Cheltenham Day Two thread

1.30
For some time now I have been sitting on a voucher with UNIVERSAL SOLDIER’s name on it. He is a classy horse with very few miles on the clock. Charlie Longsdon is confident that he will stay and he is still open to improvement at the trip. Harry The Viking is an obvious danger and both Teaforthree and Soll will not be far away.
2.05
Simonsig has done nothing wrong and is a worthy favourite but I think the Irish may turn out to have a very strong hand in this. Sous Les Cieux has obvious credentials but one I think is on a sharp upward curve is MONKSLAND and I think he is the value in the race.
2.40
The RSA is all about GRAND CRUS and Bobs Worth. Pipe’s horse has for me by far the best profile and he is a confident selection.
3.20
The only opposition to SIZING EUROPE evaporated when Somersby declared for the Ryanair. His demolition of Big Zeb last month was stunning and I think he will win cosily here.
4.00
This is all about the trip regarding Balgarry. If he stays he wins for me as he is probably a good ten pounds better than his rating. However he is not certain to get the trip and may just get caught out by the stiff finish. One I really like is Featherbed Lane and I think Pip Hobbs has done a very sensible thing in having a claimer ride him, he is a classy animal and in with a real chance. Abergaveny is another who comes into my reckoning. Has improved in leaps and bounds this season and run well in very good company but my tentative selection is CAPE DUTCH who is still open to any amount of improvement. Jack Quinlan takes a handy five pounds off and it would be fitting for him to have a winner on one of the stables slightly lesser stars this week.
4.40
Veiled will rightly go off favourite and is possibly the best handicapped horse of the week. Very little value however so I prefer to look elsewhere and his biggest danger could be his nearest neighbour in the form of ARDLUI. He carries less weight than his stablemate and arguably has the more scope. At 25-1 he is certainly a decent price and the better value of the two. Another 25-1 shot that I must have a saver on is Jackies Solitaire. I really like this filly as she is all guts, just the thing you need in a competitive Festival handicap. She has snuck in on a very low weight and whilst not the strongest Rachel Green does get on well with her. I will be amazed if she isn’t somewhere in the firing line turning for home.

5.15
Having backed Champagne Fever at 20-1 I have to say that I don’t fancy him one bit! If he wins I will be delighted but I honestly see better chances with the home team having a strong hand with New Years Eve, Royal Guardsman and Sir Johnson who has been “kept” for this. The Irish have their usual strong team headed by Moscow Mannon and Jezki. If it had come up soft Clonbanan Lad would have been the easy pick but it isn’t so in one of the least inspiring Festival bumpers I have seen my pick is VILLAGE VIC. Touched off by Shutthefrontdoor last time many will think that Horatio Hornblower will improve past him but the Hobbs team are in better form now and I think conditions will suit him perfectly.


Best of luck everyone

 

Once again - on the blog http://nassauboard.blogspot.com/

1.30 NH Chase - Four Commanders 14/1 EW


2.05 Neptune Novice Hurdle - Secret Edge 50/1 EW


2.40 RSA Chase - Bob's Worth 4/1



3.20 QMCC - Wishfull Thinking 20/1 EW



4.00 Coral Cup - Poole Master 14/1 EW



4.40 Fred Winter - Khazlian 9/1 Vendor 4/1



5.15 Champion Bumper - New Year's Eve 6/1



My nap is Bobs Worth

 

1.30 Alle Garde 6/1 Win
2.05 Simonsig 9/4 Win
2.40 Grand Crus SP Win
3.20 Wishful Thinking 14/1 EW
4.00 Megastar 20/1 EW (NAP)
5.15 Village Vic 14/1 EW

 

from what i heard stick, longsden is real sweet on Universal Soldier tomorrow, in the bumper Royal Guardsman and Sir Johnson both laid out for this but a mate of mine got a text off a connection of Pique Sous saying the horse travelled over well, is very relaxed, had a nice canter yesterday and get your money on.. If only it was that easy..lol..gl

 

Evening All - Huddlejonny I got shown exactly the same text as your's by a mate at work !!!

