My thoughts and bets for day 1 of the goodwood festival 2.00 bet365.com Stakes (Handicap) SPANISH DUKE can provide a much need big race success for the John Dunlop team; he competes here off a mark of 96, just 1lb more than on his last success. His last two runs have been over 1m 4f, but he seems better suited to the 1m 2f trip he tackles here. A quirky individual, he can often race too keenly which has hampered his chances in previous races. If things go to plan and he settles better he is more than capable of improving his 13th place in this race last year, especially as he was rated 7lb higher that day and was hampered 3 furlongs from home. Landaman could prove the chief danger for the masterful Goodwood trainer Mark Johnston, having won his last two starts, both at Beverley, in convincing fashion. Although he is 9lb higher in the weights today, Darren Egan takes off a valuable 5lb. The same rider/trainer combination teamed up to good effect at the weekend with Scatter Dice, so the same tactic could prove very shrewd once more. Sir Henry Cecil’s Specific Gravity could also be of interest after being gelded. It appeals to me that a trainer such as Sir Henry has kept faith with this son of Dansili, despite a few disappointing efforts in more competitive races. Arguably his best form came when he was 4th in a Group 3 at Ascot behind Pisco Sour. It would be a little bit of a gamble to back this horse but he is certainly one of the more intriguing runners on the card. The final horse to make the shortlist is Godolphin’s apparent second string runner, Start Right, who has previously won a 19-runner handicap at Goodwood. He ran consistently over the winter in Dubai and was given a nice introduction to the season at Newmarket to put him right for this, so as long as the winter campaign hasn’t taken too much out of him a big run could be on the cards. 2.35 bet365 Gordon Stakes (Group 3) The Gordon Stakes is a race widely contested by promising 3yo staying types who have aspirations to capture the final Classic of the season. Conduit was the last horse to win at Goodwood before going on to win at Doncaster, and St Leger entrants Michelangelo, Noble Mission, Encke and Minimise Risk will all be looking to emulate this feat. It is becoming a regular theme this season, but once again it seems that John Gosden holds all the aces in this contest, courtesy of MICHELANGELO, the clear third favourite for the St Leger at 10/1. William Buick will once again be on board this son of Galileo (who cost connections 550,000 guineas); victory is a requisite should they have serious hopes of going on to bigger and better things. He is definitely my pick for the race after impressing in each of his three runs to date. Thrown in at the deep end on his debut when pitted against today’s rival Noble Mission and Godolphin’s Mariner’s Cross, both of whom had racecourse experience on their side, he put in a more than creditable performance to finish just ¾ of a length third behind the pair. That day he struck me as an ideal St Leger candidate; a step up in trip is likely to suit. Following the aforementioned third place, he scrambled home in a 4-runner Listed race over 1m 3f. He then improved again last time out to take a valuable race at Newmarket in cosy fashion, but he now races over 1m 4f for the first time, a trip I believe will bring out vast improvement. He is almost certain to start favourite in a race which has been kind to market leaders, with five of the last six renewals going to the jolly; this strengthens my confidence in the selection and he looks the one to beat. The likely challengers look to be Encke, Noble Mission and Girolamo, with the latter my second preference. He finished third in the German Derby last time out, beaten only ½ a length, which is arguably the best form on offer here. Trained by handler of the Arc and King George heroine Danedream, Starke has shown himself adept at challenging for top prizes across Europe. Officially rated the best horse in the race, Girolamo has to be feared if the travelling doesn’t affect this promising young colt; he is more than capable of making his presence felt in this contest. 3.10 bet365 Lennox Stakes (Group 2) Richard Hannon and Sir Henry Cecil have both saddled the winner of this race in the last two years with Strong Suit (2011) and Lord Shanakill (2010) respectively; this year they both have strong chances in what in all fairness looks a weak renewal of the race. Hannon is represented by Libranno, who was beaten in this race 12 months ago; Cecil runs his tough mare, Chachamaidee, who is currently a strong 7/4 favourite. The market leaders, however, have a poor recent record in this contest, winning only two of the last ten. Sir Henry’s charge probably edges ahead as the form pick in the race, but given her fairly poor record in terms of wins (5-17) I am willing to look elsewhere. This leads me to William Haggas’ Firebeam, a horse who has yet to fulfil his true potential. The pick of his form comes from his run three starts back in a Listed race at Haydock, in which he was beaten by Red Jazz, who was second in this race last year. A lot of his racing has come with cut in the ground, but he did dot up in a York handicap on good ground, so I am intrigued to see how he goes, with Ryan Moore booked, on better ground. Bryan Smart isn’t renowned for training top class horses, but given his resources he is a very useful trainer, proving this when Tangerine Tress won the Group 1 Prix De L’Abbaye last season. He runs the Irish 2000 Guineas runner-up FOXTROT ROMEO, who will receive weight from the entire field as the only 3yo in the line-up, an age group which has dominated in winning 4 of the last 5 renewals. Although he hasn’t won since his debut he has shown solid form. In the St James’ Palace he tired late on over a mile, finishing 4th behind the impressive Most Improved, and as previously mentioned he was the runner-up to Power in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Twice he has tired late on over a mile suggesting he is well worth a crack at this 7f trip, something I believe will see him in a better light, making him very difficult to beat. (Cont.....)
