Grand National Pointers?

Petito, I wouldn't worry about Sea Bass' stamina. His sire, Turtle Island, was only a miler but there's stacks of stamina on his dam's side and he's by Northern Dancer on both sides of his pedigree. He's won up to three miles and, like his sire, he'll love heavy ground.
He ran off 144 yesterday- and was only low 90's two years ago- so that's a measure of his improvement. I found it very impressive that he won over two miles yesterday, especially after poor jumps at the last two fences. If you saw the race, he stayed on like a lion!
I'd be more concerned whether he'd get round at Aintree and his trainer, Ted Walsh, thinks Ruby will ride one of Mullins' horses. It'll be interesting to see what Ruby does choose to ride but, if he did opt for Sea Bass, he'd no doubt be near favourite.
Certainly an interesting contender.

 

Classy man is Graham Wylie - I met him (albeit very briefly) before the 2005 RSA Hurdle/Neptune or whatever it was called that year (2m 5f novice hurdle !) taking refuge in a hospitality marquee when it was hosing down with rain and he was a very polite and down to earth man, I might be wrong but I think Graham Lee won the leading jock that year and all 3 wins were Wylie's.

 

thanks for the info tamerlo. i did see the race and i had picked him but i haven't got around to watching it again to have a closer look at the finish to see if 4m+ is a real possibility. best wait till after chelts now because they've only scratched a handful of the runners and there's a limit to how much work i make for myself. cheers though, noted. sorry, i can only find a bunch of irrelevant smileys and not the thumbs up i wanted so you got the badger.

 

Cracking trial by Junior yesterday. Would have won if wasn't hampered at the last.

 

I don't think he is a solid enough jumper of his fences though, he seems a little untidy to me and I would worry about him getting around. Shame that they are not aiming him at the festival instead.

 

Has anyone noticed the times of the races at Newbury yesterday, in particular Niche Market carrying 11.12. Interesting that Ruby was riding him. He has 10.5 in the GN (8lb less than last year when he weakened approaching the elbow to finish 21l behind Ballabriggs who was giving him 1lb. This year Ballabriggs has to give him 18lb.

He is 11 now but running such a fast time with 21lb more on his back could indicate he is not in decline.

Any views?

 

Very fast ground at Newbury for the last two meetings, hence the times being fast. I think he is one to be against in the National, no reason for him to improve to beat those who beat him at the GN last time, he isn't improving in my mind.

 

All the other times on the day were slow though Nass.

 

Ron, the other races were run at steady pace, the Veterans went fast (cost Hello Bud his chance) and one thing to note - "The rails on both courses were moved into provide fresh ground."

 

Also heavy rain before the third race.

 

Thanks Nass. I've cancelled my loan request.

 

I will lend you a quid to put on it if you wish.

 

Not sure Niche Market fully stays either.

However, I'd be against Junior in the National. He 'hurdles' his fences a little too much for my liking. He might adjust to the bigger fences but I wouldn't want to be taking the chance at the price.

 

I actually think we may have seen the old Grand National winner for 2012 out on Saturday. Namely Mr Nicholls Niche Market. Was really impressed by both his attitude and performance under a welter burden at Newbury. Was a first class prep for the GN in my humble opinion. Plus he has already proved his liking for the course having jumped round on his last 2 attempts over the fences and looks to have a nice impost this time around. Consequently, 25/1 looks far to big to my eye. My only slight negative is that I fear that Daryl Jacob may end up riding him.

Re the Donny race Alan King’s representative at the course (I think it was his assistant trainer but not 100% about that) said in the local media yesterday that West End Rocker was withdrawn as the ground on the chase course was ‘like a road’ and it would benefit no horse from having run on it. He seemed really upset that West End Rocker had been denied a chance to run due to the lack of rain as they really wanted to get a run into him ahead of Aintree and now it looks as if they have no alternative option and will go to the GN without an opportunity to have ‘freshened up’ West End Rocker.

One other point re the current GN market. Mr Henderson’s Quantititveeasing is currently 50/1. But this is only because he hasn’t yet qualified for the race (will do if he finishes in the first 4 of the 3 mile handicap chase on day 1 of Cheltenham). A wager on him, at the moment, is very similar to the one on Barbers Shop a couple of weeks ago in that it is 2 staged (1 him qualifying for Aintree and 2 him winning the GN). Should he qualify and Mr Henderson subsequently give the OK for the big ‘un he’d be at best a 14/1 shot for the race.

 

Have to agree with Sir Barney on both counts there - I quite like the look of both, and have thus invested in a small way in both (just took a little of the 170.0 available on Quantitativeeasing on betfair. Could be silly, but if he places at Cheltenham the trade out will be satisfying).

 

One was a egg and spoon race whilst the other is a big handicap at the festival. Very different issues for the two horses.

 

Sadly Niche Market is out!

My 2 early ones for this race are one with the required national jumps experience and from a trainer whom I would love to win it and cap an excellent season after his winners at the festival:

Killyglen 33s ew was going very well last year until coming down 5 out and could be the one.

My 2nd selection is According to Pete who will without doubt stay and jumps very well but has never taken on these big fences. A nice price at 40s was accepted EW

 

One significant stat re the old GN is that since 1961 just 1, I say 1, Cheltenham Festival winner has in the same season gone on to win the big ‘un at Aintree (a bonus point for anyone who can name who the horse was, incidentally).

This ‘trend’ hardly inspires confidence for Synchronised or indeed the Sunnyhillboy.