 

Monksland is the nap tomorrow. He rates a huge threat to all Neptune runners if he reproduces his run last time out against Lyreen Legend. big each way plunge for me at 11/2.

I've got fancy prices about First Lieutenant and Grands Crus which I'm happy to leave as is. The RSA is a tough race imho but I think I'm on the winner with those two.

I backed Cool George at 50/1 and again this morning at 33/1 for the bumper. it's a wide open race and I'd rather take a chance at massive prices than back something around 10/1 with an equal chance as my lad.

I liked Allee Garde in the opener until the poor form of the Mullins team today put me off all his runners until I see improvement. I genuinely couldn't believe The Fly's run today but the Supreme crop ran worse so I think something is a miss.

I like Kazlian in the Fred Winter and Balgarry in the Coral Cup. Both each way shouts.

 

1.30 Harry The Viking/Soll
2.05 Cotton Mill e/w/Simonsig
2.40 Call The Police e/w
3.20 Sizing Europe
4.00 Carlito Brigante e/w
4.40 Vendor
5.15 New Years Eve/Pique Sous e/w

Good luck all

 

I've been toying with the idea of having a few quid each way on Beneficient at 20/1.

the form of his grade 1 win last time has been franked by Lord Windermere last weekend. Sous Les Cieux is 6/1 whereas this one is 20's and I'm struggling to see why.

The connections would be brilliant in the winners enclosure.

 

Two big bets for me tmz Sous Les Cieux and Balgarry a lot more confident than today's bets . Best of luck all . BTW Stick sorry couldn't reply to email earlier. I DID NOT back him gutted, knew he had a big race in him from that mark

 

1.30 Teaforthree.
I like both him and Harry Viking. Both are very consistent and stoutly bred, but Teaforthree's jockey, MacNamara, may just swing it.

2.05. Simonsig is classy and could win but is poor value at 9/4. His form lines against Fingal Bay are unproven against what may be better Irish stayers. From the Mullins' horses, I prefer Make Your Mark- I think the drying ground will help him after running well against Boston Bob.
However, Monksland could be the one here, even though I've a slight doubt about his resolution. He looks to have stacks of promise.

2.40. I've backed Join Together at twice his price, so I won't desert him now, even against Grands Crus. Both of them will stay, but this is a race of attrition- and anything can happen.

3.20. Sizing Europe loves Cheltenham, but when you examine his form this year, Kauto stone and Big Zeb haven't exactly enhanced it.
Finian's Rainbow will make a bold bid, but I'm going to have a decent 'interest' each way in Irish contender, Realt Dubh. He beat the useful Noble Prince twice- before running a good third behind Captain Chris in The Arkle. He then improved by slamming Loosen My Load and narrowly losing to Captain Chris at the Punchestown Festival.
If he's improved further from last year, his form makes a mockery of his price, and he could easily cause a surprise.
Recommended: Realt Dubh (25/1 Ladbrokes) Worth a good each way bet- he might win!

4.00.Back over hurdles, the talented Spirit River may run very well - and Get Me Out Of Here's unlucky bump in the Tote Trophy cost me dear. Yet, for me , the two against the field at the weights are Balgarry and Dare Me.
Dare Me has been coming back to form and his third behind Sire De Grugy(getting only 6lbs) reads very well after the latter's great race under a big weight in the Imperial Cup.
However, Balgarry just could be a blot on the handicap, and I'd advise backers to lump on the 8/1 currently available- with a saver on Dare Me at 14/1.

4.40. I honestly haven't got a clue in this race, but I'll choose Royal Bonsai- who's been running well.

5.15 The same applies to this Bumper, but it must be significant that Barry Geraghty came over from Ireland last week solely to ride work for John Ferguson on New Year's Eve.

 

Stick I owe you a bevy my friend.

