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Daily Thread Sunday 1st January 2012- HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by woolcombe-folly007, Jan 1, 2012.

  1. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    YAY! I have written the 1st new years thread :D after a quiet new years eve with the other half (stayed in as she is pretty much ready to pop.) There will be a lot of sore heads waking up looking at todays racing, so Im here to my your job easier lol, my selections for tomorrow ( I will post my competition selections officially tomorrow. But from 1st look at the cheltenham card I like the look of......

    13.05- SONOFVIC- A bit of an unknown quantity really, and we dont actually know how good he really is. Only two lengths behind Grands Crus at Newbury, really made him work alot harder than anything else this season, he looks every inch a great chaser and is just preferred to Invictus, who himself has created a fine impression in winning ordinary novice chases at Hereford and Plumpton. I was looking at sonix but he wins he has not jumped cleanly at all, and needs to raise his game now in better company.

    13.35- Richard Sundance & Sawyer E/W Richard Sundance 2nd in this last year when finding Blazing Bailey too good but the big factor now is carrying 7lbs less weight when in this last year. He also looked pretty decent when 4th behind the Welsh GN winner Le Beau Bai on heavy ground over the same distance. And should do one better than last year. I wrote up a small article on hello bud as I didnt initally like him, but just feel he is alittle to heavy on the weights for the old boy. The Sawyer- this race should be right up his street, carrying a fairly low weight, has been a while since in the winners enclosure but posted his best effort for a while last time out when finishing 5th to the Minack at ascot, but not a definiate if he can carry that forward. But if he does will be a worth a small e/w.

    14.10 Ghizao Or Calgary Bay & Hells Bay E/W A very tough race Calgary Bay may be worth punt, although has not won for over 2 years, form is getting better. This proven when 5th here last time out 28 days ago. And connections have high hopes for him in this as is carrying a lighter weight, and has not got in the handicappers grasp as Havingotascoobydo & Hectors choice have and they are carrying heavier weights then they should do. Then we have ghiazo- Twice defeated arkle champ CC last year and if the same the form will have no problem but has had jumping issues and have not been smooth like when beating Captain Chris, Nicholls has said he has done alot of work on his jumping since when 6th in here last time out (1 place behind Calgary Bay) and if he has then should win this. Hells Bay was disappointing when pulled up last time out going off favourite, was his 1st outing after injury and would have needed the run. He is a class performer and has won a couple of Group 2 before he got injured, again if finds anywhere near the sort of form will be right up there in the end.

    14.35- Oscargo Powered up the hill last time out when beating Kayf Aramis last time out and will do the same agin- perhaps having a nicholls/walsh quickfire double.

    15.20 Oscar Whiskey- Should be way too good for the others , and will not find any problems here. Simple routine win :D

    Anyway Im off to bed, last 2 write ups got tired so... any way Happy New Year Everyone may 2012 be a very profitable for each and every one of us.....
     
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  2. Islanderpei

    Islanderpei Member

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    happy new year woolly and all other members, just getting ready to go out and bring in the new year.Good luck to all in the new year
     
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  3. Grizzly

    Grizzly Active Member

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    Happy New Year all.

    Chelt 2.10 Duke of Lucca each way for me, seems to have taken well to fences and despite his inexperience carrying 10st 1lb and having Dicky Johnson up top are huge plusses for me.

    Ex 1.45 State Benefit. Henderson/Tinkler partnership in great form of late and this one travelled well when falling 3 out in his chase debut the other week, this doesn't look a strong race and I like this ones chances.

    A word for Hello Bud who runs in the 1.35 at Cheltenham, NTDs charge is now 14 and still racing at an incredibly high level - only 12 months ago he won the Becher chase at Aintree. I love watching these old timers run with the same enthusiasm they had 5 years ago, I guess if a horse still enjoys their racing then why not let them compete, though I'd hope their owners would swap any prize money for the guarantee they return home safe.
    He can't win but I'd love to see him run well.

    Good luck all
     
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  4. Dancingbraveforever

    Dancingbraveforever Well-Known Member

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    Happy New Year Wooly and good luck with the baby
     
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  5. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    Yep, hope goes well with the bub Wooly, no calling him/her after a racehorse though. <whistle>
     
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  6. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Has baby arrived yet Wooly?
     
