Why are Toon fans resigned to the fact that we'll slip down the table due to Europa??

I understand where some people are coming from that it will be a lot of games and it will lead to us having a few slip ups, and finding it hard to compete in the PL, but I believe that we will strengthen this summer, and we will have the necessary depth to finish in the top 6 again, and perhaps push for a CL place.

We've already proven that we can grind out results with a less than full strength team, and our squad players can step up to the mark.

I've heard a lot of 8th/9th place predictions.

Remember Liverpool also have Europa League action to think about, in fact, 7 out of the top 8 teams are in European competitions.

Only Everton in the top 8 have only the premier league to consider.

We NEED to finish in a Europa League spot next season to keep our best players. Pardew knows this, no point in finishing outside a European spot unless we win the Europa League which will be very hard.

Some people bring up other clubs as an example like Stoke.

We are much stronger than Stoke.

I believe we'll find it hard, but if we strengthen in the right areas, we will have the depth and quality to have a decent Europa League run and do well in the PL.

 

No I think we'll be in and around the top 6 again. We'll strengthen and I have faith we'll pick up the required quality to maintain progress. I also think we have a few youngsters who can step up in Fergie, Sameobi, Streete, Tavanier, Vuckic, Abeid. With Saylor and Marveaux like new signings I think we'll be well equipped if we add two or three first teamers and a smattering of squad/young players.

Also we have a shrewd manager who will know he can't go breaking his squad by over using them early doors. He is tactically estute and will find systems to utilise the whole squad while getting results.

And last but not least the age of our current squad should mean with good coaching that progress is normal.

 

1) Many say we were lucky with injuries this season, we might not be so lucky next year and with a relatively small squad that could have a huge impact on our league placing.
2) If we lose some of our key (top quality players) and can only replace them with less-established, cheaper (not necessarily lower quality) players, then we will suffer at least somewhat.
3) We could be playing around 3 games a week, which is tactically exhausting. Think of all the effort and planning that goes into just one fixture. With the Europa league on our plate and possibly some good runs in the cups, our back room staff are up against it!

Those are just a few that come to mind. Now.. before you shoot me down and call me a pessimist, I'm not!

These scenarios are all dependent upon what happens in the summer. If we can increase the size and quality of the squad, then number 1 can be ignored. Likewise for number 2, if we can hold on to our best players, such as Tiote, Cabaye and Cisse, along with number 1, we'd have the resources to do well.

3 is unavoidable in my opinion, whilst the club can invest in more people to scout opponent's games ahead of time, there'll always be an element of having less time to prepare for each individual match. But then... we seem to play well on the back of previous wins and play badly on the back of lengthy (2 week) breaks...

So I guess the real answer is... WHO KNOWS?

 

1) How the **** were we lucky with injuries? Explain this to me?
2) Ashley wont sell for less than a ridiculous price, and I don't think many would be willing to pay the fees necessary to get our players because they could probably get better for the same or less.
3) Agreed, but as I said, the other teams in the 8 are in the same boat, we'll all be weakened by our Europeans campaigns, it's not as if the other teams don't have the same burden we do.

All the pessimists (not saying your one) are giving reasons that are entirely based on chance. Maybe we will have 12 players come down with aids on the opening day of the season. **** can happen to any team.

We certainly were not lucky last season, and at times we were playing with our top players out. Cabaye and Tiote being out, no Ben Arfa.

FFS we have to play with Guthrie and Perch at one point with Obertan on the wing. But the important thing is... WE STILL WON GAMES.

We may not be as pretty with a weaker team, but we still ground out results and that's why we've done well.

Manure have had bad injuries, and so have other teams, but what makes them successful is playing **** and winning or making the best out of their resources and putting a strategy together that achieves victory.

 

Don't generalise Tash. I think we will win the prem next year.

 

We picked up a few injuries throughout the season, but other than Saylor's we've barely suffered. All I'm saying is that we are a club that has seen many of it's best players pick up lengthy injuries in the past, and that this season we've finished relatively unscathed.