Only win of the meeting was my double Sprinter Sacre and your fancy Kentford Grey Lady.

Ran a blinder as you said and there's no shame to running Quevega that close! I did it without Quevega obviously.

100 quid.

Thanks again, great tip. Wish it would have won for you mate.

I suppose I should mention that Billie Magern was the only one that let me down for my placepot (did two) but it only paid 72 quid anyway so it's all good.

Oh yeah, Hurricane Fly was a disgrace. ****house horse but I'll definitely back it next time out as I was told it sweat like a pig before the race. That right?

 

Here's my selections for the day

2.05

MONKSLAND 11/2

I'm quite sweet on the chances of Noel Meade's 5 year old who has won on his 3 starts to date. On his 3rd and final start, Monksland fulfilled the promise connections knew he possessed when a very impressive winner on heavy ground when scooting clear of the field at ease in a Grade 2. The form of that race looks very strong with the 2nd Lyreen Legend winning a Grade 2 himself impressively in the interim period and I think this horse may be a little bit special. His trainer Noel Meade says he is certain to improve for the better ground and although current favourite Simonsig will be hard to beat, I'm confident Monksland can land this race under the guidance of Paul Carberry.


2.40

GRAND CRUS 11/8

Pretty surprised to see Grand Crus available at such a big price and with connections seriously considering entering this novice chaser into the Gold Cup until the last minute. David Pipe's 7 year old is unbeaten over fences in 3 starts, beating the 2nd favourite in this race Bobs Worth a shade cosily on his final start (although that rival has had a wind operation subsequently which should see him improve). He came 2nd to the amazing Big Bucks twice over hurdles last year and I'll be pretty surprised if he isn't good enough to win this.

3.20

SIZING EUROPE 10/11

All about the defending champion Sizing Europe for me here. Henry De Bromhead's 10 year old was an impressive winner of this race last year and seems to have improve again by slamming his opponents in the Tingle Creek back in December before easily beating what many believe to be his main rival Big Zeb at Punchestown last month. Although Big Zeb's connections believe the ground was too soft that day and Colm Murphy is fantastic at getting his horses ready for big races, I can't see the winner of this race in 2010 bettering his 2nd to Sizing Europe in this race last year. I'm not a fan of Finnian's Rainbow at all and I'll be very surprised if Sizing Europe isn't victorious for the 2nd consecutive year.

4.00

SON OF FLICKA NAP 40/1 & CARLITO BRIGANTE 16/1

SON OF FLICKA (NAP) is either going to go very close to winning or finish absolutely nowhere but I think that this could be a classic plot by Donald McCain. This 8 year old has been in absolutely terrible form this year but as a result he has become very well handicapped. 12 months ago Son of Flicka was seen finishing a narrowly beaten 2nd in the Martin Pipe Conditionals Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival off a 5lb higher mark when being beaten by the excellent Sir Des Champs. Sir Des Champs has since become an excellent chaser, winning his only 3 starts in that sphere to date which have included to Grade 2s. This, and previous efforts behind Russian War and Quartz De Thaix demonstrate that on his day he is a very talented horse and there was no fluke about his 2nd last year. I have a strong feeling that connections have had this race in their mind for quite a while and have tried to get his handicap mark down to a level that he looks thrown in on and it seems they have done that. With trainer Donald McCain in great form, with stable jockey Jason Maguire on for the first time since May 2010 and getting down to his joint lowest weight of the last 12 months of 10-6, with a record at Cheltenham of finishing beaten less than 1.5L on his 2 starts and with money coming I really think that he could be thrown in off his current mark and 40/1 could be made ridiculous at the end of the race tomorrow.