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  7. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks all :D, its due in a couple of weeks so could come anytime now.

    I was thinking of the name Denman lol only joking<laugh>
     
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  8. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    #8
  9. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    LOL that is ridiculous!!
     
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  10. heisenburg

    heisenburg Well-Known Member

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    Follow the fat northern lads at Musscleboro today, Glee Richie Mac and Hughsey all have winners today and Wilson can clean up at Catt

    Stay FROSTY All and wooly all the best to you and your family hope all is well and you ready for sleepless nights, you could be doing the thread every day for a while now !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
    #10

  11. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    Everythings good at the mo, I know its going to kill me I love my sleep, but will be worth it!! Yep I prbly will do Heis writing them up at like 3 in the morning; lol
     
    #11
  12. Ardent1965

    Ardent1965 Well-Known Member

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    Happy New Year not a bad days racing!
     
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  13. sparkymarky

    sparkymarky Member

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    Happy New year everybody! Hope I have a good start to 2012...

    Cheltenham:
    Leg 1: Jump City (3) / Jimbill (7) / Hard To Swallow (11)
    Leg 2: Sonovic (5)
    Leg 3: Prophete De Guye (9) / Checkerboard (11) / Etxalar (12)
    Leg 4: Hidden Keel (5) / Calgary Bay (6) / Havingotascoobydoo (12)
    Leg 5: Oscargo (4)
    Leg 6: Poungach (4)
    27 @ 60p
    £16.20

    Musselburgh:
    Leg 1: Janets Pearl (9)
    Leg 2: Hurricane Jack (1)
    Leg 3: Bourne (1)
    Leg 4: Soprano (2)
    Leg 5: Desert Cry (2)
    Leg 6: Quicuyo (3)
    1 @ £13
    £13


    Singles Bets:

    Sonovic 1.05 Cheltenham (NAP)
    He gave Grand Crus something to think about in a hot race at Newbury. The winner won the grade 1 at Kempton last week, and providing the selections' jumping is up to scratch, he should be able to go one better and land this contest. 13/10 Sportingbet

    Prophete De Guye (EW) 1.35 Cheltenham
    Didn't fire when very disappointing in the London National at Sandown. This is more his grade, and with a very strong pace looking likely, this will play into his hands for a flying finish at the death and at leat sneak into the frame. 14/1 Various

    Golden Chieftain 2.55 Exeter
    A good winner of a Novice chase last time out, and further improvement is expected. This is a stronger line-up, but he is on an upward curve, and should be able to follow up if in the same form. 7/4 Various
     
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  14. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Good day fellow forumites and a happy new year. Feeling decidedly fragile today but am still looking forward to a good meeting at Cheltenham
     
    #14
  15. rainbowview

    rainbowview Well-Known Member

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    Happy new year all - this from my blog so feel free to ignore the ****ty write ups and points but don't forget to congratulate me if they win ;)

    12.55 Fairyhouse - 1pt win HOT PROSPECT 4/1 (BOG)

    This is a maiden hurdle I am really looking forward to watching and as there are a few that have
    the potential to be decent hurdlers in time this allows a good price for hurdling debutant Hot Prospect. The current favourite is the Willie Mullins trained Tennis Cap, I backed this one on its debut for current connections having shown promise in a couple of bumpers at Le Lion-d&#8217;Angers he seemed to be a fair price for his hurdling debut at 9/2. He shaped with plenty of encouragement finishing 3rd that day but I have this down as potentially a better race than the one he contested that day and whilst he is entitled to have come on for the run I have to be against him at 5/2 today.

    Another interesting recruit to hurdling is the Charles O&#8217;Brien trained Double Double.
    Connections have been incredibly patient with this one in terms of not rushing to send him hurdling. He has contested 7 bumpers in his career so far winning two finishing runner up twice and third once. Although simply outclassed in the Cheltenham Bumper he still performed with credit finishing 11th of 24 after a 290 day absence. There is no doubt that he was disappointing at the Curragh 18 days later when finishing 10th of 15 but beaten by 67 lengths. He returned to the track in October and proved he retains plenty of his ability when finishing 3rd at Tipperary but blew a golden opportunity of getting back in the winners enclosure on his next and latest start when failing to win as the 4/5 fav (finished 2nd). Whilst it is obvious the horse has ability he is becoming frustrating to follow and I think connections have switched to hurdling at the right time. He is feared along with Woodville Lady.

