Well, I wasn't going to write any more articles this season but I don't think there could be a better time to kick off with Grands Crus. The Paddy Power Gold Cup gets the ball well and truly rolling for National Hunt enthusiasts and we have a horse here who divdes opinion, is loved by many, and whether he makes it as a Grade 1 chaser or not- a horse with quite enormous talent. Just a quick reminder of last years 8 Episodes for 2011/12: Episode 1: Quito De La Roque Episode 2- Cue Card Episode 3: Peddlers Cross Episode 4: Time For Rupert Episode 5: Al Ferof Episode 6- Master Minded Episode 7- Boston Bob Episode 8: Grands Crus So then, Grands Crus... He was last years final episode that I wrote just a week before the RSA and at that point there was still no decision on what race he would run in- the RSA Chase or the Gold Cup. That in itself tells you the sort of regard some of us held him in, and it will be interesting to see how we feel and how he fares this time around. At the time, his win in the Feltham was considered by many a bit of a demolition, taking the race by the scruff of the neck with over a mile to go, and quickening clear to win what looked decisively. However, when you watch that footage again now, you can almost see what happened in the RSA waiting to happen- being outstayed decisively late on in the race, and don't be fooled by Tom Scudamore 'easing him down'. [video=youtube;UhqlZj2COrc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhqlZj2COrc[/video] [video=youtube;NiAfJEshjpQ]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NiAfJEshjpQ[/video] I just think Grands Crus lacks a bit of stamina but more so a turn of foot. His cruising speed is so phenomenally high I think it takes the edge off him late on in races and therefore looking at him now, I couldn't be having him in a Gold Cup UNLESS it came up soft, because he absolutely reslishes soft underfoot conditions and the difference between him in the Feltham and in the RSA IMO is the ground. He went through the ground far better at Kempton and had Silviniano Conti and Bobs Worth in big trouble some way out, though their stamina kept them involved in the race late on. On goode ground at Cheltenham against very good horses, he didn't quicken away so easily with his cruising speed and get the lead he got in the Feltham, and therefore when it came down to stamina at Prestbury Park, First Lieutenant, Bobs Worth, and (in the Jewson) Sir Des Champs all ran their career best over fences, highlighting the stamina side of novice chasing. That brings us to a Grade 3 handicap at a trip less than 3 miles- ideal you say?! There is no doubt that Grands Crus on best form last year (Feltham) is fairly treated (note I don't say well in!) off 157. You have to remember though that to start winning handicaps off anything above 160, you HAVE to produce Grade1 level performances and the idea that this will be a penalty kick is simply ludicrous. It is a penalty kick if he runs to a mark of 170- but do you honestly believe he is at that level? The jury is still out and this week might tell us a little bit more. The trip is ideal for him though and if he injects some pace he will ask some big questions of a lot of these horses but some of these look nicely treated, especially other second season chasers such as WALKON (who off just 10st 6, Grands Crus must concede a STONE to) and even AL FEROF who at 2lb higher than Grands Crus must be equally feared, especially improving up in trip and would have been an Arkle runner up if not for a bad mistake 3 out. If this was soft ground on Saturday I think Grands Crus would be a very worthy favourite but I think this is more competitive than it looks and it reminds me of the 2011 Supreme Novice where Cue Card was always going to run well, but at 5/2 was to short given the stern opposition (as it turned out, Sprinter Sacre, Spirit Son, and Al Ferof!). As far as the rest of his season goes- what would be your route? If he is serious about a King George then he has to go very close this weekend and probably has to show the beating of Al Ferof receiving 2lb, so this is an interesting starting point in measuting his mark in terms of ability. After that, the Ryanair might be a serious option because of the trip, but depending on how this weekend goes, the Gold Cup is not out of the question. He beat Champion Court 10L over this trip on reappearance last season so on a line through Sir Des Champs, that form looks good and an exciting season could yet be ahead, with bucketfuls of talent lying within an array of question marks. Cheers for reading- the next episode in a week or two is open to the forum- anyone who volunteers can write it and you can choose your own horse to write about. (Assuming there is at least one or two bits of interest) -Toppy Under The Spotlight Index - 2012/13
Toppy, great effort and congrats for all the work you've put in. Re. Grands Crus, I can't believe that a horse who stays 3 miles over hurdles at Cheltenham doesn't get three miles over fences. Whether he expends more energy when fencing is a different matter. In the RSA, Scudamore kept taking a tug as Grands Crus jumped past horses. It may well be that he "disappointed" the horse. He would have been better served by letting him take up the running. The other problem is you just can't equate hurdling with fencing- ask Big Bucks! And sometimes, there just isn't a logical reason why not. Grands Crus certainly seemed to jump beautifully in the RSA- and yet had nothing left. Maybe he's just a "short runner." Who knows, but I'd certainly advocate a more attacking policy in his races this year- and see what happens. As regards the Paddy Power, he's very poor value at the price, and I think Champion Court (and others) will provide much sterner opposition this year- since he improved later on last season. Not to mention the rest of the opposition in Saturday's race. There's a lot of very useful animals to contend with.
