Evening all, Was gutted to see the news earlier this evening, In some way I hope he doesnt run, its very unusal for a horse to fall while schooling, He falls while schooling, imo he wont make it round cheltenham, so I dont want it to end in tears. On other hand I would love to see him run one more time, especially with me being there and although my money will be on LR I will be cheering Kauto all the way!
I don't mind Nicholls, I find him fairly honest about his horses and anything thats going off in his yard. Im sure this latest setback with Kauto as knocked the yard for six hes without doubt the stable star and Im sure they were all looking forward to the Gold Cup. Knowing the publics affection for the horse he probably left it a couple of days. It wasn't like he had broke down on the gallops or seriously injured himself during the fall. Like Ruby and Nicholls have both said hes been cantering since the fall, Hes had physio like any other horses would do He's admitted defeat and now we know hes had a fall during schooling. End of story Antepost betting is always risky, Espcially where Cheltenham is concerned...
He can fall schooling and jump like a stag in the race. I would have no concern in that regard. Furthermore, connections know full well what a fantastic horse he is and you can be damned sure that he won't be there unless he is 110%. It sounds like he's stiff after the fall so it is perfectly plausible that he will improve quickly over the next few days. Equally well, he may not, but it's impossible to say either way. I suspect that is why it is '50-50'. We just have to wait in hope. God how I hope he's there ready to roll. It would be a travesty if he was robbed of this opportunity.
Anything new Nass or just very pessimistic? Understandable though because I can only imagine how he's feeling. Probably wants to play down his own expectations too. If he's been cantering every day it can't be anything major, just that he isn't quite right. If that is the case then he must at least have a chance (however small) of shaking it off for the big day.
Im hopeful this is a ploy for connections and the yard to get a double figure price for the Gold Cup...
Be good to have the views of someone who is clued up on equine injuries. While I know every injury will be different. If a horse is stiff after a fall, generally speaking how long does it take them to get over it? How much of a factor would age play? I assume there's also the mental aspect of things too in that will it play on the horses mind if he asked to go for a big one which in the Gold Cup he obviously will. Nicholls often says he thinks it took the horse a number of months to get over his Gold Cup fall. While that was a horrendous fall the fear must be it may have a similar impact (from a racing perspective, naturally well being will be pimary concern)
It's impossible to say Henke. The 'problem' is clearly not major given that he has been cantering every day since. However, how quickly it will clear up is unknown. It sounds very much like a case of wait and see. He's still working so, unlike Grandouet/Fingal Bay/etc, he doesn't have that worry. He's just not himself but to what extent, and what it is specifically, is impossible to say without further details.
All I ask is that if there is any doubt and the spring in his step isnt there, that they say thats enough old boy- go and enjoy retirement healthy and as a legend. He does not sound good and you do no want crashing falls in the lead up to Cheltenham. He has performed miracles already this season. He owes us all nothing. It might be a blessing from above, a bit of a sign that Cheltenham isnt for him now.
Drifted right out to 10s on Betfair now, couln't believe what I was seeing when this news broke on Sky Sports News around an hour ago! Hopefully his powers of recovery are enough over the next 10 days to get rid of the knock and the subsequent bruising, and they can get him to Cheltenham 100%. On the other hand it might make Nicholls' mind up not to run at Cheltenham, and go for something like the Bowl at Aintree when he is right which is usually a less competitive race but a Grade 1 all the same. Would certainly allow Kauto to go out on a high if indeed they are planning on retirement for him after this season. I'm usually an optimist, but something about how Ruby, PN and CS sound just makes me feel he won't line up in two weeks time. Every cloud has a silver lining though and I can certainly see Grand Crus taking up the GC engagement if Kauto doesn't run, and although he is nothing like a replacement for the King, I do think he has the beating of Long Run.
Sorry Zen, went for tea. He was very downbeat in his manner and said that the horses wellbeing was key and if he didn't make the race he wouldn't mind too much as the horse will recover. He said he was a "Grave Doubt" as quoted by Cornelius on Twitter
Desperate news for the festival - I was at the gym crawling on the treadmill and this was Sky breaking news, couldn't make out exactly what it was all about at the time. If Nicholls says he's 50-50 he's probably more 10-90, the horse owes no-one nothing and all Clive Smith wants is for the horse to be healthy and happy, he's already suffered near heartache with Master Minded this season. Kauto could never win the race IMO but this does take away a chunk of the interest in the race and to whoever mentioned Grand Crus earlier I agree, now it's an even weaker affair the novice could figure. Hopefully they get the horse fit and well for one more King George....
So sad to hear this he'll surely not get there if he's only '50/50' and sore. I fear these daily bulletins will become less promising as we get closer to the big day. Cheltenham really needs Kauto Star to be there and it's a travesty (from a racing point of view) that it looks like the sport's shining beacon and the champion of the people is deprived of one last almighty hurrah.... Not the news I'd been hoping for prior to the Festival.
Maybe a touch more positive this evening. Nicholls saying that Clifford was happier with him tonight and that he just needs to improve over the coming weeks. He's now back into 2nd favourite for the Gold Cup too, albeit by a small margin. At least he isn't 20.0 which indicates that there is still a fair chance he'll show up when it matters. Finger, toes, etc all crossed.
Let's face it we are all guessing at this stage. Much as I admire the horse the Gold Cup is the Gold Cup and it will still be a great race if he does not run. Back to something Istabraq said. I fully agree about the perils of trainers disclosing news about horses. I don't know why they bother - they are damned if they do and damned if they don't. I remember a few years ago there was a scare about Kicking King before the Gold Cup but he came right and obviously won. Some ante-post punters then had the brass neck to slag off the Taaffes, one of Irish racing's most respected families. If I were the trainer of a leading Gold Cup fancy I would not be telling the public anything - just because you like an ante-post bet does not mean you are entitled to privileged information.
Fulkes - only since the inception of exchanges has there been so much emotion around the wellbeing of horses and which is their favoured race, the idea of sitting in your front room and laying a short price fav and making easy money when you know the horse has just got injured has lured a new breed of greed into the sport. Layers got hurt on KK and also on Binocular and also on a Derby winner whose name escapes me.
Yes Grizzly - the curse of the Exchanges. The furore over Binocular was pathetic and goes to show that many lured into racing by the exchanges know nothing about racing or horses. The idea that Henderson was fiddling the horse was laughable, especially when you speak to someone in the yard and hear what actually happened.
Racing succeeded for hudreds of years without exchanges, yes there were attempts to cheat but to profit everyone had to back the winner, what happens these days is painful - trainers send out half cooked horses on the wrong ground over the wrong distance and people know this, click a few buttons and make money, I struggle to understand how it's permitted, no amount of policing/monitoring will ever determine accurately whether a jockey is trying. I don't think people were questioning Henderson/Binocular last year Fulkes, I think the issue stems back to 2010 when the horse went from being out for the season to hacking up in a Champion Hurdle inside 3 weeks - and you can bet your life there were layers who got hurt then !
