The mini Arkle - Tuesday 27th December- Kempton

With all the excitement of the Boxing Day feast, Tuesdays colossal novice contest has been over-shadowed a little. When was the last time that 3 out of the top four in the betting for the Arkle actually met so early in the season? Throw in For Non So and his form lines with Al Ferof and we get the most informative novice clash outside of a Spring festival I can remember. I think the respective trainers and owners should be commended (assuming they all turn up as I remember a Peddlers V Al Ferof clash not happening after being heavily hyped in November) for allowing such a fantastic race to take place. It would be easy to 'live the dream' so to speak and completely avoid one another until the big day, but more clashes like this early in the season surely helps the sport. Also if your horse is clearly not good enough to win the Arkle because something else is superior then why not find out now where you stand? So what do we have:-

Peddler's Cross: A horse good enough to give Hurricane Fly a run over hurdles. His two performances so far have been almost perfect, his jumping looks top draw and he has a mixture of speed and stamina that should make the 2 miles at Cheltenham perfect for him. The big question for me is, is he as good as Donald McCain clearly thinks he is? For me he is often looked at unfairly as a bit of a grinder and I can’t believe that some people think a horse good enough to finish second in a champion hurdle (miles clear of Oscar Whiskey in third) might lack pace. However if he did have any shortcomings in this area, Kempton is likely to expose them more than the Cheltenham hill might.

Sprinter Sacre: Very much a talking horse and I wouldn’t be surprised if the hype associated with him sees him start favourite on Tuesday. Has always looked a chaser and travelled very much like the winner of the Supreme Novice last season. His debut over fences was visually very exciting and he looked a potential star. However bowling along on your own exuberantly around Doncaster is one thing, facing other top class horses and being asked to take a gut check is altogether different. The big question is what happens if he is neck and neck with Peddlers Cross jumping the last and he has to fight to win his race? Will he find something off the bridle? Maybe Kempton will suit him much better than Cheltenham might.

Menorah: In many ways might be the forgotten horse in the race. He jumped okay on his debut at Exeter before jumping one too big and hitting the deck. His performance back over hurdles against Grandouet would be more of a worry for me as he found very little when asked to go and win his race. Well beaten by Peddlers Cross in last seasons CH but may have much more to come over fences, although it may well just be he lacks the scope of the other two.

For Non So:- Inevitably he will be judged on his close second to Al Ferof and the direct form line comparisons between the Nicholls's horse and other leading protagonists in this race will be fascinating. Has to be respected as a potential player based on this run but may well have been flattered by that and it would be a surprise if he had the gears or class to go with the other three.

Synopsis:-

A race of infinite possibilities and potential outcomes. Will one of these horses hammer the others without coming off the bridle and a potential superstar be forged? It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that the winner is all of a sudden inserted into the Queen Mother betting should this happen? My own long term view is that Peddler's Cross is the more likely Arkle winner at the current time and has the best overall back catalogue of form on what we've actually seen on a race course. However Sprinter Sacre is a horse of great potential and might turn this thinking on its head on Tuesday.

 

I thought the Peddlers Cross hype bubble was going to last until Cheltenham, but it seems this Tuesday will be the day the bubble bursts, and I expect it to be burst convincingly.

Sprinter Sacre is the real deal, I have not seen a horse as impressive on chasing debut. He will out jump and out class Peddlers Cross with ease.

It is time to bet like men on Sprinter Sacre, mark my words

 

Big call Shergar.

Sprinter Sacre looked exceptionally keen again, though did stay strongly.

I suspect Peddlers will get the better of him at Cheltenham, regardless of what happens this week.

 

After the beating Sprinter Sacre gives him on Tuesday, Peddlers Cross will be back over hurdles, quicker than tramps on chips

 

Shergar, I thought you were a man for form in the book as it where, and not 'hype'.

At the moment Sprinter Sacre appears the definition of a 'hype horse' in my eyes. He was a very good hurdler but nothing exceptional and his crowning as the 2nd coming seems a little premature to say the least. For some reason the fact that Henderson has said that he was always going to make a better chaser than hurdler has meant that people have assumed that he will be the real deal over fences. His debut, to my eye at least, was very good, but I was far more taken with the quick and neat jumping shown by Peddlers Cross than his over-exuberant style.

For some unknown reason, the fact that the very same comments apply to Peddlers Cross, a far superior hurdler, seems to have been ignored. He has always been a chaser in the making and I am quite sure that he will be every bit as good over fences as he was over hurdles, if not better. I find it ludicrous that he is written off in some quarters. His jumping has been foot perfect on both starts, he has pace, he has stamina and I see no reason why he cannot go to the top over fences.

Menorah was near the top over hurdles but ultimately feel short at the final hurdle and I suspect the same may be true over fences. He jumped well on his debut before unshipping Dickie Johnson but his lacklustre run in the International must be a concern to his supporters.

For Non Stop ran Al Ferof close at Sandown and is clearly a smart prospect. He wasn't as good as the others over hurdles and I suspect he may be flattered by the Sandown result. I'm not entirely convinced Al Ferof is a proper Arkle type because he looks all about Stamina. The steady pace that day was hardly in his favour. That said it would be folly to dismiss him.

Peddlers Cross has to concede 2lbs to Sprinter Sacre and 6lbs to Menorah and For Non Stop. Will that be enough to stop him? In my view, no. My one concern is that the speed orientated track will not play to his strengths and conceding weight all round this will be a tough ask. I fully expect him to be up to the challenge. If he does win this then I think he will be a very warm order for the Arkle because the Cheltenham test is likely to be far more in his favour than this. Until I see something that looks better, or he gets his colours lowered, I will continue to support him. I think he is an exceptional horse and I have never been as excited to see a horse go chasing before. He was bred for chasing and anything he achieved over hurdles was a bonus. This is his game and I think he will go right to the top.