I think your spot on with his mark of 157 being fair Toppy. But I really don't think fair is good enough. You can guarantee that there are going to be a few horses in this race that are at least 5lb or 6lb better than their current mark and possibly even up to 10lb. That would mean Grand Crus would have to run to a mark in the mid 160s to land this and I really don't see that happening. Couldn't back him with anyones money at 9/4 and I think his price will get even sillier on the day. If he dips to about 15/8 or 7/4 I'm going to be laying him, especially in a field of 22 runners. I think he probably has the ability to win at some stage off his current mark but I don't think he's well enough handicapped in this field. Plus, this has gone to horses rated lower than 151 for quite a while (although Poquelin shouldering 163 will help the field) and its worth noting that Long Run couldn't win off a mark of 158 the year season he won the Gold Cup. If he wins fair play to him as it will take some performance but I personally think you've got to have a few screws loose to do. Would love if Hunt Ball won (although off 157 its basically the same argument as above) but no idea what I'll be backing yet.
To be honest I'm not a fan in general and took a firm line last March against him. It's interesting to read your POV with regards to Saturday. If GC does win off this mark where do you line him up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup market? Does it make him favourite?
Nice summary Toppy and I agree fully on the 157 rating. That is, incidentally, the official rating Cue Card had prior to taking the Haldon Gold Cup and I see he has been raised to 165 after his victory whilst Edgardo Sol has been dropped a pound to 156. Is the handicapper having a laugh? Would Cue Card be capable of winning the Paddy Power off top weight? Anyway, I digress, and Grands Crus is clearly a horse to divide opinion. I backed him for the RSA and must say I was disappointed with how little he had left to offer. Only 12 months earlier he had battled all the way up the hill with Big Buck's. Did the extra furlong do him in the RSA? Is he a 3 mile horse and not a yard further? I actually think he will go very close on Saturday but, as others have already said, his price makes little appeal at the moment. Remember a few years ago a certain Imperial Commander took the race off 139 and I think this years winner will also be in that general area - maybe 137 - 147 range? Anything above Forpaddydeplasterer has it all to do in my book.
Great question. I think he will be backed into joint favouritism at the least, but that would be a gross overreaction when you look at the array of stamina horses in this market. Does anyone think the ground plays a part in his performances? His action looks made for soft IMO?
Here is something puzzling me- has Grands Crus got a short stride compared to a lot of chasers? His action seemes to short and high knee- hence my feelings about soft ground suiting. Watch the Feltham and then the RSA, he doesnt seem to gallop stoutly like Bobs Worth, Silviniano Conti, and First Lieutenant. That gives him the cruising speed egde but when the others hit top stride (though it takes them longer), they start to outstride him significantly? Alternatively of course, I might be talking absolute bollocks. On Saturday, does Al Ferof have a fairer mark on his run behind seasoned top level chasers Somersby and Finians Rainbow, with the idea that the step up in trip was always expected to suit?
