No way I would take yesterday's race at face value. How often have we seen ground like that this season? Good luck with the antepost punts but not for me.
I've watched the race several times and certainly Somersby was chasing all the way to the line, Dominic Elsworth obviously keen to secure second place. Somersby on soft at Sandown is not an unknown - remember him bounding up the hill to win the Henry VIII as a novice? That was actually his only other run at the Esher track. It's interesting that they left the "equipment" off this time - no cheek pieces, no tongue strap - and they may have been detrimental to his efforts. I think the race may have been decided by the fast early pace set by Sanctuaire - he burnt them off with his early speed and accurate jumping and they were never in a position to land a blow. Of course pace and tactics play their part but, as Zen mentions, when the others tried to close they couldn't. It's a fascinating end to the novice chase season and, to be honest, it's rather immaterial which horse is crowned champion novice. What really matters is that both make it to Cheltenham next season and give us a race to cherish
To those doubting the form (and I admit that I have doubts myself, largely because things that look too good to be true usually are): Would you rather back Sprinter Sacre at 5/4 or Sanctuaire at 12/1? Neither is not an option. Those prices suggest it will be a formality for Sprinter Sacre but I don't think that is the case at all.
Have you seen Ladbrokes book on the race: Evs Sprinter Sacre 3/1 Finians Rainbow 4/1 Sizing Europe 6/1 Sanctuaire Laughable
Sanctuaire is clearly a talented horse, but mentioning him as a potential 'threat' to Sprinter Sacre, is somewhat ridiculous. I hope the handicapper uses some intelligence for a change in this situation, having given ridiculous ratings out to other Nicholls horse's in the past, Master Minded 186, and Kauto Star 193, are 2 occasions that spring to mind.* Yesterdays race was on soft ground, and he was racing against horse's that have been on the go all season long, and the Sandown race wouldn't of been there main target. Where as Nicholls has campaigned Sanctuaire with that race in mind.* As for backing Sanctuaire for next years CC, it doesn't look a bad bet at 12s, I know he's not going to beat Sprinter Sacre, but a year is a long time, Sprinter Sacre could get injured or anything, and even if SS does show up fit and well, then id fancy Sanctuaire to still pick up the place money
The overround on just those 4 is already 109%, and that's almost a year before the race. Surely if they are going to take a strong stance on Sanctuaire by offering only 6s, then they have to lengthen some of the others
Sanctuaire, when he wants to race, is a serious 2 mile chaser judged on what we have seen. The crucial thing is the accuracy of his jumping, much like Sprinter Sacre. They both absolutely bound over the fences and because they dont make mistakes, it is difficult for the rest to land a blow. I hope they can keep Sanctuaires head straight because I think it would be a joy to see both he and Sprinter Sacre going at it from the front. Sprinter Sacre strikes me as a horse who has more stamina overall and is the one running within himself, so I think he would prevail. His superior hurdle form would confirm he has a bit more left in the engine department but he'd be asked some good questions by Sanctuaire in that form. Scintilating, the pair of them, so far over fences. Long way away though so worry about that in 10 months time.
**** really? I thought SS's Supreme Novice 3rd would have ranked higher but you're right, it doesnt! I just thought that the Supreme Novice form was really strong last season.
Zen,I like your 66/1 voucher,very exciting...12/1?,no chance that is value. Sanctuaire was very impressive yesterday but I really don't like him for the CC and place no value on the form ot the Celebration Chase. He lacks the scope of SS,has a poor win to run ratio,looks one dimensional re tactics and reminds me of a fragile piece of porcelain waiting to be dropped. Re novice ratings they are transient,more subjective than others and completely and utterly irrelevant...like measuring a teenager before he's stopped growing.Futile exercise and of little value tbh. We had this debate about PC if I'm not mistaken during his novice chasing disaster and the laugable rating he was attributed after a couple of canters. There is nothing as exciting as a bold jumping front running 2m chaser..(anybody remember I'm a Driver?) but Sanctuaire may be found wanting. Just my opinion.
