I have now completed the trends studying but will not be publishing them all this year. However I will answer any questions on trends if you wish to post them. Be lucky all and get on Weird Al for the Gold Cup
Gary - I've been doing some for the last few days on the big races on Tues and Weds, and be interested to know your thoughts mate. So far I've done the Supreme, Arkle, Champion Hurd, Queen Mother and RSA. Be good to compare to trendsters!
As I'm there on the Tuesday I would love a couple of pointers as to what to look for in the Supreme. Would be great to get off to a nice start . Failing that, I understand the Arkle has some nice trends which somewhat point away from Sprinter Sacre?!
Nam - I have merely completed my homework mate, I will not be naming any winners until the weights are published and final declarations are sorted Boston Bob will NOT win the Neptune if he takes this route BUT I firmly believe he will now head down the Albert route and Simonsig will head up the Neptune market ;-)
George: In the Supreme you'd be looking for a LTO winner, possibly Irish who has deffo run in the last 45 days who was NH bred and not flat bred Arkle wise you are totally correct the trends are very much against Sprinter Sacre BUT that horse is an awesome prospect, I fully understand though why PP have taken him on!! Only 2 from last 19 favs have won! Winning course form a major bonus, he has none. Interestingly 23 from 25 were 1st or 2nd LTO which leaves Al Ferof with it all to do also! Enjoy your day, you will without doubt back some winners mate
Cheers for that GDC, am going to get well and truly stuck into the cards once a few more have dropped out would make a pleasant change!
I won't be as secretive as you Gary and I have Sous Les Cieux top of my trends for the Supreme. Very closely followed by Trifolium and Colour Squadron. Sprinter Sacre is way clear on my trends for the Arkle unfortunately, as I was hoping I'd have an excuse to take him on.
Gaz - the breeding argument is a very new one, the last few years NH bred horses have got the upper hand but go back a dozen years and it was the flat bred horses that dominated. Some feel that the ground policy at the course of good to soft is the reason but I don't subscribe to that, the trend therefore is a red herring for me, I certainly agree with the run inside 45 days (possibly the most important stat for thsi race) and I extend the last time out winner to also include second placed horses.
Gaz - I wasn't having a pop mate just thought I'd fire mine out there to see what others thought. I suppose it depends on which trend lines you use but I have quite a few positive ones about SS... Might be my way of working them out though mate....
Nam - Interesting, the only positive I could consider is rated 142 over hurdles. Can you give me some more that you have found then mate. As for having a 'pop' feel free mate, I do not mind in the slightest
Let me guess - Arkle = PC, highest rated over hurdles FW = something that failed to win on first two starts but won LTO Supreme = something that won in a graded race LTO
A couple I came up with were: The chase rating is equal or higher than their hurdle rating (past 4 of 4 winners fit this) - This ruled was against Peddlers and Menorah. Ran in February was another trend I used (3 out of 4 past winners fit this). This was against Al Ferof, Cue Card and Peddlers. That's just two of mine that I use....probably bloody rubbish! One I came up with against SS (as you may have noticed I use the last 4 winners only to avoid skewing) is none of the last 4 winners had run in the Supreme at all. Only Peddlers hasn't. Who knows could be completely wrong. But SS was top of mine.
Sprinter Sacre looks the best horse this season BUT i still have that little niggle about him not wanting to engage in a battle HOWEVER if he is the horse BJG believes him to be he wont ever get into a battle as he will be well clear of all
