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Thursday 15th November Daily Thread

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by ROTO, Nov 15, 2012.

  1. ROTO

    ROTO Well-Known Member

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    3.10 Taunton

    Bob's Legend 16/1 NAP

    I really like the chances of Martin Bosley's 6 year old who was a massive eye catcher in my books LTO on his handicap debut off a mark of 106 and if that return run on the back of a 270 day absence then I think he has an excellent chance of landing this Class 4 event on what will only be his 2nd start in a handicap. After two runs in bumpers back in 2010 for Linda Jewell, Bob's Legend embarked upon his hurdles career for Martin Bosley in November in a Class 4 Novice Hurdle last year. I have to say it was an effort that screamed of a lot of promise for all his atrocious jumping. On the back of a 19 month absence since,this gelding was held up in the rear of the field by Andrew Thornton and for the entire contest his jumping was about as novicey as your ever likely to see - if it transpired that he had never even seen a hurdle before that race it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest as that's how bad his jumping was. Nevertheless (and somewhat amazingly) he remained on the bridle the whole way through the contest as he just kept progressing through the field passing 8 of his 14 rivals as he finished a completely not knocked about 17L beaten 6th. Although that race wasn't very good, to jump that badly yet make what was very good and seemingly effortless headway was rather eye catching and he did really come across as a horse who could have a very good engine. A month later he ran at Fakenham in what has turned out to be a pretty decent maiden and although beaten a long way in 6th, he was again never knocked about in a race where the first 3 home are now rated 134, 126 and 120. Although improved, his jumping still left a lot to be desired as he showed a tendency to jump right handed.

    His final start of the 2011/2012 season came in February of this year at Doncaster where Bob's Legend again put in a display of considerable encouragement when a not knocked about 21L beaten 6th in what again looks a very Novice contest. After being quite keen and free in the early stages of the contest, Bob's Legend sat a few lengths of the leading group of 8 for most of the contest where he still jumped a little novicey (considerably better than his first two starts over hurdles). In between the 4th and 3rd last flights, he seemed to be getting a little lazy so Andrew Thornton gave him a big whip with the stick - the only time I have seen him touched with the whip in his 4 starts over hurdles - and he responded to it well as he, once again, was not unduly knocked about as he finished a good 6th. The form of that race looks very strong with the winner Oscar Nominee coming out and getting beaten only 2 necks in the Conditional Jockeys handicap at the Cheltenham festival a month later off a mark of 135 whilst the 2nd Victor Leudorom won 4 Novice Hurdles in a row after this and is now rated 132. Although he may not have troubled these two if asked for everything (could well have), he would have finished a damn sight closer and regardless of this he's now playing a completely different ball game now handicapping off a mark of 106.

    Last month Bob's Legend made a very eye catching handicap debut off his current mark at Ludlow on the back of a 270 day absence and it seemed as clear as day that this was merely a pipe opener for him. On his blog trainer Martin Bosley stated "Bob's Legend has grown into a much stronger horse and mentally much more relaxed" and it certainly seemed to be the case. Settled at the rear of the field, Bob's Legend clearly had a fair bit of schooling over hurdles as he was much tidier over his obstacles.On the long run before the home straight for the final 3 flights, Bob's Legend scythed through the field in effortless fashion as he travelled as well as anything to sit just in behind the leading 4 and it looked as if he was going to play a massive hand in the race. However he was never given any urging to attempt to play a hand in the finish as he came home at his own pace to finish nearly 20L beaten in 6th. Once again, that seems a very good contest with the easy winner Sporting Boy subsequently annihilating a better race under a 7lb penalty whilst the 2nd Stevie Thunder and 4th Dizzy River have both run up to about the same level of form on their next two starts. In his blog after the race, Martin Bosley stated " He looked amazing, a quality horse in looks and performance - looked like a young footballer having his first game of the season...A super run for an inexperienced horse and looking like a winner in due course". I think its a very accurate summation of the performance and I couldn't agree more about him being a winner in waiting.

