The Arkle Challenge Trophy - Tuesday 13th March

Tam/Quel Esprit.....I have already pointed out why Sprinter Sacre didnt quite get up the hill in the Supreme, it was a serious error of judgement from McCoy. The Tizzard boy committed for home far to early on Cue Card, and McCoy stupidly matched strides with him, that's why the winning time was faster than that of the Champion Hurdle, so the pair of them were sitting ducks turning in.

We already have proof that Cue Card gets up the Cheltenham hill, he romped home in the Bumper, and Cue Card was the only horse who ran a similar race in the Supreme to SS, yet SS finished infront of him. I believe the result in the Supreme may well have been different had McCoy been more patient, as he was on the horse with the most speed, yet rode him like a plodder that stays longer than the mother in law.*

You can also factor in, that he was only 5, a year younger than the winner, and was alot less experienced than the winner, who had experienced the festival, when runner up in the bumper the year before.*

Chasing is a completely different ball game aswell, he was never cut out for hurdles, and this was made clear before the Supreme by connections, hes a massive tank of an Animal, and was always going to come on a tonne when going chasing.

A top class 2 mile chaser generally needs more acceleration than a top class 2 mile hurdler. as over hurdles you dont lose much speed were as over fences, you lose speed, then the horse has to accelerate back up to top gear.*

At Kempton Peddlers Cross could not live with the acceleration away from his fences from SS, The whole race SS had him out of his comfort zone.

Over fences aswell, they go slower, so there is less focus on staying and more focus on which horse jumps best, and has the best kick come the business end. And as far as jumping and speed goes there is no contest whatsoever, SS jumps better and has more pace than everything else*

 

Top Class....It is impossible to 2nd guess anyone, though I know Nicky Henderson rates SS as one of the most exciting prospects he's ever had, and with Finains Rainbow losing at Ascot, through being outstayed, I can't believe Henderson fancys that one up the hill against SE.*

So he may well be tempted to send SS for the Champion Chase, afterall theres only realy one horse they have to beat, with the way things have worked out. I don't recall Henderson having a history of sending novices for championship races, but with the championship race looking weak, and SS looking like the best novice he has ever trained, then it has to be very tempting.*

I think he will have to win very easily on Saturday for the CC to be considered, but as the majority of this board think Peddlers Cross is the best thing since sliced bread, and he delt with him very easily, then why shouldn't he deal with Cue Card very *easily.*

I personally think Cue Card is a better horse than Peddlers Cross, and I expect him to prove that in the Arkle, but that's just my view. Cue Card is getting 3 pounds and has had a few runs at Newbury this season, so he knows the track well, and he is used to travelling there, so SS will be facing a tougher task, but I'd still be amazed if Cue*Card can even get him off the bridle.*

So I'm predicting an easy win on Saturday, but it's impossible to say wether Henderson will be tempted by the CC. I hope he is though, as theres no point running a horse of this calibre in a novice event

 

Do you actually believe some of nonsense you post?

Peddlers Cross won by 4 lenghs on debut, beating the Chazer, a horse who had lost by 14 lenghs before that, and 11 lenghs after that, in class 3s and 4s. Yet in your view PC could not have been more impressive, have you gone insane?

It was an adequate debut that told us very little about Peddlers Cross's ability over fences, as he beat nothing of note by a small margin, but he was on the bridle and didn't look to be doing alot.

In comparison Sprinter Sacre beat Lightening Rod by 24 lenghs, a half decent horse, that had won his previous race, a class 3 a few weeks beforehand, and SS pinged pretty much every fence like a top class seasoned chaser.

Peddlers Cross's debut was just an adequate introduction to chasing were as Sprinter Sacre's debut sent out a massive statement to the rest of his Arkle rivals. And it was proven at Kempton that Sprinter Sacre is in a different league to that plodder Peddlers Cross, and it will be proven again at Cheltenham, assuming SS goes for the Arkle

 

I could say the same about you Shergar. Peddlers was foot perfect throughout and won with ease. He was extremely impressive. As was Al Ferof. They beat on their debuts what was put in front of them. Peddlers jumped beautifully throughout. Adequate introduction my arse. Peddlers a plodder. You are laughable.

Once again, because you've fallen in love with a horse that has proven he doesn't stay up the Cheltenham hill you're skewing the facts to fit your story.

 

You keep going on about how quick SS is. So what??? Since when does out and out pace coupled with a lack of stamina equal a Arkle winner in the modern game?

 

Please Quel Esprit stop, I can't take any more of this laughing. I think you could put every sane form judge in the country in a room, and everyone of them would agree that SSs debut was miles superior to PCs debut, in everway possible.

And then at Kempton PC making his 3rd chasing start, and that's not forgetting his point to point experience, couldn't even trouble the year younger SS on only his 2nd ever chasing start, and you realy think things are going to change at Cheltenham, if anything SSs superiority will be even greater, as he has more scope for improvement

 

have you watched Peddlers debut?

 

Yes he won by 4 lenghs, without doing alot, and jumped adequately, told us nothing really, like I said at the time. SS beat a better horse, by 6 times as far, and jumped like a stag

 

Good to see you back Shergs, welcome back! Great minds must think alike as earlier on in this thread I expressed that I'd give Sprinter Sacre a big chance in the Queen Mum too! He's a serious animal and savaged Peddlers during Christmas.... Whilst I don't expect him to beat Peddlers as far at Cheltenham it does seem slightly foolhardy to suggest Peddlers will turn the tables around as easily as some are suggesting. Two very good novices, any other year Peddlers would be looking the proverbial 'good thing' but Sprinter Sacre really has looked different class over fences.

