Evening folks. Apologies in advance that I wont be partaking in any discussion tomorrow as I'm back at work, so to allow me chance to put forward some interesting lines of discussion, I'm opening the daily thread now. Having looked at todays results after what I wrote earlier, its a ****ing good job I have closed my accounts, having tipped up the chances of Twirl, Waffle, and the lame Flag Officer (any news on that injury?). Still though, the lack of betting doesnt stop me from discussing the odd horse here or there in relation to the big races coming up this flat season and I'm of the opinion that Ernest Hemingway might be a really smart performer in the making for the Ballydoyle team. Two things tend to strike me about the Dante- it is a 10f trip and therefore those that are impressive in the Dante usually have a good cruising speed, one of the best examples being last years winner, Carlton House, as opposed to strong stayers, the last one being Workforce, beaten in the Dante yet romping home to a powerful Derby win. So I'm looking for slick movers, a good crusing speed, and a turn of foot to go with it. Bonfire will undoubtedly come on for the run. It's been a while off the track now and Andrew Balding was adamant that he wanted a race in him before Epsom, so he will not be perfect today and for that reason I will oppose. For those of you looking from a betting perspective, 2/1 is short given the lack of a run, not knowing where we are from 2-3 in terms of development, and also not really knowing the trip. I thought he looked to be relish the soft ground at Saint Cloud and whilst I might be proven wrong, I just can't see him going quite as well tomorrow. He will stay the trip, but lack the turn of foot on this surface IMO. Mandaean on the other hand I think will be much more at home on the good ground and he was impressive in France on such a surface on debut last year. He looks the sort who can quicken well and seems to stay, and I think if he gets it all his own way up front he will be tough to catch because he really does increase the speed very quickly and takes some stopping. However for me there is more than enough reason to follow Ernest Hemingway, not just through the Dante but through the season. Beautifully bred, by Galileo and out of John Dunlops (and later Todd Pletcher) classy mare Cassydora, a Goodwood Nassau Stakes Group 1 runner up, US Grade 2 winner and very consistent middle distance horse. Aiden O'Brien seems adamant that this horse will not be running on soft ground and therefore for me screams the type to excel at Epsom, because very rarely do we get a Derby with softish ground. It was easy to see why AOB is keeping him away from testing conditions when we saw him at Dundalk, undoubtedly the best mover I have seen from the Ballydoyle 3 year old team, Camelot aside, and that has to be worth noting. He skipped around Dundalk, had a lot of horses on the stretch at just half way, and stayed on pushed out to wheel away to a 10 length success. He didnt beat a lot, I know, but he had a fantastic crusing speed and settled beautifully at the head of affairs, something which impressed me as that ws just his first start. A Beautiful rhythm and clearly an engine to boot, becauser he stayed and quickened very easily over 11f that day and already we know this is a horse who will get the trip and his balance looked excellent, which is key for Epsom. He looked the part physically I felt and at least we know this looks a promising 3 year old specimen and we have seen him in the flesh this season, so is race-fit and lives up to his breeding in looking a really strong, talented 3 year old. I wonder if he has surprised AOB a little bit because he went off 5/2 that day and he seemed unsure about whether to trial him for the Derby, but I think the horse has forced him into it. I'm really hoping he can step up to the mark tomorrow because he really did impress me on debut and I thought then he looked an ideal type to head to a Dante trial so it would be excellent if he proves himself up to this class and throw his hat into the Epsom ring. As for the rest of the day: 2.00 Beatrice Aurores price shocked me a little bit because her reappearance over an inadequate trip at Newmarket was full of promise, making headway and keeping on for 3rd behind Questioning and Twice Over, which is a very solid bit of form for reappearance and Jon Dunlops horses almost always come on for a run. 10f is certainly a bit more up her street and she ought to be bang in the shakeup in what is actually a very good race. 9/1 in places for anyone who is looking to dabble. 3.00 Mijjhar is a Group horse running in listed company and the only slight concern is that this is over 1m. That said, the superb headway the horse made behind Nathaniel last season at Ascot suggested there was plenty of crusing speed and therefore I think this is an excellent opportunity on reappearance at a nice enough price given the horses talent. Cats might be able to give you a bit more info on this one as I know he rates the horse very highly. Those of you having a play, good luck to you. I'm just hoping I get a step closer in my quest to solve the Epsom Derby 2012 puzzle.
One for me that im already on is Cape Tribulation in the last at York. I got the 4/1 last night but looking at the betting its going to be shorter by tom morning, 7/2 now with PadPow... Cape Tribulation @ 4/1...
