Cheltenham Gold Cup Entries Released Runners and Form Much along the lines of Tam's Champion Hurdle thread, this is a thread to collect early thoughts on racing's Blue Riband and to chart progress of the main protagonists during the season. I'll start by looking at the ante post betting as of today, Tuesday 13th November (Bet365 prices quoted for simplicity): Sir Des Champs 6 Long Run 7 Bobs Worth 8 Flemenstar 8 Silviniaco Conti 12 The Giant Bolster 14 First Lieutenant 16 Grands Crus 16 Last Instalment 16 Hunt Ball 20 Kauto Stone 20 25/1 Bar Clearly we have a changing of the guard in the staying chasers division with both Denman and Kauto Star now retired. The obvious beneficiary would be: Long Run - who saw off the Ditcheat duo in such tremendous style in the 2011 renewal. Last season was one to forget for Nicky Henderson's charge, beaten by the evergreen Kauto Star in both the Betfair Chase and King George before being outstayed by the ill-fated Synchronised and The Giant Bolster up the Cheltenham hill last March. His jumping remains sketchy, particularly when under pressure, and question marks will continue to be raised around his jockey and these will never be answered until someone else gets on his back. He will undoutably be thereabouts but he no longer looks the spring-heeled young chaser who bounded to glory in March 2011. Sir Des Champs has just about everything in the book going for him - owned by the powerful Gigginstown Stud, trained by the impeccable Willie Mullins and already a dual Cheltenham festival winner. After winning the Jewson in March he really showed his ability to see out a trip when taking the Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown over 3m1f on soft/heavy from an admittedly poor field. For me those 2 festival wins are worth their weight in gold and he is rightly at the head of the market, but obviously we need to see him run this season to see how he's trained on. Bobs Worth is also a dual festival winner, having taken the Albert Bartlett 2 years ago and the RSA in 2012. He looked down and out having been a sick horse and beaten fair and square behind Invictus in the Reynoldstown yet came good in the RSA when digging in resolutely up the hill to touch off First Lieutenant. I can't help feeling he'll need to step up on that to be involved at the business end of the Gold Cup but he is certainly in the right hands and this season will be huge for him. Flemenstar is a horse I admire immensely. He is a great big brute of a specimen yet the way he gets from one side of a fence to another is all about grace and agility. His novice chase campaign was singularly impressive and he just seemed to get better as the season went on. His defeat of Big Zeb over 2 miles on seasonal reappaearance bodes well for the season and he will now be progressively upped in trip, firstly to 2m4f in the John Durkan, then to 3 miles in the Lexus where he may well lock horns with the prime of the Gigginstown operation such as Sir Des Champs and Last Instalment. His colourful trainer, Peter Casey, adds to the aura and the story and this could well turn into a real fairytale come March 2013. Silviniaco Conti has put in 2 visually impressive performances at Aintree and Wetherby and looks to be the Paul Nicholls first string for the race. He is another one who finished behind Invictus in the Reynoldstown and for me he still needs to produce a really good Grade 1 performance to convince that he is really up to Gold Cup standard. Whilst I'm not saying he can't, he does need to step up a level. First Lieutenant looks exposed at the top level and I am surprised to see him so high in the betting. I much prefer another Gigginstown runner in Last Instalment, who looked very good as a novice before missing the latter part of last season due to injury. Last Instalment is a strong traveller and impeccable jumper, very similar in style to Flemenstar, and I think he may well prove to be the best of the Gigginstown entries in the long term. The worry here though is that trianer Phillip Fenton has indicated that he is unlikely to run before the new year and you do just wonder whether this is already a race against time to get him to Cheltenham. Further down the list we have the likes of Grands Crus, Hunt Ball, The Giant Bolster and Kauto Stone but I truly believe we are getting into the realms of "not quite up to Gold Cup standard" here. Grands Crus, in particular, was well beaten off in the RSA and it looks like Cheltenham may not be his track. We will know more after the Paddy Power this Saturday. So what else is out there? The Betfair Chase will be a good guide to Imperial Commander and his chances - a reproduction of his imperious victory over Denman in 2010 would surely see him go close but he is now 11 and it seems a big ask against such up-and-coming talent. Shark Hanlon's Hidden Cyclone looks a very decent chaser in the making and it will be interesting to see how his season develops, whilst 2nd season chasers Cue Card, Al Ferof and For Non Stop could certainly develop into top class animals. The main races to watch between now and March will undoubtably be the Betfair Chase, John Durkan, King George, Lexus Chase, Denman Chase and possibly the Argento Chase and it promises to be an exciting 5 months. Some dreams will be squashed, others will rise up and live in hope, but at the end of the day the race will be won by the best staying chaser and will, as ever, be a true spectacle to behold. At this very early stage I am hopeful that Flemenstar and Last Instalment will both make the race. For me they are both superb jumpers of a fence and both travel extremely well in their races. I think it will be interesting to keep revisiting this thread over the coming months and as always all your views and thoughts are truly appreciated.
