If she goes off at 1/2, which I very much doubt, I'd be very tempted to get involved.* As far as I'm concerned there is no sprinter over here that could even give Haylist a race nevermind Black Caviar.* The only issue is wether she copes with the travelling and adjusts to our climate.* Lets be realistic if the race was in Australia she'd be 1/20*
Let's try to assess the risk of losing our money if we backed her at 2/1on. Imagine there was a shock result. What would the excuse be? No silly answers please. Oh go on then; don't want an empty thread.
I want the mare to win, but at 1-2 she's no value as far as I'm concerned. There is so much against her. 12,000 miles, different climate, a track the likes she's never before encountered and a massive field size. If they brought the entire field to Flemington, she'd be 1-10, but over there is a whole different ball game.
Are you saying she will get second to Moonlight Cloud Mick? Or do you think that if, for whatever reason, she doesn't perform to her ability, she may end up 4th or 5th? Would you be happy to lay her at 2/1on?
Now thats a good bet. Lump on the double, once frankel hoses up lay of enough on BC to cover costs and book a nice profit if she obliges.
If you want to take on Black Caviar, though I don't really understand why, then I think you are far better laying her than trying to find one to beat her. We see time and time again that a rag can come and win these races so I would be a layer if I wanted to take her on. I don't want to take her on though. She's head and shoulders above our sprinters, I can't imagine that the track is going to be a major problem and plenty of the best that we have to offer will be rerouted to the Kings' Stand (Bated Breath and Hoof It as two examples). If the journey is an issue then Moody won't run her so if she turns up on the day then 1/2 will look decent. Provided she's within a stone of her very best form she should win which gives her plenty of margin for error. If you think she is a 1/10 shot if this was run on an Aussie track and you think that 1/2 isn't value then you must think she is very likely to not handle the track. I agree that the double is a super bet. Lump on, watch Frankel win, then either lay off or watch Black Caviar win depending on where you stand.
She probably is the best sprinter of all time, but she has to come to Ascot and prove it. She was never going to get any global recognition just racing in Australia
Well I live round the corner, and my lawn would probably be described as soft. I don't think they would run on soft, thoug it's a few weeks away, and its June, so I would be hopeful that it will be normal summer ground by Royal Ascot. It would be a real let down if she didn't run though
Simple fact is, if she runs, she wins. Why try '' get her beat'', because she will not be beat, simple as.
