25's is a massive price about Prospect Wells, I've took some this afternoon after hearing this espcially like Zen was saying come race day that will be massively slashed espcially when Nicholls gets a few firing in before Cheltenham and with Ruby probably on board. I couldn't believe his run in the Tolworth he was desperately off the pace turning in and usually he cruises into contention if he replicated any of his earlier season form he would have gone mightly close there. Im starting to like Simonsig at the prices 14/1 currently, Depending on weather he goes for this. I can't see the other option really unless they fancy the Albert Bartlett because I can't really see him reversing form with Fingal Bay at Cheltenham in the Neptune....
I actually disagree Oddy. I think he'll be far better suited to a more strongly run race given how powerfully he travels. I think the trip and the ground were all wrong for him at Sandown and it is a credit to his engine that he was still tanking entering the straight. I really think a proper fast run 2m on good ground will be right up his street. That Sandown form looks the best novice hurdle form around given that the pair of them came a along way clear of some decent animals. I wouldn't even say that it would be beyond Simonsig to reverse the form in the Neptune either. Better ground will put a greater emphasis on speed and I can see him travelling into the race far better than Fingal Bay. It is then just a question of who comes up the hill the stronger. I'll be backing him whichever race he goes to. I think he looks exceptionally exciting and I cannot wait to see him again. I also think, like Istabraq has said, that Fingal Bay is an out and out stayer. It might be ludicrous to suggest but the just might be done for a bit of toe by one in the Neptune. He should definitely be favourite because his form is top drawer but come good ground in March, he might just find one too quick. If Simonsig runs then he could be the one. Istabraq, Henderson has said that he won't go for the Albert Bartlett so it will be either the Supreme or the Neptune. He did state preference for the Neptune, but that was before Hobbs said Fingal Bay was heading that way so I hope that might prompt him to change course. I do think all the novice hurdles still look fairly open to some extent. Fingal Bay is obviously a dominant presence in the two staying races but aside from him it looks wide open. There could be something we haven't see/noticed yet lurking in the background which will come and win one.
I actually thought Fingal Bay quickened impressively in the Challow turning in and taking it up and then he idled being urged to find the line, I think he needs a quick pace espcially at the moment so the Neptune looks the perfect option for Me as they tend to dawdle in the Albert Bartlett. He's certainly a future Gold Cup horse though... Simonsig as good form over further than 2 miles, He's won a point to point in Ireland over 3 and all his best form in this country is over further than 2 miles saying that he won a Bumper over 2mile 2f and won impressively at Fairyhouse so hes got abit of toe. I can't see him beating Fingal Bay at Cheltenham, I like horses with form around Cheltenham and Fingal Bay won the Neptune Novice Hurdle back in November impressively there staying on very strongly up the hill and I actually thought Simonsig would win at Sandown as he does actually have form on soft ground in Ireland but Fingal Bay impressed Me that day and he looks very adaptable so at this moment in time Im counting Fingal Bay as a very good thing for Cheltenham unless like you say Zenyatta something out of the cloud pops up... Anyway back to the supreme, Prospects Wells E/W at 25/1 as been My only bet up to now
Forget Captain Conan for the Supreme, how on earth he is 6 points shorter than Colour Squadron with some firms I dont know. If that last race was at Cheltenham, Colour Squadron would have won 5 lengths hands and heels. I like Cash And Go but dont think he is good enough and wont get his ground. Cant have Steps To Freedom, liked him earlier in the season but the form looks weak. Simonsig travelled well against Fingal Bay but cant see him winning a battle up the hill, same goes for Darlan. Colour Squadron, Cinders And Ashes and Montbazon are the three im looking at.