As a side note, if Peddlers Cross runs, which it seems he will, then I wouldn't be surprised to see Henderson miss this with Sprinter Sacre. Fair play if he lets him take his chance but I doubt it is in the horses interests to have such a hard race at this stage of the season. If they all show up then it will be a cracking race to look forward to. It might be said that it's a little too good because it will surely answer most of the Arkle questions, somewhat reducing the anticipation for March.

 

I'm not sure it really matters who wins on Tuesday it won't have any affect on the Arkle result look at last year Captain Chris was beaten by Ghizao and Medermit but then won the Arkle!!

I'll be backing Peddlers all the way to the festival no matter the result. I agree with Zenyatta that Sprinter Sacre won't turn up though

 

I have to agreet with you on backing him all the way to the festival- unlike menorah imo he hasnt shown any fragility!!

 

Menorah is doubtful with Hobbs preferring an easier target at Taunton instead - Story.

This is all starting to look very fragile indeed. It could easily turn into a cake-walk for the mighty Peddlers Cross!

 

Hobbs has realised menorah isnt the class chaser he was hoping and that he would get trounced by PC!! and yes it will turn in to a stroll in the park for him! Spirit Sacre is just a hype horse and hasnt proven himself! this will be his 1st big test imo! But I think PC will have way too much for him! PC to win all the way and at this years festival!

 

Don't write Menorah off yet. He had travelled all over Sam Winner before unseating and might be a good chase recruit still.


Peddlers Cross has not been asked to extend on his two starts and I feel there is tonnes left in the tank for the Arkle, fitness permitting.



Sprinter Sacre is a very talented young horse but he is very very keen and I think that might cost him a mistake. Peddlers looks economical so far and I have to say he looks destined for 3m chasing, as does Al Ferof.

 

I've seen nothing over fences from either to suggest that with time, either couldn't be a fantastic horse.

In my opinion this time out Sprinter Sacre would take a beating from PC, but I think with more experience and time, there's no reason that wouldn't be reversed in future.

I Have seen enough from Menorah to suggest that he hasn't got the same level of potential.

 

just realized that peddlers cross goes right handed for the first time ever.

i was impressed with for non stops last run.they went a good pace for a novice chase and he stayed on strongly and think he put in another big effort in this.

 

Zenyatta....I don't realy get your point. What has PC actually beaten in his 2 starts over fences? You could probably argue the same of Sprinter Sacre, but atleast Sprinter Sacre won impressively, hammering them by 24 lenghs, without even coming off the Bridle.

PC has won his 2 races by 4 and 8 lenghs respectively, so Sprinter Sacres one start over fences was won by double the distance of both of PC starts combined.

As for the jumping there realy is no contest, Peddlers Cross jumps well enough, but for a horse who has had previous point to point experience that is to be expected, though Sprinter Sacre is something else he pinged pretty much every fence at Doncaster.

Sprinter Sacre has had no previous experience over fences, so where as Peddlers Cross may have reached his peak, Sprinter Sacre is still improving, and if he finds any improvement on his impressive debut, then he will laugh at Peddlers Cross on Tuesday

 

Peddlers has absolutely stacks in hand. He has cantered round on his first two starts. He is rarely ever impressive in minor races (he was very workmanlike in his Champion Hurdle prep), yet at Cheltenham, when he was spot on for the race, he just upped his game for the opposition and got within a lengthof Hurricane Fly, who is one of the best hurdlers for a long time.

I actually think Kempton will play to Sprinter Sacre's strengths though, it is flat and his extravagant jumping and speed can come to the fore.


Peddlers Cross in an uphill battle at Cheltenham though is a different challenge.


If Peddlers Cross has peaked in two educational runs over fences, I'll eat my own face.

 

Shergar that post is barely worth a response but respond I will.

The comments for his two wins this season have been "cantered clear run in" and "easily".

The last day at Bangor he beat a Grade 1 winning Hurdler rated 148 at his peak without coming off the steel in an exceptionally fast time (as was Sprinter Sacre'se debut I might add). His jumping has also been electric on both starts. He was far better over hurdles that Sprinter Sacre and until I see any evidence whatsoever that he will not be better over fences I will continue to support him.

Sprinter Sacre is an exciting horse but how you can dismiss Peddlers Cross in such a manner is frankly laughable. He is the most exciting horse to go chasing in years and I fully expect him to win on Tuesday before taking the Arkle. If he is going to be beaten this year then Tuesday is the day because Kempton is unlikely to be his ideal track. That said he is not exactly short of a gear or two either. It just means that Sprinter Sacre won't be beaten as far.

You seem to change your tune to suit what it is your trying to say. One minute it is all about having 'proven form' and then the next the epitome of a hype horse is the selection.

 

Peddlers Cross would wipe the floor with both Sprinter Sacre and Menorah. He was the only horse capable of putting up a fight to Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle, He jumps beautifully and is by far the classiest horse in the race. Sprinter Sacre couldn't even last up the hill at Cheltenham so if Peddlers Cross does turn the race on Tuesday into a cakewalk like I expect him to do imagine what he'll do to him in the Arkle at Cheltenham, Al Ferof is a classy horse and dismissed Sprinter Sacre in the Supreme, But I don't think he could mix it with Peddlers. For Me he is the most exciting novice chaser about at the moment and I fully expect him to go unbeaten all the way to Cheltenham were he will take the Arkle...