Great post, pretty sure long rin win it in 2011 though . Im bit yet convinced by sir des champs which will Be an opinion not shared by most! I dont really have a clue as yet to Be honest. The races you mention will give an idea
Quite right simmo, I've got both Long Run and Imperial Commander winning in 2010 Too much wine - corrected now
Oddy, great write up. You just have to like both Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs. Both have much to recommend them. Flemenstar looks the classier and maybe pacier of the two, but Sir Des Champs acts round Cheltenham and certainly has a turn of foot. Like you, I feel Bob's Worth and Silviniaco Conti look more like top Grade Two performers, and I don't fancy Al Ferof- watching his race against Sprinter Sacre, he just doesn't seem to have the scope a good chaser should have. For Non stop just couldn't cope with Sir Des Champs in The Jewson, and there's no reason to expect him to close the gap over a longer trip. Cue Card may be a different matter, though. He lost nothing in defeat against Sprinter Sacre and he may just progress when upped in trip. I have no particular view about Long Run- except wait and see what he does. For me, my forecast for the Gold Cup at this stage would be.. 1. Sir Des Champs 2. Flemenstar 3. Cue Card
Good read Oddy As you know from our brief exchange on another thread, I'm a big fan of Flemenstar (as converted by my paddy cousins!), and the way he travels and jumps smacks of a class NH horse, who could well win the Gold Cup in March, he's got to be on the shortlist. Sir Des Champs is another the Irish are raving about, and he looked to handle the course perfectly fine (although the fog on festival Thursday at the time of the 1st race was horrendous!) although I keep asking myself, did he beat a great deal? I know Champion Court is a smart animal, but is he GC class? Long Run has had his time, and will be lucky to win another Gold Cup in my opinion, he looks like the classic horse who bursts onto the scene, then doesn't train on. His jumping has not been completely ironed out, and his pace seems to been blunted. Bobs Worth is a horse that I didn't really have a lot of time for before I saw him on the day he won his RSA chase. He looked great in the ring, and to my eye, won the race very impressively, he definitely went up in my estimation then, and even if he struggled to win a race before the GC, it wouldn't put me off backing him, I think he's tailor made for the course. Silviniaco Conti is now at a bit of a cross roads for me, I think he's done everything asked of him so far, but his next 2 runs will tell us how good he actually is. I love the horse, and hope he can be as good as he has looked so far, theres nothing wrong with his jumping, that is for certain. I will be amazed if Grands Crus is good enough to win it, but who would have had Synchronised winning the thing this time last year? Would be great to see the forgotten horses, Imperial Commander and Weapons Amnesty (not sure if still injured?) return to something like their best
Won 1 of his last 8, last win Nov 2011 in a Grade 3, beaten by Last Instalment, Bobs Worth, Bog Warrior, Lucky William, Sizing Europe and Kauto Stone. Looks pretty exposed to me.