Stats, shmats' is my default maxim, but it's in the rules that whenever doing an ante-post preview there must always be some statistical analysis, and my research threw up a beauty; only it turns out it's not a beauty, lacking much originality or relevance, but I'm shoehorning it in anyway to give my workings at least a sheen of credibility. You (I to be precise) might have thought that the top two-mile novice at the Festival would favour the ex-Flat horses, but apparently it doesn't. Of the last ten Supreme Novice winners, only Ebaziyan (40/1) and Arcalis (20/1) had done their grounding on the Flat. That nugget isn't exactly gold, though, considering, of the ten main Supreme Novice contenders for this year, only Galileo's Choice has done his grounding on the Flat. Still, one down. We're in the market for burgling value, and there's none in Darlan, whose row of 1s mask some pretty flimsy form. Two down. The Tolworth Hurdle, which Colour Squadron generously gave to Captain Conan, wasn't very good. Four down. Montbazon was beaten by Colour Squadron. Five down. Tetlami is seemingly further down the Henderson pecking order than both Darlan and Captain Conan. Six down. The Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas won by Cash And Go was arguably less of a Grade 1 than the Tolworth. And then there were three... What crime can we pin on Steps To Freedom? Fraud, perhaps. It's very circumstantial, wholly unsubstantiated and probably unfair, but I'm beginning to wonder whether Steps To Freedom is a top-class horse or just doing an impression of a top-class horse. He's convincing enough so far, more Bremner than Yarwood, and he'll keep it up for most of the Supreme, in which he'll travel like the proverbial W of G, but, for me, there's still a question of what's really under the bonnet. Think back to Cheltenham in November when he scrambled home from Prospect Wells and Ericht, two horses who've subsequently looked a bit soft themselves. More research: on Timeform ratings, the average winning performance in the Supreme is 147. Simonsig is already rated 153. It looks a very solid 153. He's 153 because leading novice Fingal Bay is 156, and Simonsig matched him for nearly two-and-a-half miles at Sandown, when the pair finished clear of Barbatos, whose form is on a par with most of the other Supreme Novice contenders. This should be where the 'but' part comes in, only I'm struggling to find one. Dropping to two miles, in what's invariably a strongly-run two miles for the Supreme, promises to suit him well, and Simonsig probably needs backing - he ought to be outright favourite. Cats, bucks, the red-eyed tree frog, Phillips Idowu, the battery in my Skoda, Tony Thompson when the store alarm goes off, and Cinders And Ashes; all things that jump really well. Since he clouted the fifth on his hurdling debut at Ascot, which cost him any chance against Broadbackbob that day, Cinders And Ashes has been exceptionally slick to the point that you'd notice, when it's not something you generally notice in hurdles races. That will count for an awful lot in the Supreme. Easy wins at Aintree and Haydock have been a taster of what's to come, remembering also his ability in bumpers (fifth in the main event at Cheltenham), and if he does what I think he'll do in the Rossington Main back at Haydock on Saturday, a race rebranded as the Supreme Trial, then he'll be a shorter price for the Supreme than he is now. With respect to Simonsig, but not much else apart from Simonsig, Cinders And Ashes is the one. Give a man some knocked-off cheese, feed him for a day. Teach a man to burgle value, feed him for a lifetime.
Thanks for posting Wooly, I mzst admit I am having a bit of a lean towards Cinders and Ashes myself. I remember him running Keys to a head in a good bumper last season and he has done really well this season. I also full agree with the comment above on the flashy flat types - you need a stoutly bred one to win at Cheltenham. Good post
Cheers oddy! Like you this has swayed my selection alil bit too and have just had a small ante post bet on Cinder & Ashes @ 16/1, using my 100/1 and my 16/1 winners money lol
Just found these too- (dont mean alot I know but are intresting) 13 of the last 15 winners won last time out 8 of the last 20 winners had one or two previous starts over hurdles 11 of the last 12 winners ran in the previous 45 days 33 of the last 37 winners were aged five or six Only one four-year-old winner since 1973 The Irish have won 7 of the last 11 renewals Only 3 favourites won in the last 20 renewals 3 of the last 16 horses to start at 3/1 or shorter have won 6 of the last 14 winners started in the front two of the betting 4 of the 5 previous years' Champion Bumper winners have been beaten (last four years)
Just a pointer about the Willie Mullins approach to the Supreme. In 2010, Flat Out had just one run over hurdles, on February 17th, where he won a maiden before going on to finish 5th behind Menorah. 2007 winner Ebaziyan ran in mid January, 2nd in a maiden, and then won a maiden in February, before taking the glory at Cheltenham at a massive 40/1. So even though his novice string looks a little suspect at the moment, don't go totally writing him off. Look out for any novice runners in maidens over the next few weeks. On a side note: Did anyone see Vulcanites win yesterday? Was he impressive, can he turn form with Tetlami?
I think many are looking at the Supreme and struggling to make the race out, but I think it's the shock there's no shortie everyone is raving about. We've had Cousin Vinnie, Dunguib and Cue Card that the market has centred around in previous years and they all got turned over, I agree with Toppy above, it could be that we haven't seen the winner on a racecourse just yet....
This is one of the trickiest races to solve!! Prospect Wells was a confident selection when i took 20s BUT his last run was too bad to be true, he has an operation and hopefully we will get a run for our money! Montbazon and Simonsig are the 2 that have the form but Cinders and Ashes is well thought of, a race to watch the market
Had the privilege of a morning at Seven Barrows yesterday and Simonsig will almost certainly run in the Neptune. The stable is very confident that the Sandown form will be reversed with Fingal Bay. They found a reason for why he weakened late on. He has loads of pace and will stay the 2m5f well. I advise a good bet at the 14/1 offered by Skybet EW. I can't for the life of me see him out of the 3.