    Getting on to the selection now HOT PROSPECT. Today is his hurdling debut and he is an exciting recruit to the NH code. There is no doubting that this horse has a touch of class and a flat rating of 110 is enough to prove that. This horse contested 4 Group races during his career on the flat with Michael Jarvis who is sadly no longer with us. The horse was with Roger Varian once Michael Jarvis had retired and he went on to compete in a further two group races this proving connections obviously still thought highly of him. Although he just fell short of winning at Group level on the flat his best performances were when 2nd to Dux Scholar in a listed heat at Newbury
    and when finishing 3rd to Class is Class in a Group 3 at Haydock. The same track where he last got his head in front when winning a class 2 handicap. He was purchased by current connections for 70,000 gns and has been gelded since. An exciting recruit to hurdling and worth chancing at the prices on debut.


    1.25 Fairyhouse &#8211; 1pt win FRISCO DEPOT 7/2 (BOG)


    My only other bet at Fairyhouse this afternoon is Frisco Depot. I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised to see him get beat today to be honest but a chance is taken that on the best of his form he is entitled to win this and also that in my opinion he is going to be a better chaser than he was hurdler.
    His victory over Shot From The Hip at Naas is decent form and he perhaps bettered that when finishing 4th of 6 in the Champion Novice hurdle at Punchestown in May. Although that form has a bit of an inconsistent look about it with First Lieutenant finishing only third and in my opinion the best horse in the race So Young finishing last of the 6 runners we can take nothing
    away from Frisco Depot who didn&#8217;t run spectacularly well but has run to a solid level of form.

    I just feel there are doubts in regards to his opposition today especially Lios A Choill he is a horse I really like to be honest but I have got to stop backing him as he isn&#8217;t performing as well as I thought he would especially after JP McManus&#8217;s purchase of the horse. He shaped well enough on his chasing debut but for me doesn&#8217;t deserve to be favourite. Aitmatov was once a very good horse but is no longer the force of old (156 hurdler at his best). He is still got ability but is 11 years of age now and could well be vulnerable to an improver. Dantes King is priced up around 4/1 but his third to Up The Beat is modest form and he needs to improve on that.



    12.30 Cheltenham 1pt win ONE TERM (7/1 BOG) & 0.5pt E.W ALLTHEKINGSHORSES (25/1 BOG)



    I think this is a cracking race to get the Cheltenham card started this afternoon and I am hoping for good runs from my two selections. I will start off with the more confident of the two ONE TERM. This is a horse I really like and is obviously still open to further improvement. He started his career back in April finishing 3rd in a Hereford bumper before going one better at Ffos Las 18 days later when runner up to short priced favourite Top Of The Range. After this he was given a 186 day break and has done nothing but improve since his return. He got off the mark at the third time of asking when winning a Chepstow bumper comfortably before putting up a very good performance to land the listed bumper at this track back in November with the re-opposing Jimbill in second. The selection then went on to make his hurdling debut at Hereford for which he was made the 4/5 fav. He finished runner up to 25/1 shot Ballyrock and whilst that may sound disappointing that horse went on to finish 2nd in the Challow hurdle yesterday running the high class Fingal Bay to a length. Although Fingal Bay did idle and is almost certainly worth more than the length would suggest Ballyrock ran a blinder yesterday and certainly boosted the form of One Term. A quick pointer the 4th that day (One Term hurdling debut) OFF THE GROUND finished just 5 lengths behind the front two in 4th and makes his handicap debut off just 111 today he could be just about the best handicapped horse in training but is a bit short at 11/10 for the blog but I will still back him. I do feel One Term is worth a chance at 7/1.

    My other selection All The Kings Horses has been written off by many following a shocking run at Newcastle a race for which he was sent off the 13/8 fav. He had previously made a winning debut for his current connections getting the better of a highly regarded Paul Nicholls horse (Rocky Creek). They pulled 10 lengths clear of the third horse Grand Vision who has since finished 2nd behind a highly regarded Emma Lavelle horse (Gullinbursti). The third home Lovcen went on to win by 17 lengths next time out. So the race is working out fine and considering the selection had a valid excuse at Newcastle (struggled with breathing) he may be worth another chance now in the first time tongue tie. At 25/1 I will have a small E.W bet on him.



