National Hunt racing from Carlisle, Ludlow and Thurles plus the sand rats from Southwell and Wolverhampton to tickle your fancy on Thursday. 4.15 Ludlow: Lovely Muck was last seen staying on in eyecatching fashion over 2 miles at Ffos Las on soft ground 11 days ago and this significant step up in trip shoulf be right up her street. She is by Alflora, whose progeny usually like a bit of juice, and her dam won 4 times at trips between 2m4f and 3m1f and she has had 2 runs to find her feet, as mentioned already staying on nicely over 2 miles at Ffos Las last time. She's around 12s on the tissue so an e/w dabble will be my bet. Best of luck to those punting
Good luck with that one Oddy...haven't had a look yet. Just watching some absolute rubbish football in the CL tonight. Conclusion,with stats to back,white men can't jump,WASP's can't play football...discuss
Feeling it too in Bilbao Oddy...always a nighhtmare when your team struggles. Even thought I tipped Valencia on Saturday I was gutted to see us concede 2 goals in min 88 and 92 to lose 3-2 after a silly,but justified,sending off for kicking an opponent in the back of the leg. How far have we fallen...brushed aside Schalke last year who just gave the Gunners a right footy lesson at The Emirates.
George...the absence RVP is the difference...simple as. To sell him to the Asians was ridiculous...he's carrying them currently...the sun always shines on Old Toilet,well it must do...always lots of people squinting...
2.00 Southwell Mubtadi 15/2 NAP I think there are two stand out horses in the field in the shape of the unexposed 3 year old Chronic Flame and my main selection in Ismail Mohammed's 4 year old and I'm going to have a good go on the RFC as I feel that they could easily be the first two home but I just feel Mubtadi could be the stronger of the pair. Firstly to current favourite Chronic Flame, he showed some good form in maidens most notably when 4th behind an easy winner in the shape of 100 rated Ed De Gas with the 2nd and 3rd now rated 84 and 69 which make his handicap mark of 57 look very manageable. Although beaten in his two handicaps to date, the switch to fibresand for Marcus Tregonning's gelding could prove the oracle with Sire Dubai Destination's progeny having a 17% strike rate at the track since 2009 and it looks very significant that Chronic Flame will only be the in form trainer's 3rd runner ever at the track. He's unexposed, looks on a good mark and is definitely open to some considerable improvement. Mubtadi, on the other hand, is a horse that looks very well handicapped on old form off a mark of 65 and I'm taking proven experience and the potential to bounce back to form over potential progression in this race. Formerly witih David Simock, Mubtadi showed some very decent form as a 3 year when a head 2nd off a mark of 81 at Doncaster in a strong Class 2 handicap over a mile as well as a staying on 3.25L beaten 4th over 7f at Goodwood behind the subsequently very progressive pair of Tariq Too and Valencha off a mark of 82 on what was his last start for Simcock. Mubtadi made his debut for current connections in May when a rather unlucky in running 4L beaten 7th at Newbury off a mark of 81 and that effort showed that he still maintained his ability. Its been pretty much downhill in his 5 starts for the yard since then (although he did shape pretty nicely 2 starts back when lit up by a visor at Yarmouth) but as a result he has become a very well handicapped horse. I'm not one to discount a regressive profile too lightly but I definitely can see more than just a well handicapped horse as my reasoning. Firstly, trainer Ismail Mohammed has really found his feet recently after a frustrating start to his career in England and the former UAE 1,000 Guineas and Oaks winning trainer has sent out 5 winners from his last 13 runners including his last two who were both successful so he is in flying form having taking up pitch at Newmarket. On top of this, I think the switch to the fibresand could prove the oracle for Mubtadi. Although not guaranteed to act on the surface, this colt's Sire Dr. Fong has a 17.2% strike rate at the track with his progeny so that is a big pointer that he could relish this surface as he is dropped back into a 0-65 handicap for the first time in his career. Liam Jones takes the ride and is a very interesting booking being 1-1 for the stable and this represents his only action of the day and I think its a strong signal of intent. With a multitude of positives in his favour, I think Mubtadi looks primed to bounce back to form in a big way and I am pretty confident he can take this very average looking event (hopefully with Chronic Flame trailing him home in 2nd!)
DRUM VALLEY 2.10 Ludlow. Was expected to be winning bumpers last year so hopefully will go very close over hurdles.
Don't you just love this time of year? Season of mists and mellow fruitlfulness, and the market mostly got it right at Fontwell and Wincanton yesterday. I'm sure to have a few bets today, haven't looked yet though. Have to dust off the tweeds first.
Morning, all. Very strange days racing today as we have no turf flat action. In fact it looks disappointing overall and so am therefore waving the old 'no bet' banner. Do not miss though, people, my old fave, the legendary TATANIANO if he returns to action after 12 months off, across the Welsh border at Chepstow on Saturday afternoon in their rich £25k handicap. Injuries have been cruel to him since he won at Aintree on Grand National day 2010 but he's still only an 8YO and I remain convinced that he will return to the 'top table'. I really believe that Sprinter Sacre apart, there is no better chaser out there and if he returns to the same sort of form that saw the old boy win that Grade 2 at Cheltenham and his Grade 1 at Aintree then I think Tataniano will have a big say in many major races over the next few seasons. Meanwhile, as ever, good luck if you wager today.
Been looking through the future entries as today’s racing so doesn’t appeal and I see that Nick Williams has entered Swincombe Flame in a novice chase at Taunton next Tuesday. It will be fascinating to see how she gets on over the big ‘uns this term following a highly promising hurdling career. Furthermore he’s not restricting her to a ‘Mares Only’ contest so is evidently of the opinion that the old girl can hold her own amongst the fellas.
Off to Carlisle today (well my money is. I'll be watching on RUK). 3.25 Bit Of A Jig. Some early money has come for Donald McCain's rules debutant who has finished 2nd in 2 Irish P-t-Ps. In the absence of the defrocked Howard Johnson, the McCain yard is the one to follow here nowadays. 3.55 The Magic Bishop Jonjo's runner Mister Hyde was this mornings paper fav, but he's drifted out, and rightly so imo, as top weight could undo his slender chances returned to fences. I'm hoping Malcolm Jefferson's charge can build on his recent win here, and confirm form with Power Pack Jack on 7lb worse terms. Lucinda Russell's Vamizi now looks like going off favourite, and the excellent stable form, plus his record here, mean he's feared most.
Good to soft, soft in places Sir Barney - will hardly play to Tataniano's strengths. I would've thought Nicholls might want to wait for some better ground - sure to be some this side of St Stephen's Day
Hello lads and happy St Crispins day. Good to see Tataniano (awful name) back but I have to disagree with SBC and Oddy. He never even waited on the top table never mind sat at it,never mind dining at it! He's flattered by a mark of 160 and his G1 was a shocking event full of "over the top" beasts. Useful top level h'capper who may even pick up something like the G2 Celebration 'Chase when the real top notchers have been turned out to grass. Nothing for me today as yet....I'm off to the Morning Star for lunch and an afternoon of supping!!.. Jetson in the 2.45 at Thurles appeals greatly but the price doesn't in the least. GL all.
Vardas Supreme Carlisle 2.55. This went into the notebook last time out. Travelled well, eased clear and seemingly full of running only to make a complete horlicks of the final bend, hanging badly. To it's credit it then stayed on we'll on the run in but couldn't make up the extra furlong it ran round the bend! 6/1 seems reasonable. Also at the same meeting I reckon the McCain/Maguire combo may be worth following too. Prices not very attractive but have stuck them all in win multiples. Good luck to all wagering this afternoon.
