1.55 Midnight Oil 10/1 each way. Decent debut but looked like the run would bring him on. If it does he should reverse form with Bat Masterson. Minsk simply must be taken on in this race and I feel he's capable of the upset.
3.00 Fairyhouse Tharawaat 12/1 Gordon Elliot's inmate looks very interesting and vastly overpriced to me on what is his handicap debut over hurdles off a mark of 132. This 7 year old has been campaigned over fences for the past couple of years and makes his first hurdles start since October 2009. As a chaser, Tharawaat has shown some pretty good form winning off a mark of 133 impressively a big handicap chase at Galway back in October as well as posting an excellent 8L beaten 6th behind Divers in the Centenary Novices at Cheltenham off a mark of 137. That race has pretty strong form as he finished in front of the very talented Swing Bill and Shakalakaboomboom and demonstrated he is quite a talented animal. Back in his hurdling days, Tharawaat was a Grade 3 winner at Fairyhouse (his only start at the track) and a 1L beaten 2nd in a Grade 1 and although neither race has worked out too well you don't achieve those results lightly. Tharawaat was last seen finishing midfield in the Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park where he finished midfield off a mark of 140 and it was a pretty good effort. Tomorrow Tharawaat has blinkers reintroduced after having them off for the last 2 starts and that could easily spark a revival of fortunes. Gordon Elliot is in decent enough form at the moment and has this fella entered into 4 races at Cheltenham (3 chase 1 hurdle race) so he clearly believes he's also in decent form. He clearly goes well at the track and with the current soft to heavy conditions absolutely ideal, if this isn't a prep race for Cheltenham I think he can put in a very good performance and go very close.
2.55 Newcastle Conquisto 33/1 I've had a big enough sized bet on Steve Golings lightly raced 7 year old who has clearly had his fair amount of issues in his hurdling career to date. Previously a rather good flat horse for Clive Cox who was at his peak rated 91, this gelding made a rather impressive start to his hurdling career when coming an excellent 2nd on debut in March 2010 and won his next couple of starts. This front runner made his handicap debut in the Grade 3 Swinton hurdle back in May 2010 and put in an excellent effort off a mark of 131 to finish 7.25L behind Eradicate back in 5th. That was a very good race with the 4 beating him home Eradicate, Overturn, Issaquah and Toubab all very talented hurdlers and it was a really, really good effort. As a result of being either very difficult to trainer or injury prone, Conquisto has only had 4 starts over hurdles since, spread over a period of a year and half and with only 8 starts in this sphere to date he is pretty unexposed. After an ok effort in a Listed Hurdle at Market Rasen back in July 2010, Conquisto made his reappearance after a 7 month absence at the same track over 2m3f in a Class 3 hurdle in February last year and it looked pretty clear he needed the run. On his 2nd last start after a 2 month absence, Conquisto again put up a very nice performance at the Aintree festival in the Class 2 handicap hurdle over 2m off a mark of 131 to finish a 19L beaten 6th, although the front 2 were 14L clear of 3rd. It was another very credible performance, especially as he was unable to adopt his usual front running tactics and it really emphasised in my mind that he need his reapperance run. After a further 10 month absence Conquisto's last start came only 6 days ago in the same race at Market Rasen as he had in his reappearance a year earlier and it again looked like he needed the run. I think its very interesting to note that he travelled far better than he did in the corresponding race a year earlier and was still on the bridle at 2 out before being given a fairly easy ride to come home. It certainly wasn't a hard race and I've absolutely no doubt he will improve bucket loads for that. Tomorrows race represents a Class 2 event and Conquisto races off a mark of 129, 2lb below his two excellent efforts in a Grade 3 and at Aintree. He's dropped back 3f from his last race to 2m which is probably his best trip and I thought his reappearance run was very, very encouraging. The current going is good to soft ground which should be fine (won on this ground on flat) but his best performances have come on genuine good ground I really hope the ground dries out a little bit more to make it a little easier. Trainer Steve Gollings doesn't send many to Newcastle and has 1 win from his 4 previous runners at the track. Although 0-9 this month, Gollings had 3 winners in this sphere last month and his last flat horse won so he clearly has his string in decent form. Conquisto has already proven himself in better class races before and at 7 with only 8 hurdle races under his belt he should definitely be open to a little improvement. If allowed to make all, I think Conquisto has a very good chance of going extremely close in this race and I'll be very surprised if there isn't a bit of money around for him tomorrow.