    1.05 Cheltenham 2pts win SOLIX (6/1 BOG)

    A really good renewal of the Dipper and I honestly feel that SOLIX is a bit overpriced at around the 6/1 mark. He hasn&#8217;t been foot perfect over his fences so far but seemed to have learnt a bit from his debut at Ascot when winning over C&D last month. I have always been a big fan of those with Course experience at Cheltenham running against those without it and for me Sonofvic is too short at 5/4. Obviously I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised to see him win this but he is still very inexperienced and let&#8217;s not forget he was receiving 7lbs from Grand Crus at Newbury. That is certainly very good form anyways but Champion Court was 10 lengths behind the same horse at this track when trying to concede 5lbs making it an impossible task. It probably could have been further if Tom Scudamore wanted it to be but I am sure you get my point. Invictus has done nothing wrong over fences so far and has jumped superbly in two victories. This is much more competitive though and I am unsure if he has the class to worry Sonofvic or Solix.
     
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  16. heisenburg

    heisenburg Well-Known Member

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    Going against RV and Willie !!!!!!!!!!!!! and heres why

    Woodville Lady (IRE)
    Showed plenty of promise on debut when staying on well in the closing stages to take third behind favourite Reizovic in a 25 runner two mile maiden hurdle at Naas. Plenty of scope for improvement, and looks a nice prospect.


    From Irishracing.com, i like this tipster and h is usually there or there abouts
    took 5/2 bog with pp
     
    #16
  17. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    Time is running out for Leagues selections.
    GP
    Cliffy.
    George.
    Dex.
    Beaten.
    Ista.
    Smokin.
    Ches.
    Bluesky.

    Getting late guys.
     
    #17
  18. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Tried to be a bit inventive with my selections today so here goes:

    12.30 Cheltenham Master of the Game - this from Barry Geraghty's blog on ATR: There&#8217;s no doubt in my mind that I&#8217;ve made the right decision because in going to Cheltenham I&#8217;ll be able to partner an exciting ex-pointer, MASTER OF THE GAME (12.30), on his debut under rules in the Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle. He is a lovely horse that pleased me when I schooled him a few weeks back. He won an Irish point to point when he was handled by Sam Curling who used to work for Nicky a few years back and Kelvin Hughes bought him at the Cheltenham November sales. He&#8217;s a fine big horse that has been keeping good company at home and working well. Although he&#8217;s won a point he&#8217;s certainly not a slow horse and two and a half miles is the ideal starting point for him. He is a chaser in the making but will make his mark over hurdles and he&#8217;s a horse that I like a lot, has class.

    1.05 Cheltenham Invictus - has a tremendous jumping technique, similar to Master Minded at his best, and has been foot perfect in 2 starts in lesser company to date. This is the acid test of his festival credentials and I am expecting a massive performance today to thrust him to the head of the market for the Jewson Novices Chase.

    1.25 Fairyhouse Banjaxed Girl - can't fathom why she is the outsider of the field here, she was a highly talented hurdler for the Twister and achieved a rating of 153 over the smaller obstacles. I must say I've never heard of her new trainer though so that might explain her price here <laugh>. Speculative punt.

    3.50 Cheltenham Flaming Arrow - Kevin Ryan's was just headed in the shadow of the post on debut so gets in here without a winners penalty. Plenty of good looking sorts in this one though and it usually takes a bit of winning (Keys took it last year) but Flaming Arrow looks a decent value bet.

    4.00 Exeter Unex Degas - another speculative one but this expensive son of High Chaparral can take this for the Pipe yard, who had a good bumper winner for me yesterday.

    Best of luck everyone <ok>
     
    #18
  19. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Looks like you didn't go out last night then RV if you managed to type all that up <cheers>
     
    #19
  20. Zenyatta

    Zenyatta Active Member

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    Lads this Henderson horse is a real smasher in the paddock. Looks a cut above a good looking bunch.
     
    #20

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