nicholls is extremely bullish about. Rather than trying to pick a winner I'm just going to lay grands crus!
     
    #28
  9. GGW

    GGW Well-Known Member

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    Overturn (STAR), Big Buck's, The Package, Grands Crus, Zarkandar, Cue Card, Sprinter Sacre, Flemenstar, Darlan, Dyanste


    Anyone else done the Tote 10 to follow? Would love to have some crack about it over the season.
     
    #29
  10. Bostonbob

    Bostonbob Well-Known Member

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    I know people will wonder if I&#8217;ve lost the plot putting him forward as a likely winner, but here&#8217;s one who won&#8217;t be gobsmacked should he deliver. The old Mikael had an unbelievable action and I&#8217;ve a feeling it&#8217;s back.

    From Ruby's Irish Examiner piece today. Come on fella
     
    #30
  11. GGW

    GGW Well-Known Member

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    I cannot ignore Hunt Ball at 9s. He won a competitive Cheltenham handicap off a) Top Weight b) 142 c) He won as he pleased. For me he simply didn't stay at Aintree, plus forgive him the run if not for that then because he had a hard season and raced at Cheltenham. Plus, if you dig into that Aintree form you'll see he's run a neck to Burton Port (167) and beaten Medermit (166). He runs today off of 157. I still think Grand Crus will be tough to beat but Hunt Ball shouldn't be 9/1 in my book.
     
    #31
  12. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    Scoop 6 Lucky 63

    1:55 Chelt Harry the Viking
    2:15 Ling Farraaj
    2:35 Chelt Walkon
    2:50 Ling Hezmah
    3:05 Chelt Abnaki
    3:40 Chelt Buy Back Bob
     
    #32
  13. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    3.40 Cheltenham
    Able Deputy (Nap) ....20/1 (various)


    After being well beaten by both Molotof and Prospect Wells in his first two hurdle races, Kim Bailey's charge showed improved form to finish third to Darlan (beaten 8 lengths) in a Class 3 Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham.
    He then started favourite for his next race at Southwell (A maiden hurdle) but caught a tartar and was well beaten by Nicky Henderson's Oscar Nominee- who subsequently ran a great third behind Attaglance in the Martin Pipe at The Festival.
    In his last race of the season, he returned to Cheltenham for a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle- finishing only a couple of lengths behind the useful Hinterland, when sixth to Module (off a mark of 119).
    Most of today's field have competed in much poorer company than my fancy- who gets in here off a mark of 117 or 110 if you take off his jockey's allowance.
    If fit to do himself justice, Able Deputy should make a bold showing in this Class 3 Handicap, and he is a sporting Nap.
     
    #33
  14. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    Vasco Du Ronceray looks a good thing in the 12:45 at Chelthenam and 15/8 is decent about a very exciting looking horse. In the Paddy Power i've backed Calgary Bay e/w and have begun prayer service immediately, a bet for interest more so than seriousness.

    Best of luck with all the bets today guy's.
     
    #34
  15. Brough Tiger

    Brough Tiger Well-Known Member

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    Ive done it. Gone for -

    Big Buck's (star), Cue Card, Darlan, Flemenstar, Silviniaco Conti, Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig, Tidal Bay, Grands Crus, Sanctuaire
     
    #35
  16. Joe Lively

    Joe Lively Member

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    Always good to see the selections you backed last night drifting like a bastard barge!

    Not got a good feeling about today! <laugh>
     
    #36
  17. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    I didnt see the show but i will presume they played 'Going For Gold...' Good record that...<ok>

    In fact its the only good song they did...<laugh>
     
    #37
  18. Brough Tiger

    Brough Tiger Well-Known Member

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    Big fan of Chasing Rainbows myself
     
    #38
  19. GGW

    GGW Well-Known Member

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    Spotted something very interesting. Teaforthree runs off of 146 (In my book a fair mark) but with 10lb claimer P.Corbett on top. My first thought was that Curtis was hoping to give her charge an easy time but I notice the same jockey and trainer combo won the Byrne Group Handicap Listed Chase on the 3rd of Nov. Maybe this is a real plot to land a nice prize. 8/1 a bet.


    Also Sea of Thunder today at 6/1 is far, far too big.
     
    #39
  20. GGW

    GGW Well-Known Member

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    At the risk of being slated for mentioning flat racing, C4 shows two from Lingers today. The 2.15 looks to be a match race between Circumvent (11/4) and Farraaj (2/1) and I think the former can get get home in front given that the latter has never gone on this surface or trip before and Circumvent seems to save his best for the AW of Lingfield (Winter Derby 3rd).
     
    #40

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