What do you think Toppy? I think this says they don't like his chances at Cheltenham so they might as well run in this valuable prize which will potentially give them a nice return with a promising horse but will also give them a handle on the best the Irish have to offer compared to the ones they have at home. Agree or disagree?
Mostly agree Zen Like you, I think that it can go one of two ways really. I think that whatever happens in the race, they can appease the owners by running the horse in a valuable Grade 1 novice hurdle. If he comes up short, he can be put away to grow into his frame for novice chasing and the owners are happy because at least Hendo has let him take his chance in another Grade 1. If he puts in a sterling effort, then they know it is worth giving him a shot at Cheltenham where he can gain some more big race experience and whilst not necessarily win, can be measured against his fellow generation which will be a useful gauge to next seasons planning. The form of his Tolworth win would all but rule out his chances at Cheltenham, but (and its a very optimisitic but!) they did say to you "Oh I see Captain Conan hasn't grown into that frame much". Maybe the piece of work he did suggested some improvement? Regardless really, the Deloitte will give everyone an idea and it will be interesting to see who lines up with him. PS- many thanks for the reply to my message the other day RE Kings Destiny, it seems everyone is in the dark about him and Betfair prices suggest we won't see him this season unfortunately.
Agree re Captain Conan. The impression I got was that the drift in the market pre-Tolworth was entirely justified. They think he's a nice horse for the future but shouldn't be winning a 2m G1 Hurdle race! I suspect it's more a reflection of the weakness of the others than anything else, for all that he is a horse of potential. As for Simonsig, nothing definite yet. He is entered for the 2m Novice Hurdle on Saturday so it will be interesting to see whether he is declared or not. The Neptune was absolutely the plan but there are plenty of others now, as I was, pushing the Supreme idea so it might be that the tide is turning.
All money is for the Supreme on the exchanges- into 11.5 Out to around 18 for Neptune last I looked. Do worry about that hill a little bit though even if it is the Supreme. He'll be swinging in hacking along though, that's for sure. Any indication of Mono Man? He's the forgotten horse he is.
He is indeed. He was just coming back into work when I was there. If the Festival is the plan then I'd expect to see him out fairly soon, maybe the Adonis if Simonsig runs on Saturday?
I think TRIFOLIUM has leading claims if he turns up. He looked very good on Sunday and was travelling better than So Young Three out at Navan before he weakened (raced keenly). I think this is going to be a poor renewal and he will get a strong pace which will suit. He is currently 16/1. I will wait until the day though as he is only 12s NRNB and I am not sure he runs yet
Paul Kealy has put up Simonsig for the Supreme in today's Weekender. He's already been clipped into a best priced 12/1 from 14s yesterday, and should there be signs that the 12/1 is going I will be forced to have a little on. On Oddschecker 8 bookies are 10/1, 6 are still holding 12/1, and 1 (Bodog, if they count) is 9/1. I am ready and waiting for if the 12/1 looks in danger.
12/1 looks threatened. Just the 4 bookies now quoting 12/1. I've taken a bit of it and will top up on either race when his target is known.
Who are the four Zen? I am not able to access racing sites here at work, but have a couple of bookie apps on me phone
Racing Post still waste column space and ink quoting both companies even though their prices are the same and have been for months.....
I wrote an e-mail to the totesport support address and got a response from Betfred which quite surprised me.
Now 8/1 with Coral and 9/1 with Skybet. Still those 3 (or 4 if you prefer) bookies holding the 12/1. Last priced matched for the Neptune on Betfair was 19/1 so it looks like Supreme it is as things stand. Obviously Henderson appears to have had a change of heart. Nothing confirmed yet but sorry for the duff information in advance! Lump on for the Supreme if he goes there and easily get it all back and more.
As soon as Henderson OFFICIALLY declares Simonsig for the Supreme, i going to fill my garden wheelbarrow and tip it over the desk at Bill Hills!
Why would they say they're targeting Simonsig at the Neptune then change their minds? That to me suggests they don't have a supreme horse or they're now running scared of Fingal Bay?