.......(Cont) 3.45 bet365 Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) The Molecomb Stakes is a 5f sprint for 2 year olds which has been won by some smart types such as Monsieur Chevalier, Zebedee and Requinto in recent times. Only the last of the trio wasn’t trained by Richard Hannon, who is represented this year by Lyric Ace and Dominate. Although the former appears to be the stable’s first string on jockey bookings, I slightly prefer the horse Ryan Moore rides. This son of Assertive dotted up on soft ground last time out at Sandown in fine style. I don’t think the good ground they are likely to race on this week will be a problem, giving him a strong each-way shout. Jadanna also makes the shortlist having shown solid from in defeat at both Ascot, where she finished fifth despite racing on the unfavoured part of the course, and then at Newmarket, where she finished third behind Sendmylovetorose in the Cherry Hinton. That was over 6f, which did seem to stretch her, so the drop back to 5f is a definite plus. This, combined with her capabilities on faster ground, should put her right there at the finish. They may all, however, be chasing home Roger Varian’s MORAWIJ, who finished fourth behind Reckless Abandon in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. That particular rival has franked the form when winning a Group 2 in France, in which she beat Richard Hannon’s well regarded Sir Prancelot. Varian’s Exceed and Excel colt then scored in convincing fashion in a Sandown Listed race on good ground, suggesting he is definitely on the up; with more progress to come, Morawij could hold all the aces here. 4.15 Casino at bet365 EBF Maiden Stakes This is a really tough open maiden with not a great deal of form to go on; therefore I am sticking with those who have shown something on the racecourse. John Gosden’s season just keeps on getting better so it would be foolish to pass over any of his runners lightly, with BLESSINGTON looking to hold strong claims in this particular contest. He was sixth on his debut at Windsor but that run was far better than the form suggests; he started the race slowly before being hampered severely. Things just didn’t go to plan that day, so given a clear run, as well as breaking on terms, he should be there or thereabouts. Richard Fahey’s Garswood also appears to hold every chance on the back of a solid third in a competitive York maiden. This son of Dutch Art holds a Gimcrack entry, suggesting the horse is held in some regard. One to consider at a slightly bigger price is Prince Regal, who ran disappointingly last time out after a promising debut. I am trusting the drop to 5f last time out wasn’t ideal, so when stepping back up to 6f and encountering real good ground for the first time, he could well outrun his odds. 4.50 Poker at bet365 Stakes (Handicap) Plenty of this field seem fairly exposed with the handicapper appearing to hold the upper hand, however this cannot be said about the unexposed JACOB CATS for the Hannon and Hughes team. He is the only 3 year old in the race, which for me is a positive, especially given three of the last six renewals of this race has been won by this particular age group. He has now won three of his six career starts, including his last two races, so he could not be arriving here in better form. Although carrying a 6lb penalty for his latest success at Sandown six days ago, the manner in which he won was very impressive, suggesting that a prize of this nature is well within his reach. Snow Bay could well be capable of exploiting a mark of 85 if repeating the form shown at Ripon three starts ago. His last two starts can be discounted due to soft ground at York and the slow surface at Southwell. Both of these runs were also over 7f and the return to 1m on good ground should present perfect conditions. Another runner which could well make the frame is Scott Dixon’s Askaud, who finished a credible runner-up last time out at York off this mark. She is a previous course winner off a 2lb lower mark, so cannot be discounted, especially if the blinkers do the trick once more. War Singer occupies the fourth position on my shortlist despite the 1m trip seemingly being a negative. Eddie Ahern rides the horse once again, having finished third over 1m 2f last time on soft ground, tiring in the final furlong. They can often go a frantic pace in these types of races, which may just bring the stamina of this horse in to play and he could well be staying on late to challenge. 5.25 Mobile at bet365 Stakes (Handicap) A 26 runner 5f Handicap to finish the day does not make things easy, therefore it may be worth approaching this race with a fair degree of caution. I will however try to pick out a few of the likely contenders. Falasteen remains 3lb below his last winning mark and is likely to be at home on the forecast ground conditions. The booking of Richard Hughes is an eye-catching one; this, as well as the previous solid performances in big field handicaps, could see him make the shake-up. Perfect Blossom’s recent form has been far from inspiring; she did however win at Goodwood 2 years ago in identical conditions, off the same handicap rating of 84, and therefore everything could well pan out perfectly. Kingsgate Choice is another to consider as he will be racing back on a sounder surface. The soft ground at Newmarket was far from ideal last time out, and having won three times on good to firm ground he might be worth taking a chance on; Tom Queally is booked to ride him for the first time. The horse I am most confident about however, is R WOODY, who has won two from two here at Goodwood. A respectable reappearance on unsuitable soft ground at Newmarket behind Steps last time out should have put the horse spot on for this. His second course win was also off a mark of 89, 4lb lower than his current rating, making him dangerously well handicapped if rediscovering his best form.