Sanctuaire is clearly a good horse but i would not add to my view of him on account of his win on Saturday as i would suggest that no race on that card is worth much in the form book due to ground that was nearing unraceable. I would take even less notice of the flat races incidently as i doubt any of those horses will ever run on ground that soft again in their career. All it told us was which horses can handle it that soft. I remember Irish Derby/ Oaks day at the Curragh about 3 seasons ago and Saskia and the A 0'B horse who won the Irish Derby looked as impressive as you could get but the form was worth very little on account of it being beyond heavy and whilst both were very good horses they never looked like that again. I think it's always wise to write off extreme going results unless that same going is encountered again. I presonally think Sandown would have abandoned if that were an ordinairy meeting.
To be fair Sanctuaire's previous victory at Sandown on Good was equally breathtaking (although he probably didn't beat much). Also the official going on Saturday was Soft, Good-Soft in places. Is that really what we would call "bottomless"? I'd agree the flat track was pretty ropey but the back straight (where the race was effectively won) looked decent jumping ground.
I would say that for Sandown to have the word Good in any of their going descriptions on Saturday was a scandal. The way horses of both codes were finishing and the colour of their silks showed a different story. Sanctuaire is undoubtedly a very good horse however even with Saturday's race aside.
Timeform have had a go - http://betting.betfair.com/horse-ra...ont-get-swept-away-by-the-tide-300412-58.html Sprinter Sacre - 175p (p = the horse is likely to improve) Sanctuaire - 169+ (+ = the horse may be better than rated) To give that some sort of perspective Finian's Rainbow is on 174 and Sizing Europe on 172. They have Somersby running to a stone below his Victor Chandler performance. Dave Edwards of Topspeed has given Sanctuaire a rating 29lbs superior to Sizing Europe's effort over course and distance in the Tingle Creek. Official ratings to come tomorrow.
Love the assessment Zen, although I can't be convinced by it. I've been a Sacrefan since before last year's Chelt, and as I tend to invest emotionally in a horse as well as financially, it wouldn't feel right to go against him now! Not logical I know, but we can't all be cold calculating punters I fancied Sanctuaire to win on Saturday and backed him at 6-1 with SJ on Friday night, but I was gobsmacked by the performance, and whatever you atribute it too, and detract from because of circumstances, you can't deny the assertiveness and ease with which he won. 12-1 ew is a good bet imo, although for reasons stated above, it's not for me
The question that intrigues me about last Saturday's victory by Sanctuaire is " what effect one bad jump would have had upon him?" In fairness, he jumped magnificently, although his two 'balloon jumps' made me wonder if he would land on top of the fence; yet no, he didn't, and therefore his jumping and aggressive tactics destroyed the opposition. In the past, his hurdles form has been inconsistent, to say the least. But that's hurdles, and we must forget that and judge him on his steeplechasing efforts. For me, Sprinter Sacre has far more 'scope ' as a chaser, but not let's forget that both of them are novices and it's easy to go overboard about either of them at this stage. One thing's pretty certain... S. Sacre would have had his hands full on Saturday against Sanctuaire. Cheltenham will no doubt be a different matter, and Sanctuaire will need to add resolution and maintain a high level of fencing, if he hopes to progress to the top. It certainly provides excitement in looking forward to next year.
Their physical comparisons are most interesting. Both are incredibly athletic but in completely different ways. Sprinter Sacre is a big powerful horse whereas Sanctuaire is much smaller. And yet their mental attributes, certainly their keenness and boldness, are similar. Sanctuaire's temperament obviously has a more sinister side to it as well but that phase appears to be behind him over fences. I doubt Sanctuaire has the raw scope of Sprinter Sacre but his jump at the 2nd fence, an open ditch, was something to behold. If he was able to clear that then I find it hard to believe he will struggle in that department. Another thing I read (on the Betfair Forum so it might be a load of tosh): "Sanctuaire has been given a Raceform time figure of 125 which is absolutely huge, 20 lengths faster than the Arkle where SS got his best so far of 115. I cannot remember any novice chaser getting that high a rating before! Most champion chasers never run that fast... It is only one interpretation but one well worth taking into account." I know nothing of Raceform time figures (for example why is 125 20 lengths better than 115?!). Anybody else know more?
