Was looking at Born to Sea (continuing the awful nomenclature for this branch of the family owned by the Tsui's) and looking at the +'s amd -'s Obviously beautifully bred and with just about the best trainer around imo.He is very well thought of having debuted in a listed race over 6f.He won nicely after looking in trouble a furlong out but the form is possibly suspect.The second is a four time raced maiden who was beaten again after this run.The third was unplaced in a h'cap NTO before finishing nearly last in a listed event. On BTS's second start he was brushed aside by the subsequently exposed Nephrite over 7f before being declared lame some time after the race.The muscle tear undoubtedly affected his performance,but by how much?..who knows. The ground is also cited as a concern by the JO yard. He does appeal on many counts and ticks a lot of boxes but there are also too many unknowns for me to back him. I'm not having a wager in this...who needs to a bet to enjoy a Classic!
Layed him for a place at 1.69, on the grounds he either hacks up or blows out completely. If he's not picking up out of the ground then I think the O'Brien pup will be under orders to go easy, as there are bigger targets later in the year and they won't want to bottom out a potential Derby/King George/Arc horse in a bog in early May. That's the theory anyway.
Like TopClass I'm keen on Fiorente. His best run last year was on fairly soft ground in the King Edward VII Stakes when second to the King George winner. He's lightly raced and if you believe the gallop reports he's wintered well and has looked impressive. On breeding he should get 12f as he's by Monsun out of a grand-daughter of Hellenic, Desert Bloom (who's by Pilsudski). My only concern, and it's a slight one is that he might be better at 10f and that in a real slog he might not get home. That's based on his last run in the Gordon Stakes when he was worried out of it by a Johnson runner. But I'm hoping that was just the run of an immature and slightly weak animal who will come into his own this year. He looked good at RA and a bull of a horse when winning his maiden at Newbury. Today is hopefully a stepping stone to Group 1 races.
On Fiorente, isn't he a dreadful price for what he has got in the book? He is open to improvement and could win, but he shouldn't be this short today.
I think it could pay to go with the French horses today and Abtaal appears to be the one they fancy. The favourite's breeding suggests he should not mind the ground but be prepared for AOB using that as an excuse if he gets beaten, despite asserting a couple of days that it would not be a problem for the horse. Listening to AOB contradict himself over and over again is always a highlight of the flat season for me.
Not had time to post this week so hello to everyone. I've backed Born To Sea because Oxx doesn't mess around withbEnglish Classics unless he's got a great chance. 9/1 each way. Already had a few quid on Power as a saver and Hermival at a big price. Can't see Meandre losing and 9/4 looks like a gift. I've been given Temple Meads from my mate's normal source so backed him each way at 14/1. Backed the Honeyball runner at Donny last night as well and it looks like Stick's heard what I've heard. 8.30 Jivry.
It's his ability to talk without saying anything that causes me to take my hat off to him. Watch out for "we think the world of him, and he's ready for his first run" to make it's seasonal debut. You usually know when the money's down though. Don't think it will be today.
The only bet of the day for me is in the 2000 Guineas. I have made my feelings known about this race in the 2000 Guineas thread. However I would implore anyone playing in the 3.30 at Goodwood to have a decent look at No Heretic. 3rd to Fury as a 2y-o and 2nd to Fiorente last year, at one stage he was added to the Derby. Not seen since May last year and a first run for David Simcock but I just think that racing off of 83 he could make 9/2 look very silly.
For what its worth for today from me im leaning towards Abtaal... Plus its a day of please win so i get the night off, or its going to be a late one for me... Liverpool win today, my boss has kindly let me have the night off...!!! Lose and i have tonights work and a 4.30 pick up from Manchester airport... Oh joy...!!! Either way its going to be a long, long day...!!! Good luck to all having a play today... Hope Liverpool can win today, as i dont carry much hope, have a good one all...
Morning All - great day of sport ahead - Newmarket then my team in the cup final v the Chavs !!!!! Time that useless £35m lump called Carroll started to pay back some of the transfer money me thinks. Wonder what the fiddler O'Brien will say if Camelot gets beat ??? "He's a nice horse he ran a good race - he will ready for the Derby as I send out my 95th horse in 10 years to try and win the big race" haha - as you can see I can't stomach the fiddling git !!!
Morning chaps what a day - Guineas , FA cup final, KT Derby and top notch boxing. Great sport Nass it is a big step up for Fiorente running against Group 1 winners here but I will be backing him still
DAYO - just rewatched his Guineas romp from last year, awesome. I'm so looking forward to him racing again