Galway 4 Saint Gervais 5/2 4.30 Voleuse De Coeurs 5/1 5.35 Rock Critic 6/1 6.10 Big Break evens 6.40 Moonbi Creek 4/1 7.10 Storm Lightning 2/1 Worcester 6.20 Danimix 6/1 8.20 Can't split Floral Patches 6/1 and Midnight Whisper 4/1 so will back both to win and the reverse forecast. Perth 7pm Tough Talkin Man confident 4/1 Perth Sun Tzu Confident 6/4 Double
if this is the daily thread i should post here what i posted on Monday's thread. Still awaiting a price but this is one i'm tracking in the long run.
2.35 Goodwood- I still think the hugely promising Michaelangelo will be better on some softish ground and at the price is worth taking on. Noble Mission had a difficult trip when beating Michaelangelo earlier this season although the former will be rapidly improving since its debut that day. However the trip suits both and Noble Mission is very game, hugely unlucky at Ascot last time when getting bumped and looked the winner a furlong out. 7/2 looks value for him. That said though, ENCKE 9/1 (NB) is being touted as Godolphins St Leger candidate and his reappearance at Sandown, whilst not glamorous, was very, very likeable and that was over 10f where he made all. The step up in trip is absolutely nailed on to suit and crucially the front running tactics will come in very handy here at Goodwood. Michaelangelo was almost undone by a front running ride on Expense Claim at this venue earlier in the season and Michael Barzalona has a chance to steal this race if the horse improves for reappearance, which I think it might. 3.10 Goodwood: CHACHAMAIDEE 7/4 (NAP) - Really has proved herself to be a classy filly and in this field I thought 7/4 looked really good value. She has mixed it with them all and has got the turn of foot along with the crusing speed to be able to win n this smallish field come what may. Has won over course and distance and that has to be a plus at Goodwood, which is a tough undulating track and must be factored in. Looks excellent value. 3.45 Goodwood: DOMINATE 10/1 e.w- Was the apparant Hannon 2nd string on debut before running an absolute corker behind the smart KING DRAGON of Brian Meehans. Should have come on for that since when winning at Sandown and the experience stands him in good stead from the stiff Sandown finish when translating that willing attitude to Goodwood. Hughes might have ignored him wrongly here and Ryan Moore can profit. Look out for SPANISH DUKE 20/1 in the opening handicap at 2:00 because the horse was denied a clear run time and again this time last year at this track and if it gets a passage it won't be far away. Ground fine and not too quick, which helps this fella.
Darenjan is intriguing at Galway Festival in the 5.00 2m handicap having shaped promisingly on reappearance. Is lightly raced and ought to be cherry ripe here.
