Assessing the Hurricane

Hurricane Fly is still the one to beat at this stage.

 

Shergs, good point! Connections obviously believed that, after last year and seeing HF at Leopardstown, Oscar had no chance of beating Hurricane Fly. Therefore avoid him at all costs!
It's understandable logic but tragically flawed! They hadn't thought it through. I'd liken their decision to the following joke:

A fat man called Oscar saw a sign outside a shop which said .... " 100% guaranteed to lose weight or money back. Two choices :
1. Choose Room 1 and meet a beautiful girl called Hurricane. Though you're unlikely to catch her, you'll lose at least seven pounds.
2. Choose Room 2, pay more, and meet the 'Big Experience.' You'll lose at least three stones.

In 2011, he chose Room 1. Inside was a round table, some bathroom scales- and beautiful Hurricane, stripped naked. "Chase me round the table, catch me, and you'll be the champion- and you can have anything you want. I warn you. I'm quick. Start running."
Oscar, noticeably 'perky,' chased her round and round but only got within 5 lengths . Knackered and frustrated, he stopped and stood on the scales. Sure enough, he'd lost seven pounds.

In 2012, he went back; paid the higher fee; and chose Room 2. He entered the room, stripped off his clothes and 'perked up' in anticipation. He then saw a smaller round table- but no scales.
Sadly, he'd never really considered what the 'Big Experience' was.
All of a sudden, a door opened and a seven foot black man entered, hugely and horizontally endowed.
He turned to Oscar and said, smiling and lusting......
" Hi dare! I'm Big Bucks. Start running!"

Moral of the story...Give yourself a chance. Better to face a hurricane again than be 'bucked.'

 

Very amusing Tam! I do hope your right as I'm on Big Bucks massive today

 

Shame for connections as surely the horse did not turn up! Maybe he was flattered in last years race with the demise of Oscar and Peddlers? Who knows, they won a nice race with him so sure they are happy

Zarkandar is the one to take out of the race along with ROR. Did we see the 2013 Gold Cup winner in Sir des Champs? I think so

 

Do me a favour, Sir Des Champs beat absolutely nothing today. Bob's Worth would have crushed him in the RSA

 

ROFL time will tell, Bobs Worth is an awesome prospect too We are in for fireworks next season that's for sure.

 

Sir Des Champs has tonnes left in reserve though Shergar, he just stays and stays so don't underestimate him. He'd have relished the 3 miles and he'd give Bobs Worth a race. Bobs Worth does not look a Gold Cup horse in my eyes but he is very good. Only time will tell though and I'd hold fire on any antepost bets for next year.

 

Well why wasn't he in the RSA?

Connections obviously rated First Lieutenant higher, that's why he ran in the proper race and Sir Des Champs was in the egg and spoon race. Sir Des Champs beat very little today, Champion Court is half decent but he isn't a Group 1 chaser, and never will be.

The quotes of 10/1 for next years Gold Cup are plain ridiculous, and I remain confident that both First Lieutenant, and Bob's Worth are superior horse's

 

Hello all. I hope you had a successful, and most importantly enjoyable Festival.

As the dust settles, I am just starting to catch up with what's been going on here whilst I've been away.

This thread is particularly interesting because of something I read in the build-up to the Festival. It worried me, enough to make me doubt and question, but ultimately not enough to change my mind. I wish I had. In hindsight it makes such perfect sense.

http://www.ohracing.net/forum/f407/champion-hurdle-74987/index2.html#post471957

You really should read it.

 

He wasnt in the RSA because Michael O'Leary had no horse in the Jewson. Willy Mullins said he was an RSA horse in his opinion and after the Jewson made it clear he would, all being well, be campaigned with the idea of a Gold Cup in mind.

You are quite right that the quotes are silly, but I'm happy to disagree on this one and say he is a bloody awesome prospect. The one Irish horse who is versatile ground wise, has a cruising speed and also stays very strongly when asked to pick up. A proper chasing type and crucially looks to have more to come. Nice profile and he has been brought along gradually.

Im looking forward to seeing the novices start a new generation after Kauto.

 

That looks a hugely relevant analysis in hindsight.

They just seemed to gallop the nuts off Hurricane Fly. Having said that, he is a winner over 2 and a half miles and I always thought Ruby said he could both outsprint and outstay them. The track didnt seem to suit either, he struggled up the hill this time I felt.

Im also convinced he needs cut and would be hard pressed to back against him when he gets his toe in.

 

Interesting. This person is basically saying what I said, except more scientifically and, more importantly, before the race.

 

In hindsight, I think the analysis is absolutely spot on. You either take that view, or that Hurricane Fly was below par for whatever reason. I wouldn't be backing him to regain his title as a 9yo at this stage however. I wouldn't rule him out but I would suspect that there will be new challengers in 12 months time.

It's not so much a trip/stamina concern, it is just Hurricane Fly's ability to sustain a finishing kick. Last year of a steadier pace he could quicken to get to Peddlers Cross and then just keep on. This year he couldn't get to them with his initial kick, so had nothing for the final climb.

In many ways he looks the exact opposite to Zarkandar. In my mind he was the horse to take out of the race. Why Daryl Jacob rode him like he did is beyond me. This is a horse that stays really really well, can maintain a flat out gallop, takes time to hit top gear, but when he does can really fly. Instead of bouncing him off handy so that when the flat spot came he had the ground in the bank to prevent him losing the race, Jacob sat towards the rear with the speed horses. Inevitably, when they quickened, he couldn't go with them, but boy was he finishing like a train at the death. The ground he makes up from the last flight is nothing short of remarkable. I would have liked to see him jumped out handy, sit level with Rock On Ruby in the leading group, and then kicked for home at the top of the hill. I suspect that he was one of the worst affected by the Ditcheat cough, especially after racing when suffering from it. With another year on his back and a smoother preparation I still think he could go well in a Champion. The problem is that he would need things to fall his way because a flat out gallop must be essential.

At the time I thought that both Ruby and AP had given their mounts too much to do but having just watched the replay again I don't think either did too much wrong. If their horses were good enough they were in the right place. Hurricane Fly was close up coming down the hill but never looked like getting on terms with the winner.

 

The other thing to bear in mind is that Rock On Ruby could be being underestimated here. I had him down as a solid type, sure to run his race, but sure to find a couple too good. I was wrong and having seen the race again he was a very good winner. He never seemed outpaced, his jumping was slicker than it had been, and he stormed up the hill.

I suppose, like many, the race has something of an unsatisfactory cloud over it. The result, and which horses finished where does seem puzzling. Don't forget the winner though.

 

It's all about opinion but having supported Bobs Worth, First Lieutenant and SDC I am very firmly of the opinion that SDC will be the best of the lot and certainly have more chance of winning a Gol Cup, next year may however come a tad too quick but he was deffo worth taking the 12s for. Connections and the majority of worthwhile pundits were all very taken with the young horse before he ran let alone after his majestic jumping display!

Mr Mullins has always stated that the further the horse went the better he will be and as for the question why did he not run in the RSA, well that was purely down to the owner and IMO could well be a blessing in disguise as that race has bottomed more good horses than it has made!!

 

2 words for you all re the Gigginstown Horses




Weapon's Amnesty

 

wow. very interesting indeed.

 

I hope I'm wrong but I will be absolutely amazed if we see him on a racecourse again, let alone in a Gold Cup. I don't know the ins and outs but it is a rare thing for a horse to be able to come back from two tendon injuries.