1. Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!

Premier League Title Odds 12/13

Discussion in 'Newcastle United' started by Albert's Chip Shop, May 25, 2012.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Jesus Was A Geordie

    Jesus Was A Geordie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    4,944
    Likes Received:
    145
    Last year we were 1000/1 to win it, so our odds have still dropped dramatically!
     
    #21
  2. Darth Tash

    Darth Tash Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2012
    Messages:
    16,276
    Likes Received:
    3,048
    The 1st sentence is correct. I remember how Liverpool fans bigged up this nob, I watched him several times and he looked average. Then he had a great game right before he got injured, he got in team of the week and then everyone hyped him the **** up. Granted he's better than Spearing definitely a more tactical midfielder than any of your others, but unfortunately you have to deal with that ****!

    We've had to deal with Tiote being injured and he's played with knocks for most of his games, and he's had to been covered by Guthrie and Perch, but hey, no point in complaining and saying your season would have been better with these players, because anyone can say that!!! Imagine where we could have finished if Steven Taylor hadn't have gotten injured when he did? We'd certainly have more point that we have now... but so ****ing what? **** happens.

    2nd sentence - He's a ****er. Swearing at grounds, diving like a little bitch constantly, and he's guilty of racism. I don't give two ****s about Evra, but who he said it too isn't the issue. 9 games was maybe a bit harsh, but he definitely should have gotten a suspension. If players can get suspended for foul and abusive language, then Racism should be punished severely. Anyways, suppose the suspension was cut from 9 to say 5-6 games. Do you really think he'd have changed things that much? Because when he played, he was hit and miss, and when he created things for other players, they couldn't find the target.

    3rd - Not trying to say we're the most unlucky side in the PL but we've had our injuries and suspensions but no point in feeling sorry for ourselves or saying "what would have happened if he wasn't injured" or w/e.

    4th sentence relates to the 5th, what you won in the past shouldn't give you better odds to win things in the future. It's like saying Blackburn should be higher odds than they are to win a title because they've done it more recently than other teams around them...

    We haven't won anything in a while (not sure it's as long as 50), but just because we aint finished 1st in anything for ages, doesn't mean had no success or haven't been a great team.

    Of course we should have won something, and it is a disappointment, but we made our mark when we were at the top, we had a fantastic team that wont be forgotten.
     
    #22
  3. Samuel L Ameobi

    Samuel L Ameobi Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2011
    Messages:
    1,924
    Likes Received:
    1
    I think its more to do with Scoucers deluded betting ideology than anything else.
     
    #23
  4. Albert's Chip Shop

    Albert's Chip Shop Top Grafter
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2011
    Messages:
    72,366
    Likes Received:
    37,732
    Very well put
     
    #24
  5. Colin Sharpe

    Colin Sharpe Member

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2011
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    19
    odds are based on money bet, i.e. a lot of money will shorten the odds on something, which covers the bookies back.

    this does mean that often knowledge can be 'crowd sourced' through odds, but not always.

    with an actual event this can be quite precise, like Keegan leaving, which was first made apparent by bookies suspending betting, which they do at the point that something is too likely for them to effectively throw money away on it. A couple of massive bets on something, placed by lucky (an genuine) club insiders should be enough to do this.

    with something like over-all league winners it is a bit more crowd-sourced and the odds tend to reflect the beliefs of a population, fuelled by their knowledge. That's why we got decent win the prem odds for next season and not for last.

    however, in situations where a population demonstrates collective delusion odds can be much shorter on a particular outcome than reality suggests they should be.
     
    #25
  6. Colin Sharpe

    Colin Sharpe Member

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2011
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    19
    - succinct, and do-away with tact, I like it ;-)
     
    #26
  7. the liebherr era

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2012
    Messages:
    52
    Likes Received:
    0
    You can't really blame your position on 2 players being injured or banned, you have spent over 100 million in the past 2 years while Necastle haven't even spent a fraction of that . By sending that much you should have been able to replace lucas and suarez with no problem. However, saying that i reckon Liverpool will do well next year if they find a good manager
     
    #27
  8. Freddd

    Freddd Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2011
    Messages:
    4,517
    Likes Received:
    1,162
    I think people have to remember how odds are set.

    Bookies will offer the shortest odds that people will stil stake a bet on. If, for example, a bookies actually thought the chances of Liverpool winning the title was 250/1 but realised that people were willing to stake money on 33/1, he will offer 33/1. Everyone always pays the lowest price they can for anything. The odds are what the bookies pay to "buy" the punters' bets.

    what that tablre shows is that people will part with their money at 33/1 for Liverpool but not on Newcastle - - call it a general delusion index, if you like.

    The reality is that neither has any realistic chance - - I can't imagine what would have to happen for either of us to win it. People have a more realsitic assessment of our chances than they do of Liverpool's.
     
    #28
  9. Chappaz

    Chappaz Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2011
    Messages:
    6,754
    Likes Received:
    12
    All the odds are ****ing stupid really. 33/1, 150/1, all of them. In reality, it should be decent odds for Man Utd and Man City, then 100,000/1 for every other team, because that's how likely they are to win the title. The gulf between the two Manchester sides and the other teams is just far too high, especially as both Man Utd and Man City are not only far stronger now, but it will also undoubtedly strengthen more than every other side in this transfer window.
     
    #29
  10. milner_for_england

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2011
    Messages:
    360
    Likes Received:
    9
    We've normally laughed at the fee Liverpool played and his current form. I for one have not doubted he will be a good player again (seems to be coming back to form for England now showing he doesn't have the heart to play well for Liverpool alone). He's a better player than Holt and Crouch for many reasons, one being he can use his feet unlike Holt, and use his head unlike crouch.
     
    #30

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page