FFS your over complicating it, 4 groups will have an English team 8 groups in total so its 50/50.
If the first team drawn is Bayern, they are more likely to get Man City (20% rather than 12.5%) - we are subsequently more likely to be drawn in that group as Dortmund in pot four cannot be drawn in that group.
We have a 3/8 chance of getting a seed 1 English team but roughly a 1/7 chance of getting Man City (if they're drawn in Bayern's group) and a much higher chance if they're drawn in a Spanish team's group.
We also have a 2/7 chance of being in a Spanish seed 1 team's group as Malaga cannot be drawn against them.
Also, Porto being our seed 1 team means Man City's odds of being in that group are reduced as Braga can't be in it.
Trust me - it's greater than 50%.
I might not have expressed it properly but it's higher than 50%
No it isn't, its 50/50 trust me I went to Catholic School.


Should we win the league this year we will have 3 rounds to navigate to reach the promised land. I am looking at coefficient points.
4 nice big ones for reaching the CL.
i think it is half points in the qualifying rounds, so we have already got 8....I think.It might be over the 2 legs so only 6....even so, that is some haul already.
Getting through the group is 4 more........ambitious.
2 for a win, 1 for a draw.
We need the points. Badly.
We could still end up in anyone of 8 groups 4 of which will have en English team. Its like explaining things to a dug>

Wouldn't it be much better if the draw was a free for all... no seedings!
Wouldn't it be much better if the draw was a free for all... no seedings!

Crazily results in the Europa League earn you the exact same points as the equivalent match would in the Champions League. So to that end, as long as we got one of the poorer sides in pot 3 (not that any of them are actually ****e), we'd have a better shot at getting into the Europa League knockouts, which would surely mean a better chance at more points?
They do, but there is a 4 point bonus for getting through the CL group.
There is then a balancing act as to whether we thing we could get more than 4 points from dropping into the Europa.
They have a 2 point bonus at the semi final....I think.
Either way, it would be great to get through and it would be great to get a parachute into the Europa.
It would not be great to go out.
Is there a bonus for winning the thing?
The biggest problem is getting the country's co-ef up, all the points we get are divided by the number of teams in Europe which is 5 os if we get 10 the scottish co-ef gets only 2.

Is it 4.45 or 5.45?
4.45 but there'll be quite a bit of pissing about (hopefully with big dolly birds picking the balls out, giving them a good rinse around there mouth and then spitting them into the desired ballrests whilst looking up at the camera with their big, boaby-hungry eyes).