Toppy, had heard Dominate was very useful before debut and I think she's a big future ahead of her as well. 5.25 Goodwood R Woody 16/1 Really like the look of Robert Cowell's 5 year old gelding who I think should be spot on for his recent reappearance run and who I think has an excellent shot of landing this competitive 26 runner affair. Formerly with Linda Jewell and more recently Dean Ivory, I think R Woody is a well handicapped horse who is ready to strike at a track where he holds a 2-2 record. After making up into a decent animal with Jewell where he landed a shock to win a maiden impressively as a 100/1 shot, R Woody joined former trainer Dean Ivory back in June 2010 and he made up into a very nice sprinter winning 3 times and also running some excellent races in defeat and at the beginning of last year he started off at his peak rating of 93. His last victory came at Goodwood over 6f as a 3 year old back in October 2010 off a mark of 89 and as he races tomorrow off a mark of 85 I think he is more than capable of winning off his current mark. When analysing R Woody's last win, it came in a Class 3 handicap nearly 2 years ago at the track off a mark of 89. That day R Woody sat just off the pace before he kicked on inside the final furlong to win by 0.75L but he was always holding all challengers. The form of that race looks fine with the 2nd finishing a short head 2nd off the same mark on his only subsequent start. His final start as a 3 year old was a credible effort in a Listed race before he took a 6 month break. R Woody clearly needed his reappearance run and put in a much improved performance on his 2nd start as a 4 year old when finishing a 2L beaten 3rd off a mark of 92 at Windsor. After being settled in the midfield, R Woody came with a run down the outside but he had to settle for a place behind two in form rivals. The form of that race is exceptionally strong and its a bit surprising that R Woody didn't kick on from that effort. In the 4 subsequent starts of the 2nd Medicean Man, he won two, finished a 0.25L beaten 2nd and ran an excellent 3rd in a Listed contest. Moreover, R Woody finished in front of the very talented Addictive Dream and Lui Rei who have turned into extremely good sprinters. After a couple of mediocre efforts in good races, R Woody put in an improved performance over 5f at Leicester last September off a mark of 90. Awkwardly away from the gate, R Woody was always behind and was detached towards the rear for most of the race before he ran on late in the day to finish a 2.75L beaten 5th. I'm certain that if he broke on terms then he would have gone very close to winning that day. The form of that race is very consistent if not brilliant and considering he missed the break it was a very promising effort. His final 2 starts as a 4 year old and indeed for Ivory weren't the best but he certainly showed a more that satisfactory reappearance 10 days ago at Newmarket. He travelled well for a long way over the 5f trip at soft ground before getting tired on the back of a 9 month break and he should certainly come on an awful lot for his reappearance. Given that he is 4lb below his last winning mark and he also put in some very good efforts off marks in the 90s last year I definitely don't think a mark of 85 is beyond him. I think its very interesting that he returns to Goodwood after his seasonal debut and I think that Cowell may have had this on the agenda for quite some time. In terms of tomorrow's race, although he is tactically versatile and has won sitting both close to the pace and coming from the rear I really hope instructions will be for him to be prominent and try and utilise his extra stamina late on as he has made his name over 6f, although I think he definitely has the speed for the minimum trip. I'm quite happy with the draw in stall 20 and hopefully its the side to be on as from memory the near side is the place to be. Although Cowell is worryingly 0-20 this month, his horses are running well enough without winning at present so its not a grave concern. A more encouraging note is that Cowell is 2-10 at the track and he obviously is selective with his ammunition at the venue. I'm very happy with the booking of Jim Crowley who has a 17% when riding for the trainer and I think Crowley has really flourished this year and is riding at the top of his game. Although its going to be difficult to navigate such a large and competitive field, I feel R Woody has an excellent chance if things pan out for him and hopefully his unbeaten record at the track becomes 3-3.
4.50 Goodwood ASKUAD 9/1 Knocking on tha door, sure ta make a winning entry soon enough 5.25 Goodwood FITZ FLYER 20/1 Same as the wee lassie above, his winning turn is soon upon us Nearly bagged a wee beauty fa ma supporters yeaterday where tha 14/1 shot advised early left it a wee bit to late ta finish strongly inta second. Nice wee bit o place money landed all the same. Nae shorties here fram me JOB DONE!!
Ganjaman, how canyee say R Woody is unsuited by soft ground when Two ov his three wins have been an soft going? More research required wee man
Goodwood 3.10 Libranno 9/2 If he jumps out and gets across to the rail its game over, 7/4 shot in my book.