I've spent a good hour or so poring over the form of the fancied runners and I still can't get away from Tetlami. The key to him is clearly the ground and I can imagine Henderson will go straight to Cheltenham with him - he has stated that he won't run him on unsuitably heavy ground. I won't back him ante post though as I don't think he will come in much from 16s before the day of the race - he probably won't have a run beforehand. Zen did they say anything on Tetlami when you were at Seven Barrows?
Many thanks for the update Zen I thought Simonsig looked all class and I think he will continue improving. Fingal Bay had the better finish that day but the way Simonsig travelled was superb and you would have to say, he ought to be there or thereabouts coming to the business end of the race. Oddy I keep looking at the form and I am finding no answers, or indeed pointers as to who might be going where! I think Tetlami has done absolutelty nothing wrong. Thing is though I'd want assurances about who Henderson has lined up for a tilt at the Supreme. Simonsig looks Neptune bound, Captain Conan has drifted to 80s on Betfair for the Supreme, Mono Man might be his best one so far but has no word on him at the moment (looked to have Colour Squadron beat before hitting the last on debut), and Darlan looks to be overrated. Nightmare to work out this seasons Supreme. On a side note RE: the Mullins challengers- Did they give any reason for Sous Les Cieux's poor performance LTO?
The lowdown is as follows . . . Simonsig - Machine and has a cracking chance in the Neptune (he would in the Supreme too but the Neptune is his target). His blend of pace and stamina will be ideal for the race and NH is very confident that the Sandown form with Fingal Bay will be reversed - "He'll definitely beat that Hobbs horse". There was a reason why he didn't win at Sandown (though he wouldn't divulge what) and he is a cracking EW bet and it sounds like they expect him to win. I think he is the best of the lot. "Binocular is good, Oscar Whisky is good, Simonsig is very good". Tetlami - He is worthy of his place in the line-up but they would be surprised if he was good enough. He is good but not exceptional. Captain Conan - Big and really weak and very much a project for the future. Quotes were something like "I see Captain Conan hasn't filled out overnight". His win in the Tolworth appears more to do with the weakness of the opposition than his ability at the moment. Very much a chaser of the future and he shouldn't be running at this year's Festival, but the owners might force his hand. All The Aces - He was very keen on this one. He is certain that he will reverse the form with Prospect Wells because "even Captain Conan managed to beat him". I think his mark of 134 looks very very attractive and he might be of interest in a handicap if allowed to take his chance, or a decent outsider for the Supreme. Will run again and then decide his target afterwards. Darlan - He was absolutely livid about him being put up 9lbs for beating Jump City, especially as I watched the Chepstow handicap where Jump City was thrashed with him in the pub! That suggests to me that the handicap route was the plan. If he was a Supreme winner I doubt they would be that bothered about his mark in the grand scheme of things. Mono Man - He's been off for a while and I didn't get much on him. However, he did keep on pointing out his brother which must be a good sign. Expect him to run again and might be a nice dark horse for the Supreme. Molotof - Nothing on him really though I suspect he is just good rather than exceptional. Neptune looks likely considering BG said he wanted further after his last effort and he wouldn't shake a stick at Simonsig. There is no way that Captain Conan is anywhere near the required level for the Supreme if the yard is to be believed. That must throw question marks over the form of Colour Squadron, Montbazon etc. All their form ties in and if CC isn't good enough then I doubt any of the others are. That said it does look a weak division so it might only require a below par effort to win. Captain Conan is very much a horse for the future and not this season. Think that's all.
Great insight Zen, honestly very much appreciated. Yeah I have accepted that I've done my speculative money on Captain Conan (and for all intents and purposes, Samain) but I was so impressed with him on debut. To me, despite his overall size, he looked like he hadn't filled it out,m and I was hoping in terms of my Supreme AP bet, that he was a little undercooked for that race and that we might see a great big powerhouse in March, but I have to accept that Henderson sees the long-term future of the horse and I will always understand and agree with a horses long-term welfare. It is an impressive engine he has, he stayed with Colour Squadron, who I suspect is a really solid yardstick, and yet is 'weak', green, and built for chasing! So he has a nice engine to take with him into a novice chase campaign next season and I hope he has an injury free career Really exciting horse. Mono Man I think, if fit, will run in the Supreme. I hope he goes in relatively unfancied at nice odds, a bit like a Sprinter Sacre or Spirit Son from last year. Any discussion around other divisions- novice chasers/Long Run/Triumph hurdles?
Many thanks for the feedback Zen, really appreciated When you look at what Henderson had in the race last year it's difficult to believe he hasn't got a very strong hand for the Supreme at the moment. I can't help wondering whether there are one or two we haven't seen run yet??
