I actually am an Actuary, and can confirm that this is true. The doing very little bit anyway. The fortune is something of an exaggeration sadly.
Posted by Zenyatta Last year there were 15 runners in the Supreme and the bets I placed were as follows: Cue Card - Nothing but all my money back up to £200 should he win. Spirit Son - £40 at 5/1 (Profit of £40) Al Ferof - £38.91 at 8/1 (Profit of £150.2) Zaidpour - £29.00 at 8/1 (Profit of £61) Recession Proof - £22.27 at 8/1 (Profit of 43p) Sprinter Sacre - £20 at 9/1 (No profit/loss) Hidden Universe - £11.73 at 16/1 (Loss of 59p) Gibb River - £9.53 at 20/1 (Profit of 13p) Marsh Warbler - £9.53 at 20/1 (Profit of 13p) Magens Star - £9.53 at 20/1 (Profit of 13p) Dunraven Storm - £7.70 at 25/1 (Profit of 20p) Spanish Treasure - £3.92 at 50/1 (Loss of 8p) Rathlin - £3.92 at 50/1 (Loss of 8p) Far Away So Close - £1.98 at 100/1 (Loss of 2p) Sheer Genius - £1.98 at 100/1 (Loss of 2p) Total Stake - £200.00 The above shows how I manipulated the market to make either nothing (or a minuscule loss in some cases) or a profit depending on whether I fancied the horse or not, Al Ferof being my biggest winner by far. I expect to do a similar thing this year except I will focus all my winnings on Peddlers Cross, and might be braver and completely discount others, because I think he is the only one who might be able to beat the favourite. Hope that helps and at least shows you the theory. Many Thanks for that Zen, would be most intersted in seeing what you put together this year.
Zen...................Quick question, what if i fancy Sprinter Sacre.....is there a way i can still make a profit by backing him also>?
If you fancy Sprinter Sacre it is still advisable to do the above to cover your stake, or part of it. Equalise the profit from the Paddy Power offer, across the horses you perceive as the dangers and then bet any potential profit on Sprinter Sacre instead.
Zen......Sorry to sound dull but i dont quite get what you mean regarding me fancying sprinter sacre? also, if my calcultions are right? i dont see how you've worked out your profit? as in for spirit son, you would have won £200 if he had won but if you take off all the other stakes, its not £40?? am i missing something?? and al ferod would have been £140??
Abertown - I think you're forgetting to include getting your stake back. So, for Spirit Son for example, you stake £40 at 5-1, returns £240 including your £40 stake. Exclude your £200 staked and you get £40 profit. As for Sprinter Sacre, what he means is, instead of backing Spirit Son for £40 to make a £40 profit, he'd have backed all the horses in the race for the same average profit - it would be much smaller I think (can't be bothered to work out what it would be). Then you can back Cue Card for the amount of profit you're guaranteed to win if any of the others win. Then if Cue Card wins you get all your money back on the other bets, plus the profit on the bet you've backed him for. If Cue Card doesn't win, you've lost exactly the same amount as you've won whichever horse does win, so you lose nothing in total. Hope that makes sense!
Danish I suspect everyone is thinking this is more complicated than it is. I'll wait until the final declarations and post what I do on here.
In the cold light of day is the "money back if SS wins" simply reducing the over-round from 112% to 96% (or something along those lines) meaning the wise punter actually "can't lose" on the race? Most people couldn't be arsed but if you spread your bets you are guaranteed a few % points profit.
OddDog i've just spent too long trying to work this out. it can't be a win-win on the face of it. the logic defies me so it must be fishy. it looks a draw at best but i want to get the better of it. there must be a calculation that makes it profitable but i've got to get my maths head on. i'm like a dog with a bone with things like this but i'm failing at this minute.
Possibly you'll only get the small "guarnteed win" when the final declarations are in? Too many "maybe horses" right now.
Many Thanks Danish and Zen!! much appreciated. Looking forward to seeing your final calculations Zenyatta once you've got the final decs!!
What your thoughts no Zenyatta now that Peddlers Cross is out, surely only a handful can win this now which could work out well i guess for the Paddy Power bet??
Major change of plan! As I've said before, Peddlers Cross is the only one I could see beating Sprinter Sacre so I'm not sure what I'll do now. I will update when the declarations come out, on Wednesday I think.
My old company was a training ground for actuaries. More actuaries there than any other company I believe (definitely proportionally). So at which life assurance company do you work?
i look forward to wednesday then Zen. I do think SS cant be beaten now even though i believe that Al ferof and Menorah (if he jumps) can trouble him.
KPMG - not exactly an obvious life assurance company, but there're a fair few actuaries here all the same. Along with millions of accountants. I'm not, strictly speaking a fully qualified Actuary yet, but hope to be in the not so far future. Who did you used to work for if you don't mind me asking?
