I am not very well versed in sectional times Princess but it appears that Frankel has run the fastest furlong run during the whole meeting, which i guess is quite amazing when you think that the King Stand is over 5 furlongs and the Jubilee over 6f and so those horses had to run less distance. Would you say that the relatively slow final furlong would suggest a possibility he will not stay or would you say he was simply asked to win his race at the 5f pole and eased down?
I'd say he was simply eased down. Tom Queally took the best part of 2f to pull the horse up after the line so I'd have no qualms about him staying the trip. As has been said, he has a very high cruising speed which stretches the other horses, when he then changes gear the exceleration is just too much for anything else to live with. I understand that they are trying to measure his stride length, but it certainly looks to be bigger than most other horses. At the Kentucky Horse Park they have a series of markers near the Man O'War statue that show how big Secretariat's stride is, clocking in at a whopping 24ft
Just to add, a bit of amateur guess work puts Frankel's stride at about 22ft according to this article: (in reference to his St James' Palace win last year) "Frankel took 30 strides to cover the penultimate furlong in 13.1sec, after which he held a four-length cushion over nearest pursuer Excelebration. But, though he could muster a final furlong of only 13.8sec, allowing the strong-finishing Zoffany to close to three-quarters of a length, he again used 30 strides. In other words, Frankelâs average stride frequency was reducing, from 137 strides per minute to 130, but his average stride length was not: 22 feet per stride from the two-pole to the furlong-marker and the same home. (These measurements are subject to a tolerance imposed by the limitations of the human eye.) A tired horse usually shortens its stride. This is some function of reduced muscle efficiency, though it is also linked to respiration: like many four-legged mammals, it takes exactly one breath per stride. So shorter strides, or more strides per second, provide more oxygen. As Frankel galloped up the straight, his average stride-length in each of the last two furlongs was constant and his stride frequency was actually decreasing. This isnât the usual pattern with tired horses, but it may be some evidence that he was doing exactly what his jockey said he was doing: resisting the instruction to keep going â idling, in other words."
His full brother Noble Mission was runner up in the King Edward over 12 furlongs, so Frankel will stay alright. Just because a horse is slowing down in the final furlong it doesn't mean they ate not staying, they may just hit top gear to far out and aren't able to sustain it. It's like if you got Yeats the best stayer of them all to go flat out for 4 furlongs his last furlong would be the slowest, would that make him a non stayer?
I have never doubted that Frankel would stay the proposed 10 furlongs and actually feel he could win a group 1 over 12f although perhaps not a top notch Arc ran at a fast pace on Autumn ground. I feel if he were entered in a small field King George at Ascot however he could win. I think i was just surprised how his final furlong slowed so much but presumed he was eased. If he was eased, if he had something to make him race that track record would have been smashed.
The fact that his full brother stays easily has no bearing on whether or not Frankel will stay. Talking about full/half siblings, etc is misleading as in reality they may share very little in common on a genetic basis. Horses have 32 pairs of chromosomes (compared to our 24). A foal will inherit one chromosome from each parent for each of the 32 traits, so for every trait there are four different permutations that could arise. In reality (assuming an equal chance), only 1 in 4 matings could throw up a true match. Factor in the other 31 chromosomes and in reality you actually only have a 1 in 128 chance of getting a true genetic match! Science lesson over Edit to add - it would be very interesting to see if this could be replicated in an experiment. In theory it would be possible to gain 128 eggs from one mare, inseminate them with semen from the same stallion and implant them in surrogate mares.
You'd need a lot more than 128 eggs to be confident of a true distribution. If there are 4 possibilities for each chromosome, and 32 chromosomes, then you need 1 in 4 to the power 32 attempts to get a perfect match (as in a literal clone of Frankel). That is a humongous number: about 20 billion billion billion... Which even Frankels owner might struggle to fund.
Some strides I've chased up. 28 ft. Man o' War. 28 ft. Bernborough. 27 ft. Phar Lap. 27 ft. Black Caviar. 26 ft Todman. 25.5 ft. John Henry. 24 ft. Secretariat.
Bustino, the above list, although short, throws up some interesting things when it comes to a change of gears. Most of them were middle distance - staying types, but Black Caviar, Todman and Bernborough were all crack sprinters.
I hasten to add that the 22ft stride length has not actually been measured, it's been worked out by someone counting how many strides he took in a given furlong and the time it took him to cover the distance and doing the maths, which I have evidently shown I am incapable of