3.00 York Common Touch 14/1 NAP Although Mijhaar mite well be too good for this field, I'm definitely willing to take him on. Firstly, the step back to 1m may not suit and although he put in a cracking effort in a Group 2, he was last seen coming 2nd in a handicap off a 6lb lower mark so its certainly feasible that he may not have too much wiggle room off his mark of 102. Resultantly, I'm plumping for Richard Fahey's Common Touch who I think still has the profile of a horse that has not yet finished improving and who looks a very overpriced alternative at 14/1. With only 7 career starts to date, Common Touch has hardly done much wrong winning 3 times and finishing 2nd a further twice. After making a successful debut as a 2 year old, he was slightly disappointing on his 2nd and final 2 YO start in a handicap debut off a mark of 80 when finishing a 2L beaten 4th. Common Touch really excelled himself as a 3 year old and demonstrated how progressive an animal he was. On the back of a 7 month break, he ran a very good 0.5L beaten 2nd at Beverley off a mark of 80. In the 5 runner field, Common Touch broke well and pulled very hard early on as Paul Hanagan looked for a bit of cover. After about a furlong or so he got this cover and eventually went down narrowly in a tight finish. He lost absolutely nothing in defeat that day, especially given the winner Belle Royale has turned out to be a very progressive animal who rounded off his 3 year old campaign by winning 3 on the trot, the last impressively off a mark of 102 and the 3rd Kingscroft has also won off a 5lb higher mark. Risen 3lb for that effort, Common Touch returned to winning ways when landing a handicap at the course tomorrow over 7f by 1.25L. It was a very likeable effort and Common Touch saw out the trip very well and it was a tenacious and determined effort by Common Touch. Risen 5lb for this effort to a mark of 88, Common Touch demonstrated his progressive nature when running out a very impressive winner over the same C+D as his win 10 days earlier as he romped home by 3.25L. In the field of 14, he was settled towards the rear and he made some very good progress before pulling right away in the final 150 yards to score in eye catching fashion. That effort demonstrated that the step up to a mile would suit. After this, Common Touch was risen 9lb to a mark of 97 as he attempted to land the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot but you have to ignore that effort. There was a massive bias to the group that raced in high numbers and Common Touch was part of the group that were clearly racing on the slower part of the track. The slightly softer Good to Soft going may also not have been ideal but that is unclear and hopefully it doesn't rain tomorrow or does only very slightly. Common Touch had his final start last July where he put in a good display to finish a 0.75L beaten 2nd at Goodwood off a mark of 95 - the same mark he races off tomorrow. That day, he was ridden along from a fair way out which is unlike him and he only really got going late on over the 7f trip as he made up a lot of ground late on. On the basis of this effort and his impressive win over the same trip at York, I really think a mile will suit him. Nevertheless, that race was only 0.33 seconds slower than Strong Suit's Group 2 victory the day before (although ground was probably a bit drier for this race) and the form looks good too. The winner Webbow put in a very good 1L beaten 2nd behind the very talented Eton Rifles on his next start whilst the 3rd Smarty Socks has won since off a 2lb higher mark and has put in a very good performance off a mark of 102 as well. Tomorrow, Common Touch must overcome a 295 day absence if he wants to land this Listed handicap. However, he has a very good record fresh with his narrow 2nd behind the progressive Belle Royale coming on his seasonal reappearance and he also won on debut. He returns tomorrow to York where he has an outstanding record of 3 wins from 4 starts and he clearly absolutely loves it around here. Based on his progressive profile and his effort of the same handicap mark on his last start, I think Common Touch will be a horse rated in the 100s very soon. Freddy Tylicki takes the ride and was successful on his only previous effort on this now 4 year old. He's trainer Richard Fahey's apparent second string in the betting but that is of absolutely no concern to me. I think its also very interesting to note that one of the owners Nick Wrigley used to be the steward at the track and he obviously enjoys having winners here so this has probably been his aim for quite a while. The draw in stall 9 shouldn't be too much of an issue give he can sit off the pace and with both the horses and Richard Fahey's records at the track I'm very, very confident of a huge run from Common Touch tomorrow at a lovely price.