    With only 4 hurdling efforts under his belt, he's clearly open to considerable improvement (and I expect an awful lot of that). Handicapping was clearly always going to be his game and I think he looks more than capable of defying his current mark of 106 - and this is without me ever seeing the button pushed on him! I don't think he could have been given a nicer reappearance run and I think that should have him absolutely spot on for this. Martin Bosley has recently got himself off the cold list with a winner 3 weeks ago and based on Bob's Legend's reappearance it seems like he has his string in very good order. Current favourite Dormouse has to be taken on for me for two simple reasons. Firstly, he has never won two consecutive races in his career and secondly history dictates so. His win last week came in a race he to took in 2011 and he also ran in this race last year when finishing 4th and although looking on a good mark he's a horse that has to be opposed. With his mark looking very manageable, his trainer getting back into form and his lovely reappearance run, I think 16/1 is an absolutely fantastic price about this 6 year old and if they lift the handbrake on him today I envisage him taking an awful lot of beating.
     
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  2. ROTO

    ROTO Well-Known Member

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    It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Martin Bosley has a bit of a planned gamble with his 4 runners tomorrow.

    1.10 Taunton Vinnies Girl 14/1

    A very interesting contender in the opener under Andrew Thornton. She showed great improvement on handicap debut off this mark last month when finishing less than a 5L beaten 3rd. In a race that went off at a crawl over 2m5f, she pulled very hard early on and the combination of having to nearly set the pace and getting tired late on saw her get overtaken late on. Should be a better pace today and upped in trip she looks to be on a good mark and should run well.

    2.30 Ludlow Topthorn 2/1

    Not a horse that has been fixed for a gamble but won his first race LTO beating today’s 2nd fav Bennys Quest with ears pricked last month over C+D. Raised 9lb but looks well capable of defying that mark.

    3.10 Taunton Bob's Legend 16/1

    See above

    3.50 Southwell Arachnophobia 25/1

    Comes here after a 3 month absence sporting first time blinkers. Trainer said two starts ago that he was a well handicapped animal when beaten an unlucky/staying on 1L beaten 4th over 6f (1lb lower today and 7f is his trip). Ran a good 2nd over C+D (beaten by an easy winner) off a 6lb higher mark in a better race on the back of a break wearing a first time visor back at the start of the year so looks break/new headgear combination looks significant.

    I could be completely wrong about all these but potential certainly exists. If doing a 1 quid e/w Lucky 15 with the prices on Bet365 at the moment (14/1, 14/1, 7/4 & 25/1) you'd get a maximum return of over 26 grand for a 30 quid outlay.
     
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  3. chesneywold

    chesneywold Member

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    Great writeup as ever roto. Do you have any thoughts on monzino today? I know hes one you followed previously. After cruising to the lead over 2 miles last time before fading they have dropped him back to 1m4 today. 16-1 seems a fair price.
     
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  4. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Morning all. Looking at the bumpers at Taunton and Ludlow today and I'm quite confident that the 2 favourites will oblige.

    At Taunton, AP rides Hare In A Round for Rebecca Curtis and the pair have a formidable strike rate. Hare In A Round ran in a bumper at Worcester a month ago under claimer Patrick Corbett and finished a close-up 3rd to Bob Tucker and Brassick. He was squeezed up quite badly in the final furlong and couldn't pick up again when switched to find room. The 2nd that day, Brassick, has since gone on to score nicely in a novice hurdle, beating the more experienced Present View with the pair miles clear of the rest. The Nicholls horse is respected but wasn't nearly as impressive as Hare In A Round on debut and this should be another winner for McCoy.

    Over at Ludlow, Don McCain introduces a very nice type in Lord Navits, a gelding by Golan out of an unraced Lord Americo mare. Lord Navits readily took a P2P at Limavady last year from a horse called Pure Style, who is now with Charlie Longsden and has 2 victories and 3 second places to his name since being beaten by Lord Navits (Pure Style's form includes a bumper win at Stratford and fine 2nds behind Empiracle and Polly Peachum).

    7/4 Hare In A Round and 9/4 Lord Navits - win singles and a barney rubble.

