Sunday at Navan sees the Grade 2 Fortria Chase, run over 2 miles, and the initial declarations are out today as follows: Big Zeb Blazing Tempo Flemenstar Foildubh Forpadydeplasterer Keelaghan Kylebeg Krystle Mr Cracker Realt Dubh Sizing Europe The Grade 1 winners Big Zeb, Flemenstar, Forpadydeplasterer, Realt Dubh and Sizing Europe will carry 11-12 and you'd expect the winner to come from that lot. This is a facinating clash between the older generation and last season's star novice Flemenstar, and it should be an absolute cracker. I am a massive fan of Flemenstar and it will be a good guide to his future prospects to see how he fares against Big Zeb and Sizing Europe. Ultimately this is just a season opener for Flemenstar and I would expect to see him up in trip next time out, but if he can take this convincingly they may well decide to stay at 2 miles with him, as it looks like Sizing Europe will be stepped back up in trip and Big Zeb may be beginning to feel his age. Whatever happens, this should be a very informative renewal and a great spectacle.
Indeed,a race to watch and not to bet on..though none of these will ever be as good as the horse the race is named after ! Fortria was the fourth best chaser Tom Dreaper ever trained.
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Was doubtful mysefl TMOG, think they're looking to step him up in trip rather than down, yeah? Big Zeb will still be a good test for Flemenstar
Interestin race, im a huge fan o Big Zeb & Flemenstar. Tha wun who cud surprise is Blazing Tempo. I cud neva understan why Mullins upped him ain trip when he looked ah decent 2m - 2m 2f horse. Sizing Europe if he lines up will be tha wun tah beat. Not wun faw a bet but a great race tah watch.
Yeah, Clonmel Oil Chase apparently for him, would have been nice to see him against Flemenstar though, Big Zeb looked to be on the downgrade towards the end of last season but he is 3 from 3 here first time out so should provide at least some sort of test for Flemenstar. Im sure he wont be wound up for it but if Sizing Europe and Realt Dubh drop out ill be surprised if Flemenstar is any bigger than 4/7, trip is no problem and he should only have to jump round unless Big Zeb rolls back the years. Murphy also has Voler La Vadette in the Lismullen Hurdle that she won last year, could be an interesting race if they all turn up.
Wouldn't be keen on taking a short price about Flemenstar. He is a massive beast and blew up last year on his first run and also needed it the season before. Peter Casey will be in no hurry with this fella regarding 100% fitness in a race that isn't a G1 but merely a stepping stone to future targets.
I'm told Flemenstar will do well to run to his optimum, as mentioned above he usually badly needs his first run, and is an imposing animal who takes a bit of getting fit. Realt Dubh and Big Zeb will be good yardsticks for him, that is for certain, both very consistent horses
I've noticed that Big Zeb has gone very well fresh at his last two, first up runs. If Flemenstar needs a run or two go find his straps, can the evergreen Zeb roll the young upstart?
Just the 5 go to post, odds courtesy of Paddy Power: 1. Big Zeb 11-12 (5/1) 2. Realt Dubh 11-12 (3/1) 3. Mr Cracker 11-10 (25/1) 4. Flemenstar 11-9 (8/11) 5. Foildubh 11-1 (8/1) I got it wrong with the weights in my original post - Flemenstar gets 3lbs allowance for not having won a chase before May 9th 2011. I hope we will see a bold showing from Flemenstar but at 1/4 odds the place Big Zeb at 5/1 rates a knocking e/w bet to nothing.
Realt Dubh for me - always rated him, and with Flemenstar likely to be below his best, and Big Zeb looking over the hill for me... Probably won't have a bet, but it looks a great race. Love to see Flemenstar thrash them all.
Yes and Yes. That was mightily impressive from Flemenstar, he never touched a twig yet again. He has such a wonderful jumping rhythm. John Durkan next and then most likely upto 3 miles (probably the Lexus?). By christ he's a proper horse - big and powerful yet swift and nimble.
An impressive looking horse and mover, Oddy- he reminds me of Pendil from the past. Flemensfirth produces good stayers but there's not too much on his dam's side, so the hill at Cheltenham may really test him. I'd prefer Sir Des Champs at this stage.
Fair play Oddy, you've been touting this one for a while, was a very impressive performance today. Only question is what would the season plan be for the horse ? The way this one progressed last year I would have expected them to have started at further with a view to stepping up towards 3m - he would have answered a few questions when slamming Rathlin at Fairyhouse on decent ground last season and that was over 2m 4f, perhaps they thought the ground and field size today would have helped slow the pace of the race allowing an easier re-appearance ? Didn't you suggest he would have a live Gold Cup chance this year ? Certainly one to follow, could be an exciting
His short-term programme looks pretty clear now Grizzly - John Durkan next up (Punchestown, 2m4f, early December) followed by the Lexus Chase (Leopardstown, 3 miles, end of December). If he takes both of those then I would say the Gold Cup is a must at Cheltenham. The question will be, whether they send him to England for a prep run, as there have been stories in the past about him not being the best traveller. If I had a Cheltenham Gold Cup contender on my hands I would want to test that out beforehand and would be looking to send him over for the Denman Chase at Newbury. Tam - Sir Des Champs looks top class and has clearly demonstrated he gets the Gold Cup trip. I backed him when he came from a mile back to win the Martin Pipe Conditional at the festival 2 years back but, for whatever reason, I just haven't taken to him as a chaser. Possibly because I think Knockfierna would've beaten him but for running out at the 2nd last, and I'm not entirely convinced that he is the superstar some people are billing him as. I could be wrong though - wouldn't be the first, or last, time
Although I have backed both Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs immediately after their 'target' races in April and March I still cannot forget that the Gold Cup, whatever the going, is a true stayer's race. As I have judged that Long Run's best days may have passed I am seriously looking at Bobs Worth who has a perfect Cheltenham record. I still believe that something will appear to challenge those at the top of the market. Just back from Auteuil; I wish some more of the French chasers, with their current trainers, would visit in March! By the way it was still only 4 euros to see three grade 1 races!
Oddy, good morning. I'm not convinced myself that Sir Des Champs is a "superstar" but I'm impressed by his turn of foot. I accept that novice chasing is one thing, and progressing to the top is another. For Non Stop certainly advertised the Cheltenham form, though, when he trounced some decent chasers at Aintree- whatever their fitness levels. You had to be impressed by Flemenstar yesterday, even though Big Zeb is on the wane. He looked fantastic and they were never going to trouble him, were they? All in all, there's quite a lot to look forward to- in the chasing ranks especially. The hurdling picture is far less clear, however.