‎7.40 Gowran Park Phoebe Van Gelder 12/1 I think this relatively unexposed 5 year old looks a very big price and looks very well handicapped. Although I don't know much about trainer Hilary McLaughlin and her only winner came with this mare a year ago, she only has two horses in training and I'm willing to overlook this. Back as a 3 year old and after 3 runs which got her an initial handicap mark, Phoebe Van Gelder stayed in maidens and on her 5th career start she ran a very good 0.5L beaten 2nd at Fairyhouse over 6f back in September 2010. It was another tenacious effort as she sat just behind the pace and she really got going late on and she certainly shaped if 7f would be her ideal trip. She improved again after this when putting in a very good 2nd over tomorrow's C+D when finishing a 0.75L beaten 2nd with the front 2 drawing nearly 4L clear of the remainder. Once again, she battled all the way to the line and it was a very likeable effort. The form of that race is very strong with the winner now a 94 rated animal and the 3rd is now rated 74 and given her handicap mark today and her sole win to date I think her handicap mark of 61 now is very workable. Phoebe Van Gelder comes here on the back of 236 day break but she has a fantastic record fresh with her only win to date off a similar break last year off an 8lb higher mark of 69 so on that evidence she looks a very appealing prospect to me. I don't think I've ever seen a race finish have such a blanket finish with the first 12 home separated by less than 1.5L. She showed tremendous battling qualities that day and it was a really tenacious effort over the Curragh's 7f trip. Some of that form looks strong enough with a fair few of the horses that finished close up behind that day winning off the same or higher marks shortly afterwards. To be honest, I was rather surprised that she didn't progress in her further 5 starts last year as she had shown some very decent progressive form towards the end of her 3 year old career. However, she now appears very well handicapped. Given she likes to race prominently, the draw in stall 5 should be ideal whilst the ground shouldn't be any issue either. She's proven she acts on the track which is a big benefit for me and there are certainly a lot of things I like about her profile. Jockey Willy Lee takes the ride and has rode her for the majority of starts, including her win and 3 placed efforts so its clear the pair get on well together. If she's in the same form as her seasonal reappearance last year, I think she could put up a very bold showing and hopefully she can prove she is very well handicapped by landing this event at a decent price.
1.30 York Cocktail Charlie 20/1 Tim Easterby's 4 year old looks a very big price if you discount his reappearance run at Beverley on soft ground that probably didn't suit where he disappointed. Moreover, he should be sharper for that reappearance run. Although winless since his debut, Cocktail Charlie posted some very solid efforts during his 3 year old campaign last year most notably at a 1L beaten York 6f event off a mark of 92, a 2.75L defeat at Newmarket off a mark of 94 and 3 starts ago last August a 2L defeat off a mark of 90 in soft ground over 5f at Catterick. Tomorrow he races off a mark of 85 and looks rather well handicapped, especially on his narrow defeat off a 7lb higher mark in a race where the form looks very strong. If bouncing back to the form he showed last year Time Easterby's charge looks decently drawn in stall 11 and looks rather overpriced in a competitive little heat. 2.00 York Beatrice Aurore 9/1 Agree completely with Toppy about John Dunlop's 4 year old looking very overpriced at 9s. I too was rather taken with her reappearance behind Questionning and Twice Over and I certainly think she's going to come on a lot for that run. Twice Over is a Group 1 winning performer whilst Questionning has acquitted himself very well in his subsequent Group 2 and Group 3 races and if she was not fully wound up for her this 2L beaten 3rd I think she could be very hard to beat. Winner of a Group 3 in France in the summer and a narrow loser in a Group 1 over in Italy, she's clearly proven in Group Company and I think the step up an extra furlong will clearly help her chances. I also think her returning to face her own sex will definitely help her chances tomorrow as she looks to land her first Group 2. With John Dunlop in ok but not blistering form, Ryan Moore keeping the ride is a big bonus in what represents the trainer's only runner at a track where he has a tremendous 32% strike rate.
Keeping a filly in training as a 4yo is always a risk as sometimes they just don't train on but Set to Music has been pleasing everyone in her work at Michael Bell's and should run a big race today. She seemed not much as a 2yo, but had a run of 4 consecutive wins last year culminating in a sparkling effort in the Galtres Stakes at York last August. She had the race sown up 6 furlongs out and couldn't have been more impressive. By Danehill Dancer they surprisingly then sent her over the Leger trip when she finished a good second in the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster. It was probably a furlong or two too far. This filly is really well bred as her great great granddam is Petite Etoile, and she certainly trained on!! What has been surprising is the entries made for her in a number of Group 1 events including the Coronation Cup. If she flops totally today Spencer and Bell may have slightly red faces, and the Queen wishing that she'd sent her off to the paddocks. So I take her to beat Beatrice Aurore.