Toppy - this might be bollox, but I thought I would do a quick comparison of Big Buck's World Hurdles to see if they would give us some clue as to how good Grands Crus performance was, and maybe where that puts him in terms of a horse's ability to travel 3 miles. 2012 - Big Buck's beat Voler La Vedette by 1.75 lengths on Good ground. Time was slow to standard by 3.2 secs. 2011 - Big Buck's beat Grands Crus by 1.75 lengths on Good ground. Time was slow to standard by 9.8 secs. 2010 - Big Buck's beat Time For Rupert by 3.25 lengths on Good ground. Time was slow to standard by 8.4 secs. 2009 - Big Buck's beat Punchestowns by 1.75 lengths on Gd-Soft ground. Time was slow to standard by 16 secs. That would put him, in terms of his ability to stay with Big Buck's over 3 miles, in the same ball park as Punchestowns and Time For Rupert. I then looked at Bobs Worth's run in the Albert Bartlett, which was just the day after Big Buck's third world hurdle in 2011. He covered the 3 miles / 12 fences on Good ground in a time just 1.2 seconds above standard. I realise this is all a bit tenuous but to me it showes that Grands Crus ran no better against Big Buck's than Punchestowns and Time For Rupert did, and also that Bobs Worth put up a better performance over hurdles (based on time) in 2011. This would make me favour Bobs Worth over 3 miles (and further) at Cheltenham. It probably also suggests Grands Crus is being overrated on his hurdles form?
Oddy, I think what you say is fair enough- up to a point (and with qualifications). Firstly, you could argue from those times that Bob's Worth may have beaten Big Buck's, but times mean nothing in Big Buck's' case. In my opinion, the stronger the gallop, the less chance the opposition has against him. Secondly,yes, the slower pace of Grands Crus' World Hurdle in 2011 may have helped him conserve his stamina, and Scudamore certainly tried to hold him up and 'do' Big Buck's for speed after the last. However, I've always loved watching three mile hurdles (especially at Cheltenham) and, in the sixties, George Todd had a wonderful staying hurdler called Nosey who ran away with the Stayer's Hurdle at the Festival. I particularly remember that the pacemaker in that race 'dropped his tongue' coming to the top of the hill for the last time- so knackered was he- and Todd made the comment that few horses "truly stay three miles round Cheltenham." Therefore, I must conclude that Grands Crus does in fact 'stay the trip' and should consequently have no problem on that score with the larger obstacles- where slightly less stamina is needed. Whether Grands Crus can only 'sustain' his 'kick' for a relatively short distance is another matter. Also, many top races have been lost at Cheltenham by jockeys 'disappointing' their mounts and not kicking on when full of running. That could have been the case in this year's RSA Chase, although it's hard to see how Grands Crus could have won- whatever tactics had been employed. Hence I don't know the answer to his problem and that disappointing performance.
Do you think he might be less exuberant this season Tam, being a bit older and all that? Would they be looking to try and get him better settled in his races? I guess we will see on Saturday and it's an interesting point you raise. If they set off down the downhill run from the top of the course down the back straight, and he is pulling double, should Scu let him go on or try and take a pull to conserve his energy. Given it is 2m4f I would have thought he'd let him go on, but that won't help him settle in the long term.
I feel that Grands Crus has been overrated on his hurdles form as you said Oddy. A horse that travels well in the World Hurdle and is in a slow run race will always be within a few lengths of Big Bucks, however that doesn't mean they are anywhere near as good. For me, his most visually impressive performance came in the Cleeve Hurdle. However when you look at what he beat that day a lot of the horses behind have done precious little since. That was his only win around Cheltenham over 3 miles. All his other wins over that distance have been on flatter tracks, Kempton, Haydock and Newbury (decent test of stamina but isn't Cheltenham). I just feel he doesn't get home in a true run race around Cheltenham over 3 miles. Whilst the trip is ideal for him on Saturday, I think he is giving too much weight to some very good horses.
TopClass/Tamerlo: Something is jogging the old memory about top hurdlers having a go at the big obstacles. Apart from a bit of harmless trail riding years ago, I know nothing about riding hosses, so wÃll have to defer to PN, WoolÃe, Famous (to name but 3 members who I know are experienced in this field), especially if I've got it all wrong! The excellent hurdler that I have in mind is Bula, winner of the Champion Hurdle in 1971 & 1972. He was tried over the fences, and the results were not too satisfactory, if I remember correctly. His trainer, the one-and-only Fred Winter, said that in his opinion the reason was that Bula did not arch his back sufficiently to make a good steeplechaser. He realised that only after he observed Bula jumping fences in actual races. So, that could be one reason that hurdlers, however good they are over this discipline, don't always make it over the big fences?
