National Hunt Preview 2012-13. Hurdlers | Horse Racing

National Hunt Preview 2012-13. Hurdlers.

Following on from my review of the chasers, I shall limit a review of the hurdlers to ‘two milers’ and ‘stayers’.
Should any member wish to highlight ‘novice prospects’ from either National Hunt Flat Races/ Bumpers- or the Flat- then please do so.

Two Mile Hurdlers.

Few people would have opposed Hurricane Fly prior to last season’s Champion Hurdle. He seemed to have put to rest once and for all the notion that he needed flat tracks to show his best- by winning the 2011 renewal.
However, in a faster run race than when he defeated Peddler’s Cross, Hurricane Fly never travelled easily and merely kept on under pressure.
The winner, Rock On Ruby, had done nothing wrong prior to Cheltenham, and was evidently suited to a fast-run two miles.
Nonetheless, the proximity of the excellent Overturn raised some doubts on the quality of the contest, as many pundits would not have expected him to manage second in a Champion Hurdle.
Furthermore, the result underlines how ‘up-and-down’ the top hurdle races have been in recent years; it also opens up the prospects for the 2013 running.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but quite possibly Nicky Henderson made a tactical error in targeting Oscar Whisky to take on Big Bucks in the World Hurdle- where he patently didn’t get home.
Perhaps he saw no mileage in taking on Hurricane Fly again but, on the bare evidence of the result- and his subsequent defeat of Rock On Ruby at Aintree- Oscar Whisky could have had a very big say in the Champion Hurdle.
Of last season’s ‘second year’ hurdlers, both Zarkandar and Grandouet could both come into the reckoning.
The former had a setback and didn’t reappear until his win in the Tote Gold Trophy and, although he seemed outpaced in the Champion Hurdle, he made up an enormous amount of ground on the run-in to finish fifth. He then fell at Aintree when close up behind Oscar Whisky.
The latter never ran after defeating Overturn quite easily in December, and he did nothing wrong prior to that- despite falling against Celestial Halo at Wincanton, when having the race at his mercy.
Two ‘second season hurdlers’ who will be pitched at the top level are Cinders And Ashes and Simonsig.
The former won his last four races, culminating in his Supreme Novices triumph. On a line through Darlan, you could argue there’s little between him and Zarkandar.
As for Simonsig, he seems to have ‘chaser’ written all over him and looks to have a big future. If he is campaigned towards the Champion Hurdle, he could give them all something to think about.
Others like Thousand Stars, Overturn, and Binocular will make matters interesting, but these three seem fully exposed.

Staying Hurdlers.

Despite Voler La Vedette’s tremendous effort last time round- and unless the outstanding mare, Quevega, has a tilt at the World Hurdle- it is hard to look past Big Bucks recording his fifth consecutive World Hurdle.
Unbeaten in nearly four years, this outstanding, quirky character is a joy to behold. The challengers keep trying to catch him napping, but he just dosses and pulls out enough to win. A legend in staying hurdlers, and I can’t seriously preview any opponent who can realistically be fancied to beat him. Maybe he’ll eventually beat himself and cry “ Enough is enough.”

Summary.

Based on last year’s race, I can see Rock On Ruby running well again at Cheltenham.
It seems Nicky Henderson holds a very strong hand with Simonsig, Grandouet, and Oscar Whisky. I think Grandouet may be a big player this year, but I shouldn’t discount Oscar Whisky- especially if the winner is to come from ‘the old brigade.’
I’m not sure Cinders And Ashes Supreme Novices form is anything special, and Zarkandar may need soft ground to mount a challenge. Simonsig could be anything.
I honestly don’t know what to make of Hurricane Fly at Cheltenham. Perhaps other members have an opinion on him.
It’s certainly a very open Champion Hurdle in prospect, and the in-season trials will be most interesting.
For the staying hurdlers, I can’t think of anything new to add.

 

Nice one Tamerlo, great to see the jumps is on the way.

For novicies I'd go with DODGING BULLETTS, the Paul Nicholls trained youngster ran a blinder in the Triumph Hurdle just not getting up the hill, he then ran flat at Aintree which to be honest some of the juve's do. As he didn't win a race he'll be looking at the Supreme already, another year of growing and the usual fast run race should see him go well and is one to watch this season.

I'm pretty sure I'd be sending SIMONSIG over fences if I was the owner, hope so because I've backed him for the Arkle already.
I agree that OSCAR WHISKY could be very interesting in the Champion Hurdle if he steps back to 2m, if I was the owner this is what I'd be doing with him. ROCK ON RUBY will be there abouts again as he clearly loves a fast paced 2m with the uphill finish so beware.
I do like ZARKANDER but I'm not convinced he's quite quick enough but an injury free season will help him.

I do really like both CINDERS AND ASHES and GRANDOUET, Cinders won the Supreme quite cosily really and he fluffed the last and McCain really fancies him. Form has been franked with Darlan romping in at Aintree, he's one to improve and watch carefully.
GRANDOUET is a fast paced horse, possibly the quickest here, his jumping is improving and he put a few doubters to bed when winning the International Hurdle at Cheltz last December quite easily. He'll have grown again from last season and the injury could be a blessing and he could be one to follow this season, I plan on backing him until he loses.
HURRICANE FLY is an enigma, personally I think he was too foward when he won the Irish Champion Hurdle (when very impressive) and was a bit flat at Cheltz. He is one not to forget and if back to form can carry some of these around so dismiss him at your peril.

Not bothering with staying hurdles, BIG BUCKS with VOLER LA VEDETTE the best of the rest.