 

Shergar, I've just wasted 20p to watch the Supreme from last year on the RP site to see if my memory was scrambled and Sprinter Sacre was the victim of a terrible ride by AP. I don't like the jockey so i'm happy to slag him off at any opportunity. What I saw was Sprinter Sacre looking very much the winner about 3 out. He was traveling all over Cue Card and Spirit Son happily galloping away like a champ in waiting. Then something happened. He got tired. His stamina started to give out. Those long legs couldn't carry him fast enough when the going got tough and the Cheltenham Hill came into play and Al Ferof and Spirit Son went by him pretty easily. His jumping went to pieces over that last hurdle as well as that dreaded tiredness kicked in. Yes, it could be that he shouldn't have gone with Cue Card stride for stride but it's also at least equally likely that he just does not get 2 miles at a truly run pace. The only piece of evidence we have is the Supreme from last year because every other race he's had has categorically not been run at anything approaching Cheltenham pace. Isn't that enough of a worry to say that at 9/4 he's a terrible price for the Arkle?

If it's not then why not look at his form over fences, the form which you say is shaping up to be quite impressive. The form which includes the most impressive chasing debut you've seen.

The hard facts about Sprinter Sacre's fencing form is that on his debut he jumped poorly in the first half of the race (especially the 3rd fence when Bass almost came off) but jumped excellently thereafter. From this race only Altan Khan has won subsequently. Prior to the race Lightening Rod had won a poor grade 3 novices chase in a slow time from which there has been only one winner. Altan Khan had done nothing before the race, neither had Kings Counsel, Front of House or Celtic Wish.

On his second chase he faced off against Peddlers Cross in a three runner race on a fast track which puts emphasis on speed not stamina. Hardly a good replication of Cheltenham in my eyes. He out jumped Peddlers Cross but was certainly not foot perfect throughout, took a nice breather half way round and kicked on to win with ease in what turned out to be a sprint to the line. Would any of us expect Sprinter Sacre to be beaten by PC in a sprint? I wouldn't. The third home that day finished fourth next time out. PC has not run since neither has SS. Visually very impressive from SS. McCain has since found that PC was suffering from a problem that day which would have contributed significantly to the poor run.

Now, you've said several times in this thread that PC is a hype horse who you couldn't wait to get beaten and that the value of his form is very low so we all know you can't be basing your extremely high opinion of Sprinter Sacre on this race because all he beat was, in your opinion, a hype horse that isn't a serious challenger for the Arkle. He won on a track that is nothing like Cheltenham and in a style of race which is definitely not going to be replicated at Cheltenham. You can’t be basing it on the debut performance because when you actually look at the run he almost fell at the third, jumped scratchily in the first half of the race and beat a load of horses who have struggled to win chases either before or after that race. So what are you founding this on?

We've already established Sprinter Sacre's only piece of form at Cheltenham show's he doesn't stay 2m at championship pace and every other hurdle he's run in has been a relative egg and spoon race compared to what he'll face in March 2012.

So, i’m puzzled. What, exactly, have you seen from Sprinter Sacre’s chasing form (or hurdle form for that matter) which has led you to think he is the second coming?

 

Whilst I'm in the Sprinter Sacre camp on this one, nice response Quel Esprit

 

Quelesprit, you don't have to pay 20p. Just register(+password) with ATR and Racing UK, and you can watch any replay from years past- available about half an hour after the race(choosing the one which one was covering it- look for the TV icon in ATR).

 

Jesus. I didn't even think about atr - watch everything else there but as Chelts isn't one of their tracks I didn't bother checking. Not to worry. I watched every race both PC andvSS hav run so worth the quid.

 

Are the doubters going to finally swallow there pride, and concede that nothing is going to touch SS in the Arkle?

I think the stamina doubts now look to be laid to rest, he won over 2m1 today in a track record time in 2nd gear, despite pulling like a train early on .

There's still 6/4 available, have the bookies gone insane? I'd make him the biggest certainty of the festival

 

Really impressive from SS today - didn't have too much quality to beat if we're being honest but you can only beat what's put in front of you and he did it really easily today. The most impressive 2m novice performance this year.

I'd temper enthusiasm only slightly by High Taylor's tweet giving a bit more insight into the track record time:

'Times at Newbury - Hugh Taylor on Twitter:

"Careful being too impressed with those times at Newbury today. For most of year they race over much further than advertised distances"'

To be fair to him he was on a hiding to nothing today - he loses and he gets absolutely slated. He wins and i was never going to throw the towel in anyway because he's not run against anything today that is as good as what he'll face in the Arkle and I'd still have a huge question mark about what he'll find off the bridle up the Cheltenham hill.

If 9/4 wasn't a good price imho then 6/4 isn't either as not all of the questions I posed were answered. Nevertheless, a worthy Arkle favourite.

Shergs - what prices are you sitting on about SS?

 

I'm not sitting on any prices, I don't bet antepost. It doesn't pay long term to bet Antepost. I did however have a bet on him at 8s for my boy as a Birthday present. I've backed him on all 3 starts so far, so I've made enough, got 8/13 this morning.

If this horse goes off odds against for the Arkle, which looks probable with the way the bookies have it now, il be steaming into him once again

 

he could fall with his bamby legs shergar

 

Those are the legs of a world class equine athlete, and are nothing like 'bamby' The only hope for the rest, is if something falls infront of him.

As we seen today it will be a question of how far Geraghty wishes to win by, if Geraghty allows him to hit top gear, then we will see something similar to Master Minded in 08

 

sizing would crush him in the champion thats why nicky is sticking to the arkle !!!