1.20 Newmarket: REWARDED 9/2 Showed some really smart form last season as a 2YO and has shaped much, much better than form figures suggest this time around. Being by Motivator she strikes me as one to improve up in trip and 10f has looked on the sharp side late. I think she is the value call against two short, talented and unexposed favourites in Shantaram and Valiant. She might just be able to travel all over them- but that is when the stamina questions wll be answered. 1.50 Newmarket: SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL 14/1 e.w I think this race is a lot, lot closer than the market suggests and I think that perhaps the form of the Coventry and the Norfolk might be a touch overrated at the moment. Cristoforo Columbo wasturned over at short odds after Royal Ascot remember and I think we ought to be looking for improvers up in trip here. I still think Sir Prancealot is better over 5f for win purposes and his racing style suggests it, though he is the most talented. As well as Gale Force Ten ran on at Ascot, the winner hung all over the place yet still won, so I'm inclined for now to say that form is weaker than would normally be the case for that race. Therefore I am more interested in the Windsor Forest form- ALHEBAYAB was 2nd that day and kept on really well from the front but a yard in form at the moment as is expected at this time of year from one that improves their horses run by run is that of Brian Meehan, hence SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL, who shaped with bundles of promise when a never nearer 3L 7th at Royal Ascot in the same race, might be the one to improve beyond them up in trip today. 3.00 HARRIS TWEED is always a tough nut to crack in these conditions because he wil force you to answer stamina questions. However FIORENTE is a horse who has been given time to come to himself this season in good company and will be cherry ripe today. He was 13L behind Sea Moon last time out but that is no real surprise, and his reappearance can be forgiven because he certainly needed that. You would just think that at his best he might just stay well enough in the softish conditions (stayed on v.well behind Nathaniel at Ascot last year) and might get home better than some of the principles. 3.35 Newmarket: SUPERNOVA HEIGHTS 16/1 e.w I have been intrigued to see this filly make her debut since I saw it entered up at another meeting some time ago. Meehan puts her in with some very nice types here and Fallon is booked up for the first time run (as he was scheduled to on the intended debut before the ground concerns). Meehan said in an interview that like most of his youngsters, she will learn a lot from debut but that they would not be surprised if this one did manage to bold showing first time up, and that is significant I feel. I think this is one of the best bred horses he has sent out all year and I wonder if it might turn out to be his best filly- he has been short of good fillies so far this year and he usually has one somewhere (think THEYSKENS THEORY/SHUMOOS etc). Nice value price to have a speculative couple of pennies on e/w. Placepot: REWARDED/VALIANT SIR PRANCEALOT NABUCCO/PILGRIMS REST JAKKALBERRY/FIORENTE CERTIFY/TEQUILA SUNRISE/SUPERNOVA HEIGHTS MUKHADRAM/SOVEREIGN DEBT
Possibly a lucky last for us- 4.40 Newmarket: MEDICI TIME 16/1 The mark has slipped back down nicely, the ground is not too quick for him to be outpaced, is back to 5f (25% strike rate 5 from 20) with a career best at this venue and an excellent running on 4th to the then smart Astrophysical Jet. Interesting.
Now they have been priced up Mukhadram in the 4:05 at Newmarket looks very well priced at 5/1 and will be my NAP tomorrow. Progressive type. Haggas/Hanagan. Will appreciate the drop back in trip.
Anyone know the draw bias for Newmarket? Stalls are far side, anyone know if high or low will be on the inside rail for the bend on 1m2f+ races?
3.25 Warwick TOBY TYLER 12/1 3.35 Newmarket NEW FFOREST 16/1 4.40 Newmarket JEDWARD 16/1 6.00 Folkestone ELMORA 66/1 It's gonna be a big pay day tamara JOB DONE!
taken from John Berrys blog, hope he doesnt mind, its always a good read: Someone else who will, I hope, be taking a step forward will be Wasabi at Epsom tomorrow. She's struggled in her three maiden races, but she should find things a lot easier tomorrow on her handicap bow off a rating of 58. This isn't a tipping column and this isn't meant to be a tip - but it's just a statement of the obvious that it'll be easier to run off a rating of 58 in a handicap than at level weights in a maiden race. Whether she'll be able to take enough of a step forward tomorrow remains to be seen - as she's by Tiger Hill from a Carnegie mare, she might well end up needing more time and more distance still - but it's always a pleasure taking a nice horse to Epsom, so I'm looking forward to seeing how she'll fare. 7.55 Epsom 33/1 atm
3.25 Warwick Masked Dance 8/1 NAP Rather sweet on the chances of Scott Dixon's 5 year old who I think could prove very difficult to beat today. Although he's got to jump back from two bad runs (excuses can be made for both), he'll relish the return to testing conditions and is now only 1lb higher than when scoring in a higher grade 3 starts back as he very interestingly returns to a Warwick where he was successful on his sole start at the track back in 2010. He represents a trainer who is bang in form whose last two runners have won and its rather interesting Dixon sends Masked Dance as his sole representative to a track where he has never had a runner before and which represents a 4 hour round trip for connections. Formerly progressive for Kevin Ryan reaching a handicap peak of 92, Masked Dance joined Dandy Nicholls last year and had one start for him back in November last year. After this, he joined the newly established Scott Dixon yard as did many of Dandy Nicholls horses given one of his primary owners Paul Dixon moved many of his horses to his brothers yard and after a couple of reappearance runs after a 5 month break Masked Dance got off the mark for his new trainer. In his first two starts for his new yard, Masked Dance was pretty awful being beaten by 24L on both occasions but I'm putting that down to a combination of getting his handicap mark to fall (7lb in to runs) and also to get him fully race fit. On his 3rd start for the yard and his 3rd last start Masked