I can't get my head round the Gold Cup this year Zen - every gene in my body screams out to me that Long Run will piss it but I dunno ................
I'm loving all the Kauto hype, no 12 year old will ever win a Gold Cup while i've a hole in my ****, so it means Long Run will kick off a decent price. This years field is likely to be worse than last year, Long Run is a year older and stronger, he should be around evens so any hype surrounding another horse is good news, Long Run id edging out towards 3/1 which come 3.30pm on that Friday might just look a little stupid.....
I think it is between Kauto Star and Long Run but I'm struggling to split them at this stage. My preference will probably be determined by the make-up of the race, ground conditions and so on, on the day. I cannot for one minute understand why people say Kauto can't win because he is 12. If Kauto was 8 and had done exactly what he has done this season then he'd be favourite so there is no logic to saying that he can't win because of his age. It just makes no sense to me. I think Long Run is probably just the more likely winner but, like in the King George, there shouldn't be as big a disparity between the two in the betting. I've already reinvested my King George stake at 9/2 on Kauto. At the moment I'm hoping to back Long Run after he is unimpressive in his prep at Newbury.
Just checked Oddscheckers updated prices and it seems no-one has changed the Quevega price for the Mares, 5/4 general despite Voler La Vedette disappointing today. I always doubted her making Cheltenham but whilst she was 4/1 second jolly Quevega's price was holding up, VLV is now out to 11 on betfair and Quevega into 2.16 and any time you can back a favourite with the high st at a bigger price than betfair I'm interested. I had a lump at 6/4 last week, seriously considering pressing They've shortend Grand Crus for the RSA and Zaidpour....
Zen I have this enduring image of Long Run closing the gap to Kauto Star up the Kempton straight (particularly after the last). If you add 2.5 furlongs and the Cheltenham hill into the mix there is only 1 winner for me ......................
Zen - I get the point you're making but biology hasn't altered, horses still peak between 7-9, no amount of rest or improved training methods will ever change that, Kauto's body is still 12, there's a reason it hasn't happened for over 40 years and only twice in history. I accept the way Kauto has performed this season suggests he could be the best 12 year old of all time but it will still take a mini miracle for his legs to take him up the hill in front of the field IMO
Ruby was riding a 3m race round Kempton though and not a 3m2 1/2f race round Cheltenham. I would hope that he is not planning on quickening it up fully a mile from home in the Gold Cup. I completely understand the point and it was my initial thought to, but, on reflection, Ruby was asking Kauto to lengthen very early and he wasn't really stopping at the finish. Slowing yes, but not out on his feet. Slightly more restrained tactics will give him every chance. As Ruby keeps showing, he is the man for the job when a decent tactical ride is required, or any ride at all for that matter. I completely understand your point and agree 100% to but to throw it back at you . . . Have we had a horse like Kauto Star for the last 40 years? And isn't Kauto Star (arguably, if you must) the 2nd greatest chaser of all time? Horses are not supposed to regain the Gold Cup. Only Kauto Star has ever managed it. Horses are not supposed to win 5 King Georges. Only Kauto Star has ever managed it. Horses are not supposed to be champions at 2m, 2m5f and 3m in the same season. Kauto has managed it. The list goes on and on. He just goes beyond all the statistics. He is unique and I think he has to have a great chance in the Gold Cup. I will strongly fancy him if it is a small field, which seems likely, there are no confirmed front runners good enough to make a strong pace, which seems likely, and the ground is on the good side of good/soft, which seems likely. In those circumstances I'd be disappointed if Ruby wasn't able to manipulate the race to bring Kauto home in front. I am not for a minute saying that he will win but I am saying that it is ludicrous to say that he can't win because he definitely can.
I agree 100% Grizzly- Age catches up with you, kempton a flat track suits Kauto in his oldish age, but the hill will kill him even if he is in front, Long Runs stamina will get him past the post 1st- Yes Kauto is a much better jumper than his younger counterpart! but he wont be able to sustain a quick enough canter up that hill to win the race. Only way he may win is if Long Runs jumping lets him down and he falls!- Which leads me on to another point, Surely if AP was on board he would go off evens if not odds on??
Zen I would argue Kauto Star ran to his absolute best in the race last year and was just outstayed up the hill by the younger horse. I could be wrong though. Ruby would want to kick on coming down the hill you think and try and steal a march? If he's still in front at the last he might pull it off. Maybe KS and Denman cut each other's throats last year and left it open for Long Run to take it up the hill?
So it does! That's really sweet lol. It was lovely to watch the race again, Wooly, thanks for posting.
I love it that people can make a case for Kauto winning when last year everyone was saying he should be retired!! Imagine if connections had of given in to public perception; Long Run would have hosed up in each of his races and it would have been a one horse race with him propably going off at some ridiculous odds!! This is the exact reason I love horse racing against all odds and all logic perhaps Kauto could definitely win the Gold Cup. I think if he does it'll be through an awesome ride from Ruby. The way I can see him beating Long Run is purely by putting pressure on Long Run's jumping if I were Ruby I'd make sure I'm directly in front of Long Run at every fence. Kauto can take off at fences so early and it seems to throw LR when he does. LR can have as much stamina as he likes but you can't make too many errors at Cheltenham.
Someone put up Hidden Cyclone for the RSA i think - he will not be going to the festival so save your dosh lads
Me GDC - cheers for the update pissed off now - and then find out Mcmanus has purchased my bumper bet and is sending it hurdling on Sunday FOOK OFF
Just watched the "Congratulations" bit on the video Wooly. Thanks for that. Never noticed it before but that is very sweet. Did Long Run congratulate Kauto at Kempton and/or Haydock?
ruby just needs to take it up with a circuit to go and really stretch them i do believe kauto star can win the gold cup no where near the same horse as last year much much better this term AND KAUTO STAR IS TURNING THE SCREW HERE
Just struck an interesting bet with Totesport - 16/1 on Grumeti to win the Champion Hurdle trial tomorrow and follow up in the real thing. I really like this fellow - a big, muscular, strong travelling type he is a bit like the Frankel of the juvenile hurdling division. He spredeagled a good field on debut and had them all well beaten last time at Newbury when very unluckily losing his footing after the second last. He looks an extremely talented animal and my first thought was to get on tonight for tomorrow's race BUT 13/8 tomorrow is probably fair but won't make me rich and he is already shorting for the Triumph (general 8/1 shot). I think he will be cut to clear favourite tomorrow if he wins well and that's what I'm counting on.
Nice bet Oddy I reckon. If he's serious about winning the Triumph then winning tomorrow must be on his agenda. Have to say I thought Baby Mix looked a beautiful animal at Cheltenham though when breezing past Hinterland. But I don't like the Triumph too much as antepost, I will watch the Adnonis Hurdle at Kempton and then sit down and have a good think.
Fair do's Toppy, I just really fancy him tomorrow and thought, rather than taking 13/8 for tomorrows race I'll take 16/1 for the double. If he doesn't win tomorrow he won't win the Triumph, but if he hoses up tomorrow I'm sat on a nice voucher
Thats what i mean mate, its a great way for bonus odds if you think he is the real deal. Very talentesm Smashing race tomorrow il weight up prices before the off. I want 5/2 on Baby Mix
Fookin hell. Thank the Lord I didn't do this. Yet to see the replay but possibly the strangest performance I have ever seen from a horse.