    Best of luck everyone <ok>
     
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  5. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Clonmel deserve a mention for putting on a cracking card today. Highlight of the card, and their biggest race of the year, is the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase where Sizing Europe will be a warm order to gain his second success of the season. Tranquil Sea has won the race for the last 2 years and will probably give Henry De Bromhead's charge most to think about. The very next race on the card, a Grade 3 mares chase, is an absolute cracker with the enigmatic Knockfierna locking hornes with our Girl Salley and Tarla. I think the 8/1 available about Our Girl Salley is a very nice e/w price, but Tarla looks the one to be on for the victory. The supporting card also have some eyecatchers. In the opener, Edward O'Grady's Lord Of Lords makes his hurdles debut after absolutely sluicing up in a bumper last spring, and faces Willie Mullins' The Paparrazi Kid. In the closing bumper Gigginstown unleash another potentially decent sort in the Willie Mullins trained Turnandgo but was there ever a more appropriately named runner than Shark Hanlon's Giantofaman??
     
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  6. Bostonbob

    Bostonbob Well-Known Member

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    2.10 Taunton Savant Bleu 10/3 with Coral is a big price.
     
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  7. ffctom_b

    ffctom_b Member

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    1.25 Clonmel Chu Chu Thomas
     
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  8. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    Morning all, and many thanks ROTO...!!! After looking at the Taunton 3.10 for the Ardent comp, and then making my 3 picks, i see that you have Napped one that i thought had a half chance at best...<laugh><laugh>

    So not only am i taking on BostonBob's picks, but both of us are taking your selection on as well...<yikes>

    My three for interest are Taigan, Dormouse, First Morning...<ok>


    Oh well back to the drawing board while a look at the Taunton card again...<cheers>
     
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  9. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    Morning Tom... Hope your well...<ok>
     
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  10. ffctom_b

    ffctom_b Member

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    Yeah, all good, just not enough time to study properly, work keeps getting in the way <laugh>
     
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  11. ffctom_b

    ffctom_b Member

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    A few more today

    Ludlow 3.30 Hold Court 7/4

    Won well last time out at Ludlow, upped in trip today but shouldn't be a problem with the distance as has experience in ptp over further and should be a clear winner again despite the rise in weights.

    Taunton 3.40 Quayside Court 13/2

    Currently being backed in, could be an each way option in this race as showed up for long way last time out at Wincanton before falling. Was alongside Malin Head at the time who went on to finish 3rd, and I think this one offers better value than Malin Head today as long as it has recovered from the fall.
     
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  12. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    Taunton...

    1.10 - Orion Express, 7/1
    1.40 - Josh's Dreamway, 9/4... bet
    2.10 - Caminero, 7/2
    2.40 - The Romford Pele, eve
    3.10 - Taigan, 7/1... bet
    3.40 - Malin Head, 5/2
    4.10 - Hare In A Round, 7/4... bet

    Good luck to all today...<cheers>
     
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  13. ifitjumpsitwins

    ifitjumpsitwins New Member

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    There is a big word about for the Martin Keighley-trained Typhon de Guye in the 1.10. As reported earlier, he was the subject of a market move.

    Taken from the racing post website

    I am sure it was 33s this morning now showing best price 7s
     
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  14. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    I think Orion Express has come of the tracks... 10/1 now and still going out...<laugh><laugh>
     
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  15. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    Well they got that one right...<applause>

    Got 2nd, even though i didnt bet on it...
     
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  16. rainbowview

    rainbowview Well-Known Member

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    Ifitjumpsitwins <applause>
     
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  17. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
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    Market was right about Typhon then <ok>

    Afternoon chaps.

    ROTO: I took a long hard look at Bob's Legend last night and couldn't decide if he was a slow starter or just a slow horse. I HAD decided he was just slow, but you have convinced me otherwise - I'll join you in the punt <ok>
     
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  18. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    I see you have a new avatar RV - is it a self portrait?
     
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  19. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
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    Nice one Chu Chu Tom :)
     
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  20. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    Nice one Tom...<ok>
     
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