Dance was a rather well backed winner at Ascot over 6f on soft ground in a Class 3 event in May off a mark of 83. In the 5 runner field, Masked Dance under the hands of Tom Queally sat just on the quarters of Chilli Green for the first 3 furlongs before getting slightly pushed along from about half way. This 5 year old gelding responded well to Queally's urgings and after receiving two firm cracks with the whip he drew alongside before a further two brought him to the lead. From here on in, I think Queally had quite a bit of horse left under him as he was pushed out hands and heels to record a 0.75L victory. Although its often dangerous taking the form of 5 runner events too literally, I think the fact that the first two home made the running and seemed to go a decent clip allows the form of this race to merit the bare figures and as such I have assessed it in that way. The form of the race looks rather strong with the runner up Chilli Green scoring off the same mark upped to a Class 2 on his next start and it was a really likeable performance by Masked Dance. After this race, Masked Dance was raised to a mark of 85 as he contested a Class 3 handicap at Thirsk 8 days after his victory. He was slightly disappointing that day as he finished an 5L beaten 8th but it wasn't too bad an effort on good to soft ground and it may have come slightly too quickly after his previous run. Moreover, it appears it was a pretty hot contest with the 2nd and 3rd winning subsequently whilst the winner and 5th have been a head and short head beaten 2nd subsequently off the same or higher marks so in hindsight it wasn't really too bad an effort. His last start I'm completely ignoring a month ago at Nottingham in a Class 2 event as the good ground was clearly too quick for him (subsequently a non runner on similar ground) as he came home last. Todays race represents a much easier assignment as he drops back into a Class 4 on ground heavy ground that shouldn't be a problem to him at all. He's only 1lb higher than scoring 3 runs back in a higher grade so I think 8s looks a huge price given it was only such a short time ago that he was last successful. He won for Kevin Ryan off a mark of 87 last July so judged on this and his last win I really don't see any reason why he won't be up to defying a mark of 84. I think its very significant that he returns to a track where he has been successful before, especially as its the yard first venture to this track. Mirco Demuro, who is 1-1 for the yard after riding their last runner Sacrosantus, takes the reigns today and he interestingly comes to Warwick for one ride before heading off to Epsom later tonight. I think its going to be interesting to see what tactics the yard use as he could try and make all (did so over 7f in his success at the track) or Demuro could sit just behind We Have A Dream and try and kick off the home bend. Either way Demuro is an excellent rider, especially from the front, and I think he'll be able to get him to land this contest regardless of which tactics are adopted. I think its very intersting Masked Dance is due to run in the Stewards Cup Handicap at Hamilton on Saturday and surely if connections feel he's good enough to be contesting a race of that nature then he should really be up to winning a contest of this nature. I think Scott Dixon could have a good day tomorrow as I think his two other runners at Doncaster Sir Geoffrey 6/1 and Dr Red Eye 3/1 have excellent chances and I've played all three in doubles and trebles.
The draw is rarely an issue at Newmarket, tbh. On soft ground runners do tend to come up either rail, but they can come anywhere up the track, and it's mostly small fields today. From the 1m2f start, low numbers might have a small advantage as they can grab the rail. I assume it's the 3yold handicap over that trip you're interested in?
1.20 Valient, 11/4 with Hills, might lay some off if it's backed. Ground it out at York last time where the long straight appeared to suit, and should relish the step up in trip. Shantaram will be favourite, is well clear on the figures, and difficult to oppose given stable form, so perhaps worth a saver. 1.50 Alhebayeb is a tasty price at around 7.4 on Betfair. Another race in which it is difficult to oppose the fav, stablemate Sir Prancelot, who many felt chose the wrong race at Royal Ascot when 3.5 L behind Dawn Approach in the Coventry. The selection looks progressive though, and was only beaten 1/2 L in the Windsor castle at the royal meeting. i can't see beyond the Hannon pair myself, but then I rarely look much further in 2yold races.
Yep. Trying to find a reason not to lump a load on Nabucco. Am hoping Hajras or one of the others is backed into favouritism so I can take advantage of Paddy Powers money back special. Money back if your horse finishes 2nd to the sp fav. Feeling good about my picks today, and it looks as though most posters in the forum are on the same horses. Though whenever I get my hopes up I win nothing. 1.20 - SHANTRAM 6/4 1.50 - AHERN 9/2 2.25 - NABUCCO 4/1 3.00 - HARRIS TWEED 5/2 3.35 - HASANAN 16/1 4:05 - MUKHADRAM 5/1 4.40 - MEDICI TIME 14/1
Two for me today, I can't say I've seen a lot of the runners in the first but I will be backing VALIANT purely for the trainer/jockey combination. The second is MODUN who I strongly fancy to take the 3.00, Harris Tweed should ensure that they go at a good pace hopefully setting the race up for Modun to stay on strongly at the finish.
I have started as a bit of fun trying to get a pool of selections from our multitude of esteemed tipsters to form into an official 606 yankee. It has it's own post so if anyone who has posted various selections on here would be happy to put up there 1st, 2nd 3rd best bets at Newmarket today that would be great. It does not matter if you are joining in with the yankee or not but those that are would i am sure benefit from your selections anyway.
13:50 Newmarket - Alhebayeb (Agree with Archers Road comments here. Hope I don't mogador it for him!).
Slightly late in getting back on line but a good start to the day with a winner... Well done to those on Shantaram...
Elsewhere at Donny Eric Alston sends two runners there both in the same race, Thats Molly and Red Baron... I just have a fancy for Thats Molly after her last run at Ripon and hopefully will improve for that run here... 3.15 Donny - Thats Molly, 4/1...