Goodwood 2:00-Retrieve E/W 8/1 Start Right E/W 14/1 I have backed both the Goldophin runners E/W in this event Retrieve ran quite well in G1 events down under and he ran well with a big weight at Royal Ascot think he could go well here and Start Right was pretty useful for Luca Cumani has won here at Goodwood before which always helps and is now fitted with a visor which could see some improvement. 2:35-Michelangelo 11/8 Just like Masked Marvel this fella was tipped up by FAMOUSWISE before he had even seen a racecourse and hasn't dissapointed ran well on debut behind Noble Mission but has improved no end since then winning a listed race here and a sales event at Newmarket,Both times over 1m2f,Each time looking better the further the race went on.Will relish the step up to 1m4f and a nailed on good thing today. 3:10-Foxtrot Romeo-9/2 Finished 2nd to Power in the irish guineas and the 6th in the St James Palace stakes.Now dropped in grade and has a huge chance here at a very tasty price. 3:45-Morawij-7/4 Won a Maiden at Haydock and was well backed that day and finished a close 4th in the Norfolk.The winner of that race Reckless Abandon has since come out and won a G2 in France and this fella won the last day when impressively taking a listed event at Sandown.More to come and will win here. 4:15-Huntsman Close 7/2 Holds some high class entries and is well related.Shaped very well on debut at Yarmouth and was ust collored close home sure to improve and can go close here. Daylight E/W 22/1 Cost 70,000 GNs as a yearling and is a half brother to several winners including sprinter day by day.The Yard has had 3 juvenile winners this season and 2 of them have struck on debut. My fav ever running of the Sussex stakes what a horse http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGOeVc6eMZg
Struggling today, can't make my mind up, maybe testament to the very competitive races we have today. 2:35 - I liked the look of Noble Mission, i'm also intrigued by Michelangelo (haha! Get it?) but Oddy, Sir Barney Chuckles and others in The next German Arc winner? thread have convinced me of the credentials of German raider GIROLAMO at a nice price. 3:10 - When I looked last night I was very much into Foxtrot Romeo, highest rated horse in the race receiving weight from the field, step down in trip should suit. But then I looked at LIBRANNO, very good record at goodwood (2 wins from 3) and a good record over 7f (3 wins from 4), Ryan Moore on board, head to head form over Chachamaidee in the form of a 2l defeat to Strong Suit on level weights when not getting a clear run (Majestic Myles 2-3/4L back), chachamaidee beaten 4-1/2l receiving 5lbs from SS. So libranno for me, probably cover my bases with a foxtrot romeo, Libranno reverse forcast
Very interesting to see Tito Bustillo making his chase debut tonight at Perth (7.00). He had a top rating of 139 over hurdles for Paul Nicholls after running some good races in defeat (eg 2 lengths 3rd to Bellvano at Newbury, or his unlucky run in the Vincent O'Brien won by Thousand Stars where he was going really well until badly hampered 2 out) but once it became clear that he wasn't a "top table" player he was soon sent to the smaller tracks with the likes of Scholfield and Mahon on his back and his form tailed off. He moved to Lucinda Russell last year and had one run in November, finished 3rd in a class 3 handicap hurdle off top weight. That has been his only run in the last 15 months so it looks like he has had some problems, but if he can translate his hurdles form to the bigger obstacles he could well take this in receipt of weight from the top 2. On her website, Lucinda Russell writes: "Tito Bustillo has been schooling well recently and seems in good form, if he takes to fences he could be a decent type for the future". Worth a dabble at around the 11/4 mark, particularly as 2 of his 3 career wins have come on soft going. Last week's runaway winner Sun Tzu goes again in the 8.05 but makes little appeal at 6/4 with a 7lbs penalty, particularly as he has never won off a mark higher than 117. The one I prefer against him tonight is Leac An Scail who goes really well for the very capable Samantha Drake and loves to get his toe in and probably didn't see out the 3m2f trip last time out. At 6/1 he looks the proverbial e/w bet to nothing as long as all 8 go to post. Over at Worcester, Phillip Hobbs sends out The Sliotar (8.50) to try and gain compensation for a narrow defeat at the hands of a very smart looking Peter Bowen horse last week and he looks to hold a favourites chance off 118. He gets the blinkers for the first time tonight and can gain a deserved success. Earlier in the card Alan King sends out just the one runner in the shape of Suburban Bay in the 6.20. Whilst he may not be the most talented inmate at Barbury Castle I think the step back up in trip to 2m7f will suit, as his best run to date over fences was over 3 miles at Kempton. A small e/w only on this one as the stable hasn't had a winner for a while. Finally in the 8.20 the Twister sends out Miss Tilly Oscar for her hurdling debut over 2m7f and clearly she is regarded as an out-and-out stayer. She won a bumper on her first start for the Twister and was made favourite for her 2nd bumper but was found out by horses with more speed (the winner was a Nicky Henderson horse, Spartan Angel). Although the ground tonight will be plenty lively enough for her, the trip should bring out her strengths and at 5/1 she will be carrying a few of my Euros. Good luck to everyone