Another tough race with a massive 28 runners going to post. Not a race for big bets as there could easily be a horse in this race who is much better than his form figures. The second horse I'm siding with is CARLITO BRIGANTE, the winner of this race 12 months ago. This Gordon Elliot trained 6 year old was a very, very impressive winner of this race last year and despite having to carry a stone more in racing weight tomorrow under the welter burden of top weight, I am confident he is good enough to cope with this rise. In the 2 months after the festival last year Carlito Brigante demonstrated how classy an animal he truly is when posting an excellent 4th behind Big Bucks and Grand Crus at Aintree before bettering that result at the Punchestown Festival when finishing 3rd behind the extremely talented Quevega and Mourad and beating Voler La Vedette, who has won 2 Grade 2s and a Grade 1 subsequently. Although very poor in his only subsequent hurdles race back in October, I'm willing to overlook that latest effort. With a recent spin on the flat to get him race fit (ran very encouragingly), I'm confident he's been able to improve enough since last year now that he is a 6 year old and with Elliott's ability to get them ready for Cheltenham plus Carlito Brigante's affinity for the course he looks a very good e/w price.


4.40

ULCK DU LIN 12/1

Ulck Du Lin is a French recruit for the excellent Paul Nicholls stable who will be making his debut for this yard at the festival. With a handicap mark of 130 achieved in France, I'm convinced Nicholls has yet to run him in England to protect his mark specifically for this race and with the natural improvement he gets from similar recruits I think that a mark of 130 should be well within his capabilities and fancy him to go very close. Although Ruby Walsh has chosen Willie Mullins' Gorgeous Sixty Instead, Daryl Jacob is a more than capable jockey and Ruby may have decided to go with a horse who has form in the book.

5.15

COOL GEORGE 28/1

I have already backed the two horses battling for favouritism in this race in the shape of MOSCOW MANNON and NEW YEARS EVE at 16/1 and 25/1 respectively and although I think they will both take all the beating, I think the value in both horses no longer remains. One at a bigger price is unfancied trainer Miss Jackie Du Plessis' Cool George who was successful on his only start to date back in January. That day, Cool George never broke sweat as he came home a very facile winner by 9L and the form of that race looks pretty strong. The 2nd Umdachar won on his next start before coming a narrowly beaten 2nd in a Listed bumper at the weekend. Considering how easy a winner he was that day and with natural improvement, its really difficult to say how good this horse really is but if he was with one of the top trainers I think he's be at least half the price in the betting. This is a very open race but I couldn't help but be very impressed with him on his debut and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he goes very close to winning this at a big price.

 

Damn pricewise- was looking at Get Me Out Of Here for the coral cup alllast week, should have put a bet on him, but thought I would wait to the day and now pricewise has tipped him up!!

 

Like you tam- I fancy Join Together to upset maybe! At worst place!!

 

I quite fancy cannington brook in the rsa. class horses just never seem to see it out. also love argocat today, 20-1 seems a formidable price, fits every stat, tom taafe has won it before, wish it was tomorrow when I'm going as is have a massive bet. gotta save some tho.

 

Tamerlo

Im with you on Teaforthree. He was only a length behind Join Together at Cheltenham in November. I expect both horses to run big races today.

For the Champion Chase I can only see 2 possible winners - Sizing Europe or Finians Rainbow. I have just taken the 9/2 on FR but will also probably have a saver on SE.

In the Coral Cup Get me out of here is a solid each way bet. I also like Third Intention at a bigger price. He had an easy win latest, was 7th in the Greatwood Hurdle here in November, 7th in the Triumph Hurdle last year and so I think 20/1 or better is overpriced.

 

o and lively baron in the first. Those mccain horses are tough.

 

has anyone had a treble on the remaining champions of the championship races to regain their crowns?
I always thought Hurricane Fly was the most vulnerable, I can easily see SE and BB winning and Long Run is still a reasonable price for the Gold Cup I think.

 

1.30 Harry the Viking 13/2
Court Red Handed 66/1 e/w

2.05 Cotton Mill 10/1

2.40 Bobs Worth 9/2

3.20 Finian's Rainbow 11/2

4.00 Cape Dutch 18/1 e/w