Oddly great write up. I enjoyed the read. Agree with your comments regarding Flemenstar. My worry with the horse is that he will be targeted at races in Ireland before coming over for the festival in March. Two points arise from this. Firstly will he take to Cheltenham? Secondly the ground will more than likely be faster than he had accounted in Ireland which could possibly be his undoing. Not for any moment saying he can't defy this and win but I got caught out last year with a similar Irish horse in Rubi Light who I thought was top, top class but fell short come the Thursday of Chelt week and Ryanair Chase a large factor being the quicker ground than he had raced on in Ireland. I could stand to be corrected and will be first to hold my hands up but I won't be backing him yet. At present I would go for a proven Chelt horse such as Sir Des Champs but a long time till March and as you say some big races to be run. Great write up from you and hope this adds to it.
As I said in another thread the Gold Cup is virtually always won by 'real' stayers however I will contradict this view by stating that I have already invested some cash on Cue Card at 50/1. How many of the Gigginstown runners will line up; could one run in the Ryanair?
One thing I will say about First Lieutenant Oddy is that he is primed fot Cheltenham and the good ground, so he will outrun his early season form. I dont think that is enough though. Really hope Last Instalment stays fit and likewise Weapons Amnesty, who is in training again.
Thanks for all the comments guys, I hope we will revisit this regularly between now and March as the picture develops
Really like Flemenstar, if he gets the trip then I cannot see him being beaten. Jumps and travels which is essential in the gold cup and has some pace to put the race to bed in the closing stages. Think The Giant Bolster is overpriced at 25/1. If he was trained by Nicholls or Henderson he would be half the price. A real shame Invictus is out for the season as I think he would have been a major factor in this races. Think the Irish have a really strong chance this year. Sir Des Champs and Flemenstar having obvious claims and backed up by First Lieutenant, Last Instalment and Weapons Amnesty. Not given up on my Hidden Cyclone bet just yet (Backed him for this years GC at 66). Only beaten a length and a quarter by Sir Des Champs, but has a lot to find with Flemenstar on a line through Folidubh.
Or you could say he's a Cheltenham specialist who had an interrupted prep last year who's beaten the subsequent Champion Hurdler and only lost to Bob's Worth, himself a confirmed Cheltenham specialist who won when his yard were absolutely flying in a race that was not run to suit First Lieutenant.
I really hope that Weapons Amnesty gets back on the track this season. 2 time festival winner including a fairly comprehensive thrashing of future GC winner Long Run in the RSA. T'interweb reports from his trainer predict a reappearance very soon. If he comes back in good form he'd be my idea of the winner. I really rate Flemenstar very highly but I'd love to see him campaigned over shorter and take on Sprinter Sacre. It doesn't appear likely but that match up would be the highlight of the season for me (apologies for going of topic Oddy).
You're not wrong there Oddy. I still doubt he's capable of winning a GC mind. Just think he's under rated.
To me at this stage the race is between 3 steeds Sir Des Champs and the Mr Henderson pair Long Run and Bob’s Worth. Over 26.5 furlongs at Cheltenham and on the likely ground they to me are some way ahead of the rest. My preference, if someone held a gun to my head, would be for Sir Des Champs as I was in total awe of his performance in Gloucestershire back in March. A truly vintage display in my opinion that marked him down as potentially out of the top drawer. Can I also by the way give full marks to Oddy for referring to the heat, in the thread title, as the ‘Cheltenham Gold Cup’. It totally infuriates me when people call the race ‘The Gold Cup’. It’s the ‘Cheltenham Gold Cup’ as ‘The Gold Cup’ is run at Ascot in mid-June.
Bobs Worth for me he has won at the last two festivals and both are good trials for future stayers. At this stage I would be more inclined to back him. Though, given his liking for Cheltenham, I also expect he might run a few stinkers (bit harsh) on flatter speed tracks beforehand, which will probabaly put me off him before hosing up at the festival. Much like ths year!