In addition, Marveaux has just returned (despite not establishing himself in the squad)... in which case, if he can keep fit, he will seem like a new signing.

I agree with you on Ashley not selling unless he gets good money, I'm just worried that he will be offered good money. Personally I can see Tiote staying and Demba leaving, which is not the worst situation in the world considering, of recent, Cisse has been doing all of the scoring. Simpson looks likely to leave, which I think could be a good thing for the squad, allowing us to bring in a higher quality replacement.

 

Chelsea have just won the jackpot ( around €50M) yesterday night and Liverpool will definitely be strengthening their squad this summer so they'll be more competition for Top 5.
Think that if we can't add quantity and quality to the squad we should send a B-team for our away trips and play our best team for home matches .... if we win our playoff

 

I don't actually think we've been that lucky with injuries.
Saylor was out from December to end of season
Marv was out from October till May
Willo missed the first half of the season
HBA missed the first few weeks of the season
Colo missed a few games (notably Norwich)
Tiote missed a large part of the season
Best missed from March till the end of season

While most of them are squad players, who knows where we'd be if we had that extra depth. Marveaux may have been a bigger miss than any of us think, I'm sure it was his first start where he ended up getting injured.

 

We've limped through certain parts of this season because we've barely had enough quality cover when our best players were away/injured/suspended.

It's utterly amazing that we've finshed in 5th place - a fact that will show itself next season when our limited squad will be tested even further.

I don't share the optimism that we will sign many new faces this summer - I get the feeling we will get two or three in, but that was required anyway if we wanted any chance of repeating this seasons amazing results.

The Europa League will be a massive drain on our playing staff and that shouldn't be underestimated - I think the fact Birmingham had to play in it affected their chances of promotion this season. As the OP mentioned, Stoke City took a big turn down in form even though they filled out their squad quite a bit.

 

Also, I think there seems to be a difference in the next season performance of teams who get into Europa by the cup and by the league. From what I've seen, teams using the league seem to do better, Spurs for example, than stoke this year.

 

the injury argument is incorrect, at one point we had our first three central defenders out, something that would scupper even the top teams, we also had a number of long-term injuries: Saylor; Marveaux; Willo; - I'm not arguing we had it bad with injuries, but arguing we were lucky with injuries is not true.

i don't buy the squad depth argument either really - we played 22 / 23 players in the league (not sure if Abeid started) - we can only name 25 !

as an example: Tottenham played 22 players in the league (a further two appeared in cups but not in the league)

 

There was a Dutch guy on Talk Sport the other day who has researched into this. He studied 27,000 games and found there is a 40% lesser chance of winning when you play on a Thursday in the Europa League and have to play in the league less than 3 days later. The facts are indisputable. Either we expand our squad or we will definitely drop.

 

When was I generalising?

 

Well I'm sorry but anyone who states we've been lucky with injuries is just being silly. We've not been "unlucky", but it's not like you can look at our team and state that we've had luck with injuries really.

We've had to play weakened times quite a lot this season. We've had to deal without some key players and still ground out results.

 

Ok so if we got to the final we would play 19 games in total but only 17 before EPL games with an average of ~1.7 points per game we would lose about 11 points which would be 54 points in 7th. So not that much strengthening to do really.

 

On Talksport and indisputable are not words that ever go together.

 

I'm sorry Tash but compared to other season we have beeen lucky but that says more about the other season. Got to be honest I see 8 or 9 teams ahead of the rest next year and at the lower end of that includes us.

 

I think you'll go down.

I'm sure you'll think that stupid, but it's happened to Lens in France and Hertha Berlin in Germany in the past few years, and they're just the sides I can think of...

 

Just like his Avatar.... Childish...

 

I gave an honest opinion. Just because I think you'll do poorly I'm a child? Great logic. It happened to Ipswich in 2002, so it can happen to you. More examples from abroad - Celta Vigo and Real Zaragoza both got relegated from La Liga after finishing 5th/6th and playing in the UEFA Cup. Christ, Villarreal were in the Champions League this season and went down.

Play nicely.