As usual, put a line through the cavalry charge handicaps and the juvenile races. So that is four down but leaves the nightmare that will be the Commonwealth Cup cavalry charge as there is no way of knowing how they are going to split and whether the race is going to be won by something coming off a suicidal pace that finishes off all the front runners by the two furlong pole. The short-priced favourite Venetian Sun should be able to sit off the pace and win this as last year’s Albany winner is clearly the best horse in the race so I see Clifford Lee doing exactly what he did last June as long as he picks the right group to follow from stall 13.
Really the only question in the Coronation Stakes is whether Ryan Moore is on the right one this time. The reality is that five of the nine fillies are not good enough to win this, Donnacha O’Brien’s Breeders’ Cup winner Balantina makes her seasonal debut and Owen Burrows’s Touleen was a well beaten sixth in the 1000 Guineas. So Ryan is on recent Irish 1000 Guineas winner Precise (ridden by Wayne Lordan that day) whilst Wayne Lordan is reunited with his 1000 Guineas winner True Love. At the prices the rematch makes no betting appeal even though I backed the latter at HQ.
Just six line up for the Ascot Derby, the King Edward VII Stakes, and there is a Derby winner in the field. Venetian Prince won the Italian Derby in Milan a couple of weeks ago; however, his only other career victory was in a Newbury novice on his second start and this is a bit harder than pot-hunting in Italy. Echo Of Stars steps into pattern company after losing his maiden tag at the fourth attempt at Chepstow and connections must think he can show a lot of improvement to pitch straight into a Group 2. Ancient Egypt was eighth in the actual Derby but the Frankel colt had previously won the five runner Newmarket Stakes and is a possible pace angle here. Golden Story won the four runner Cocked Hat at Goodwood beating Queen’s Vase runner up Del Maro after finishing a remote third in the Dee Stakes but should go well here. The two big guns are Water To Wine, the twice raced Gosden runner an easy winner of a maiden from Alderman at Newbury following on with victory by a huge margin on the Kempton kitty litter; and Causeway, winner of four of his five starts for Aidan O’Brien most recently the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes. At the prices neither of them make any appeal and obviously Ryan Moore rides the Ballydoyle contender knowing how good the other colt is as he won on it too!