 

He fell twice at the end of the season but there were not many more exciting first season hurdlers than Alan Kings Balder Succes who looked a real NH type and Paul Nicholls suggested the Triumph would not be his time but the Supreme circuit would suit him more.

Has to bounce back though.

 

There really is no better trainer of a hurdler than Mr Henderson. I think only a lunatic would disagree with that and I would expect him to regain the old Champion Hurdle crown this term. Grandouet would be my idea of the winner as this horse looked so exciting and the sky the limit prior to his untimely injury which ruled him out of a Champion Hurdle bid. I think the front 2 in the market (Hurricane fly and Rock on Ruby the winners in ’11 and ’12 respectively) look very vulnerable to a younger, improving type and would rate Cinders And Ashes as the very big danger. I thought his novice campaign hinted at great things to come and think last terms ‘Supreme Novices’ was a very good race – for instance prior to it old boy Alan King said in a normal year he felt Montabazon would win the race but in this running felt a place was the best he could achieve. I would love to see my old fave, Binocular, return to the ‘top table’ and no one would shout louder than me if he did. I do have my doubt though and 12/1 re his chances of regaining his crown do look a bit mean, at this stage. It wil be fascinating to see how Darlan gets on in 'open' company though. He looked a real tougher streetfighter last term and the fact that he went so close in the 'Supreme Novices' after suffering a terrible fall a month earlier shows how tough he really is. What he lacks in class he certainly makes up for in gameness and this attribute could scare off some with less aptitude than he.

The Stayers crown once again looks to be Big Bucks’ for the taking especially if his biggest rival (Quevega) once again opts out and instead runs in a Grade 2! Diluting the Festival with races like this (Mares Hurdle) really is to the detriment of the whole meeting as without it connections would have had to run her in real races like either the ‘Champion’ or ‘World Hurdle’. Maybe one of last seasons novices will excel over 3+ miles built it will take a top, top one to get past Mr Nicholls star.

 

I think Nicholls has a couple of handicap aces up his sleeve - Hinterland and Pearl Swan are surely under-rated on their current hurdles rating and I could see a big handicap win for either/both this season.

 

I don't blame connections of Quevega at all, they're making history with her, besides there is a world of difference between 2m and 3m as Oscar Whisky proved at the 2 pole last season !

I agree with those who say that Cinders & Ashes is not as respected as he should be, he clouted the last in his Supreme and still went away from his field, the worry of course will be comparisons with Peddlers Cross but I still expect to see him improve this season and maybe Cinders' best shot at a Champion won't come until 2014.
At this stage I'd be a bigger fan of backing Darlan or Granduet.

My bold prediction for this season is that Big Bucks will finally see his colours lowered perhaps by Rock on Ruby who I think could be aimed at the Stayers.
Maybe Darlan will also be aimed at further, if he is he could go to the very top....

 

Can't see Nicholls sending Rock On Ruby to face his stablemate star Grizz, though it would be a good race to watch. The Pipe team will no doubt have a crack at him!

I'm really interested to see how the Supreme shapes up. I await word on a lost name in the shape of Samain.

 

Nicholls will not be training Rock On Ruby anymore never did really just in his name.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/hors...-to-go-solo-with-rock-on-ruby-and-co/1078148/

 

RV anyone said oot about Camelot since Saturday btw? Any indication of an Arc run?

 

Not heard anything Toppy. A few things on twitter saying Joseph O'Brien says the Arc is a strong possibility apart from that nothing.

 

Cheers RV.

Tempted to take some large odds on him. Does seem to have settled a touch on the exchanges.

 

One form the David Pipe yard I will be watching out for is GEVREY CHAMBERTIN who is related to stable star Grands Crus. Gevery Chambertin won a bumper over 2 miles at Ffos Las by 30L on his debut which granted was not the strongest race but it showed he has ability. He then contested a stronger bumper at Newbury over 2m and did well to finish a close fourth. A step up in trip over hurdles was the making of Grands Crus and the step up in trip for Gevery Chambertin should bring out lots of improvement.

 

http://tommarch.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/simonsig-sized-shake-up.html - I posted this on my blog just over a month ago. Given subsequent market movements and comments it is looking increasingly like this is the route he will take. He is now beginning to challenge Hurricane Fly for favouritism in the Champion Hurdle and drifting for the Arkle. I was really looking forward to him going chasing but think he adds a great deal of much needed interest to the 2m hurdling division. Hurricane Fly looks a very weak favourite to me with any amount of question marks hanging over much of the rest.

On a less positive note, what a shame about Spirit Son. Sorry if this has been posted elsewhere but this article on his illness and recovery is well worth reading: http://images.racingpost.com/pdfs/Spirit_Son.PDF. Such a shame that he will almost certainly never get the opportunity to show what he was capable of on the racecourse.

 

Great article Zen very intresting indeed

 

Thats a seriously high rated flat horse to be joining.

If he can hurdle it will be very interesting!

 

Think Cinders and Ashes is the one to watch this season, won the Supreme a shade easy, JM said he hit the front and idled if I remember correctly. I don't know what to make of the Fly if I'm honest. Last year I finally bought into the Irish Hype and backed him quite large when I was there on the Tuesday (only with a slice of the C&A return though which perhaps explains the size of the bet) and now I'm wondering whether all this time it has been Irish hype. He still hasn't beaten all that much if we're honest. It's a big year for him. And don't rule out Rock on Ruby either who clearly loves Cheltenham and the hill and, let's face it, always looked the winner from about 3 out. He hasn't yet had a chance to back up his victory which is why doubts remain but perhaps he's a progressive type and is now the best 2m hurdler in the business.