Morning all, Two for me today: 3:05 Kempton - Michel Le Bon 9/2. I see has been popular on here already. I know Nicholls likes this horse. Travelled well in the Henessy for a long way. Drop back in trip in it's favour. (2 f) I feel could be well in at the weights but obviously taking a risk as more proven performers (eg Nacarat) in the field. 3:40 Kempton - Terre Du Vent 10/1. Good form in France. Not far behind Kasbah Bliss. Must think a lot to go in here on British Debut. Good luck all.
morning--was on the lash with that managain,hanagan.hes at lings for one reason only-----the flange--- whilst there he will ride just the one horse--OUR JOE MAC to win
Morning All - for those who follow pricewise like my goodself but don't have the racing post or seen his tips on the website , here are his 4 for today. Picansort 2.15 Ling Michel Le Bon 3.05 Kemp Portrait King 3.25 Newc Negus De Beaumont 3.25 Newc I went over to the newsagent and took a photo from the racing post haha with my iphone !!! Ingenius or what - probably won't have any winners now LOL !!!!
Morning all.... Two placepots for me Kempton: Leg 1: Sadler's Risk (4) Leg 2: Hunt Ball (3) Leg 3: Nacarat (3) Leg 4: Grumeti (4) Leg 5: Zaynar (1) Leg 6: Ashbrittle (10) 1 @ £15 £15 Newcastle: Leg 1: Bar De Ligne (3) Leg 2: Categorical (3) Leg 3: Stormy Weather (5) Leg 4: Portrait King (2) Leg 5: Agent Archie (1) Leg 6: Frascati Park (1) 1 @ £15 £15
A few I fancy too today... Bar de Ligne 1.50 Newcastle Portrait King 3.25 Newcastle Hunt Ball 2.30 Kempton Nacarat 3.05 Kempton Grumeti 3.40 Kempton Ashbrittle 4.45 Kempton Oasis Dancer 2.50 Lingfield
Very disappointing that only 10 Run in the Racing Plus Chase. It's meant to be one of the most competitive races with at least 16 Runners
had a few bets today - 2.00 Sadler's Risk 2.50 Oasis Dancer 3.40 Grumeti 3.55 Showboating (all singles) Then Lingfield L15 - The Strig Oasis Dancer Loyalty Showboating and a line on the S6 Off to the pub this afternoon, so as someone once said.... Stay lucky.
Anyone a fan on conspiracies? Picansort runs with the visor on today, after running a series of good races without headgear (not had visor on since June 2011). The "interesting" thing is that the horse has only won twice in his career, and both of those runs were when he was wearing a visor. Interesting that in the final of the series is when they return the visor....
Nass: Enjoy Towcester tomoz, horses for courses mate as I am sure you know, also check out the trainers with the profit ratio ;-) Rather a day for watching sport than gambling, had a couple of ante post bets, Mister Marker and Posh Bird, Hectors Choice EW and have been convinced by ROTO's analysis of Conquisto so will have an EW play there. Couldn't back against England despite believing if the Daffs are disciplined they will win!! With no football until tomorrow it is deffo a watching day
My 5 picks for the comp: 2.30 Kempton Not So Sure Dick - has a 16lbs pull with Hunt Ball for just 4 lengths on Wincanton running and must go very close here. 3.05 Kempton Hectors Choice - needs to win this to get in the Grand National and has put up some tremendous performances in defeat this season - looks the pick of the weights to me 3.25 Newcastle Posh Bird - a thorough stayer who still looks well treated by the handicapper 4.20 Chepstow Dream Esteem - nice comeback 3rd last time and has the champ on board to help matters today. Her only career win to date was on Gd/Sft but she has run very well with AP on board previoulsy at Sothwell on sft/hvy when only 4 lengths behind Banjaxed Girl. 4.45 Kempton So Fine - after 2 wins in novice company Pip Hobbs gelding had the misfortune to run into not one, but two, Pipe plot horses last time out, plus a decent Nicholls horse. Worth a dabble at a decent price today, even though there is potentially another Pipe plot in this. Best of luck everyone
Following up from my post yesterday I just wanted to highlight to you good people that the 5/2 about Netminder is more than a fair price. I really, really fancy this horse in the first at Newcastle and will be playing it in a double with my football team who are 8/13 at home versus Wolves with both centre-midfielders (two of the best centre-mids in the league mark my words!) back after 3 games missing. This double pays just over 4/1 and I'm not holding back here. Think it's a cracking bet. The racing, for me, is on record because i'm off to watch 15 oversized, possibly inbred, brainless farmers throwing an egg around and dropping their catches significantly more than their Welsh equivalant....
off out today so will not only miss the horses but Wales hopefully battering england, tho us taffs are never confident. new breed tho these boys. I really do fancy one today at a big price tho, been dropping in the weights, a lot lower than in its pomp, and I think Caroline keevil is a decent trainer. tasheba 4.45 Kemp. good luck all
Epona - cheapskate or what haha !!!! I got the ooh aah daily star and thought the bookies wasn't open for the racing post and his website had'nt put them up so thought why not haha.
Im looking forward to seeing Minsk in the first at Fairyhouse. Rated 106 on the flat and an impressive winner of the Irish Cesarewitch. Is he an hype horse or the real deal... I hope the latter! On paper he should win this doing handstands!
