Saturday's Racing Thread - 14th July - THE DAY OF THE STAG

Have to agree with you Quel - I've thought that, backed accordingly and picked him in the comp - hope we're both right!

 

IMPERIAL MONARCH lump on job

Quel pissed off 7 pints the neet - need to toughen up for York. Have a good day mate

 

Imperial Monarch is the lay of the century, terrible price, will get badly outpaced again off a slow gallop then stay on when the race is finished.

 

Boris don't be so silly - will get outpaced what are you on abbooot ? he haas never been ooot paced before - was in a terrible mess of a race lto00 - will hack up tmz bet u 1m

 

He got outpaced for a full furlong in the French Derby, he will get badly outpaced again tomorrow, there a big difference between making headway on the bridle and sitting stone last going nowhere on the bridle, wouldnt have mattered if he got a gap early, he is not able to pick up quick enough.

Every horse had a hard luck story in the French Derby, Saint Baudolino got one of the worst trips from start to finish, he got messed about something awful and still went close to winning, Imperial Monarch had a beautiful run round the inside out the back, no pressure in the slightest during the trip, then his lack of tactical speed at the stage in a race where you need to be making ground on the bridle, got him into trouble. He then got pulled out wide and took an eternity to hit top stride.

If Saint Baudolino got a gap early, he would have came there on the bridle, he had to sit and suffer for 2 furlongs until the gap appeared, Guyon was taking tugs the whole way because the horse was running up the back of slower animals, he got smashed between two horses to finally get a run then had to switch again off the inside. It was a terrible trip and he was the unluckiest horse in the race imo, he should be clear favourite for this race and your getting 9/2 because the mug punters are reading IM's run badly wrong.

If Saint Baudolino isnt fav on the pari mutuel ill be amazed.

 

The French Derby if you are taking that form seriously I have instantly lost all respect for you

 

Who said anything about the substance of the form?

I couldnt give a **** about your respect either m8

Your a bad judge.

 

Boris GL fella

 

hi, first time tip on here - probably going to be a sure lay now i've tipped it especially when its up against a horse ridden by william buick but he caught my eye when i was at goodwood during his maiden.

newmarket 2:10 - olympic glory

won his maiden by a mile at goodwood then followed that up with an extremely impressive performance in the coventry stakes, at ascot, finishing second to dawn approach. may have won that race if it were not for a poor start but he finished like a train but ultimately it wasn't enough, just can't give dawn approach that kind of lead.

 

THUNDERBALL - (Hamilton, 19:15) 25/1

TAKEITFROMALADY - (Salisbury, 20:05) 3/1

WOODLAND MILL - (Newbury, 15:50) 66/1

SENAFE - (Newmarket, 16:30) 10/1

MAXENTIUS - (Newmarket, 14:10) 3/1....already backed this wee fella at big odds fa tha 2,000 next year

STEVIE THUNDER - (Newmarket, 14:40) 25/1

Already backed SOCIETY ROCK in tha July Cup @ 8/1 earlier in tha week.


JOB DONE!!

 

GL to you too RV, if your backing IM I would do it on the Pari Mutuel because you will get a much fairer price.

 

Will probs just leave the race alone Boris just spouting ****e after a night oot - shocking effort the neet only 7 pints managed - will have a proper look in the morning.

NUFC lose to a side that finished 9th in the German third division last season

 

Could be worst RV- you could have gone in to div 3

 

Anyway ladies im off to bed, catch you all tomorrow- quel have a good day/nite tomorrow

 

Ballymacoll had a terrible 2011 with 5 winners and this year they doubled their score on Thursday to 2 winners so things need to look up. Their first winner of the year was Sir John Hawkwood (1.40 Newmarket), a Sir Percy colt who impressively won on his racecourse debut (Sir Percy must have been about the cheapest stallion they used in 2008!!). This colt is well connected being a grandson of the Irish 1000G winner and Irish Oaks 2nd Gaily. That makes him a relation of that tough customer Pilsudski, who won Group 1s all over the world. Apparently not as tough, SJH currently needs long spells between races.
He was surprisingly entered for last Autumn's Horses in Training sale but withdrawn after showing well in some September gallops. This year the gallops were just as well regarded and he duly came home on his racecourse debut after a far from clear run by 5 lengths. He then had an easy time at home before a few sparkling gallops were seen in the last few weeks.
Ballymacoll have a poor lot of 3yos but this colt could be the exception. Won't win anyone a fortune as he's only 7-2 at present but I'm expecting him to deliver today.
SJH's dam Athene is the only relative of Gaily left in the stud. She is now getting on and needs a suitable daughter. She has produced 2 group winners in Side Saddle and Greek Renaissance, as well as the useful sprinter Machinist. Thankfully her 2yo this year is the Oasis Dream filly, Supernova Heights, who ran a promising debut on Thursday. She will come on for that run.

 

Quele, have an absolutely fabulus day- having winners or losers doesn't matter, enjoy the stag mate and have a fab time!


I am mainly interested in just one race at Newmarket: The July Cup- 3.20.


I have championed the case of SEPOY 9/1 on the July Cup thread a couple of weeks ago and the ground has come for him. He is an excellent sprinter, can race prominently and kick on for home and that is an advantage as he can avoid traffic troubles and travel on this testing ground, which is more than a lot of the field. He has to bounce back from two poor Dubai runs but Dubai form is taken with a pinch of salt and Australian sprinters do well here. He won 10 of 12 in Australia (though did avoid Black Caviar) but crucially the ground is in his favour here whereas arguably Black Caviar struggled a bit more on a softer surface, although was a cosy winner in a sense. The really interesting fact is that this is his first run for Godolphi, yet is expected to retire after this race. As was mentioned on the DT yesterday, Godolphin are looking to inject some speed into their breeding ranks but they would not want this horse to run badly on its final start and Al Zarooni will have him absolutely spot on for this one off race. Really interesting price and he has shortened from the 14s available last week.


That said, I have made a conscious decision on a saver on STRONG SUIT 10/1. A lot of horses are labeled classy but this is genuinely a horse that deserves it. Let me just show you its Coventry win from two years ago:

[video=youtube;frMS-tswr0A]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frMS-tswr0A[/video]



He hit so much trouble, had to weave from side to side, yet still got up and won going away from the rest of a good field. He is a serious, serious animal, proven over 7f and I suspect can be much like Dream Ahead- just as good over 6f. There are doubts over the ground, but he has better form on good ground than fast ground and therefore he strikes me as a horse who will travel on most surfaces. People are writing him off because he was well beaten behind Frankel last time but EXACTLY the same happened last season when he needed his reappearance. He was beaten 13L last year, 19L this year, and I think that probably tells you more about Frankel than it does Strong Suit. This might be the big opportunity to catch him at frankly stunning value.



Those are my top 2 in the July Cup and I fancy both to run big races.

 

The other bet over at Newbury in the super sprint is a bit of a punt but at 20/1 e.w is interesting- CEELO 20/1.

Richard Hannon targets the big pots, his yard shaped bang in form all day on Friday. This horse shaped really well behind Smoothtalkinrascal, who himself shaped so well in Group Company on Thursdays Newmarket card, and with improvement expected I think he is the one who can run to a figure high enough to be right in the super sprint frame.

 

One for Quele at York 2.25- WESTERN PEARL 25/1 shaped really nicely behind SIMENON at Ascot and the shorter trip will help today, massively. Acts on ground with give, looked menacing for a long way last time, and offers a very interesting e/w alternative.

 

15:20 Newmarket - Society Rock

(Seems to have outstanding chance given current ground conditions?).

GL today everyone!

 

Bated breath NR