One for Salisbury, in the 2.10 Fillies Handicap that C4 are broadcasting this afternoon - COPLOW. She has always been well thought of and had been due to make her seasonal debut at the Craven Meeting. You can ignore her poor second run last year as she was later found to have a cut in her mouth.
Have done IZZI TOP BONFIRE MIJHAAR PEARL SECRET 4 trebles and a 4-fold Surely it can't be that easy.........................
My York going through the card selections: 1.30 Judge N' Jury 10/1 2 Beatrice Aurora 10/1 2.30 Fencing 7/1 3 Navajo Chief 8/1 3.35 Caledonia Lady 5/1 4.10 Star of Rohm 20/1 4.45 Bruslini 12/1
Just been looking at the videos of Bonfire at Salisbury and Saint-Cloud, and two things struck me. Firstly, he looks like will undoubtedly improve significantly for the step up to 1m2f; and secondly, he takes a little while to go through the gears, which caused him to get trapped in pockets in both races. This could be a significant disadvantage in the Derby, but a small field at York looks absolutely made for him. Providing they go a good gallop I can see himm unwinding down that long straight and eventually pulling clear of quicker types like Fencing and Mandean. I think 5/2 is a very fair price given the form of the stable, and the rather bullish vibes emanating therefrom. I'm also thinking that these Highclere animals do tend to get punted, so there may well be an opportunity to lay some of that off later on today. In the 2.00, Timepiece has plenty of excuses for her modest showing at Newmarket, gets in without a Gp1 penalty, and appears massively overpriced at 7/1.
Didnt get to see the racing yesterday so was "pleasing" to see the money I lost on Flag Officer was down to the horse being lame and not the jockey! I have always been a fan of Frankie and those boys in blue, though lost a packet going against his last 4 rides on "magnificent 7" day but of late I am feeling he is a spent force and unless his horse has pounds in hand he is a defo lay-bet! Anyone got any views? As for bets today 1st 3 favs singles and a treble! Leave form studying to the others and through a few quid at their hard work!
Woohoo!! This website has come up unblocked for the first time in over a year. Could block again at any second mind. Looks easy today innit. Tho all with different selections.... I like Hazelriggs 1.30 20-1, think both the easterby's, this and cocktail charlie, have decent chances at decent odds. Also be looking to do a small stakes (obviously) trifecta low draws here hoping that people think there's a high draw bias. 2.00 sea of heartbreak 16-1 seems to be overpriced in this tight contest, roger charlton always sems to get the best out of his horses and this one's form is very similar to those at the head. 4.45 bruslini 12-1 g lee, b ellison, ran well over hurdles this year, not seen on the flat for a while. Quids in. Long may my IT remain shoddy!!
I will start by saying how delighted I am to see one of my favourite horses in training lining up in the 1st at York. I won't be playing but it's safe to say I really want Racy to win this one. 5 is definately his trip and I think he was unlucky not to win a big handicap last year. He kept running well, placing and then creeping up the weights. I fear it might be a similar story today I am not waving the no bet banner today though.... I rarely get anything come through in the way of info but one horse who I know has been Impressing, and I've borrowed a capital I off of SBC, is the Queens Set To Music who is a stonking price today at 13/2. The yard really think this one has improved I am told and expect her to be there or thereabouts. I probably should be playing to win but you never really know and I think 13/2 is generous enough to warrant an e/w bet with 3 places paid. This is the one I'm getting stuck into.
Geez I like the look of Ernest Hemingway. He's a big, rangy colt who will probably want the 12f of the Derby more than the 10f today. He's a very nice price though.
Ive has a look at the York card today and like yesterday i think its very tricky... Anyway... 1.30 - Ancient Cross, 12/1 2.00 - Beatrice Aurore, 9/1 - im not the only one on here who likes his chances... 2.30 - Bonfire, 9/4 3.00 - Mijhaar, 5/2 3.35 - Pearl Secret, 8/11 4.10 - Star Of Rohm, 16/1 4.45 - Cape Tribulation, 4/1 Had a bet on Cape Trib already but nowt on the others... yet... A few at Perth that i fancy more... Good luck if you do play today...
Hmm, seems all the writing has been done. On one horse today and that is Ernest Hemingway at 4/1 in the Dante, this horse is highly regarded in Ireland and is one that Ballydoyle have thought could be a potential Derby winner in the making, we'll no more after today. Think the 4's has to be backed and expect a very big run from him as he travels very well and should really appreciate conditions at York today.
