great posts from everyone have to agree mm hasnt got a cat in hells chance i live in walking distance from kempton its been really wet here for days cant see good being in the ground description soft going for sure maybe somersby to sneak a place?
Agreed. What some call "not race fit" at Haydock I called "no longer fleet-footed" and "more of a grinder". Leaves him exposed to a speed horse like Kauto Star at Kempton, but not in the Gold Cup.
Like Ron I must say that this is a wonderful build up and a cracking thread to read, all perfectly valid opinions. Sat down and watched Somersby, Master Minded, and Captain Chris' careers last night. Was a very interesting analysis. I came up with a couple of points: Somersby and Captain Chris without question shape like they will be better over further. There is all sorts of race evidence to suggest so. However...the one point that stood out like a sore thumb to me was that of the two, Captain Chris would not quicken away from a field, he would lengthen and really go home very strongly. I was very impressed indeed and the way he has to be rousted along over 2m tells you that he is outpaced at that distance before coming home like a train. Somersby will need some cut in my opinion, as I think he will genuinely be an out and out stayer in the end. He is often outpaced and it takes him a while to hit top gear. I wont desert him this late on as I am convinced of a big run, but the likeliest to threaten the front two in the betting, if it is NOT soft ground, would be Captain Chris. I scrutinised Master Minded closely and in essence his case was two-fold: a) On top form, he travels like an absolute demon and jumps his way to the front on the bridle, regardless of whether running at 2m or 2m 4f. He has never been beaten for stamina, as when he has been beaten, he has almost always been off the bridle early. b) HOWEVER....Despite this, he has NOT looked like galloping away from a field under pressure and has not lengthened stride since his stunning 2008 win. He is a fascinating contradiction. For him to go close, he has to get everything off the bridle and I just dont think he can unless he somehow bounces back to 2008. Captain Chris or Somersby the value for me but anything too soft will see CC struggle.
I like strong opinions when they come from someone who clearly is knowledgeble on the subject matter, as you, like almost everyone else on here appear to be. You've actually almost put me off Master Minded such are your forthright views. But the thing with views, regardless of how articulate and well crafted they may be, is there quite often proved wrong after the event! Strangely enough your long, well reasoned articles reminded me greatly of another horse you spent a lot of time and effort in effect, hyping up, not unconsiderably either... As you shall no doubt recall, these views and appraisals somewhat proved more impressive than the actual horse in question! I can only hope your writing off Master Minded's chances so passionately were as accurate as your predictions / beliefs of the horse I have just referred to... Master Minded won't win- 'SO YOU THINK' I can only hope history shall repeat this time. Though if not I really, really hope you're right in that it's King Kauto being cheered and lauded into the winners enclosure like the true superstar he is. He's the one horse I think there's no argument, that really deserves his adulation / adoration
That is a topic for another day because I'm still convinced that the Ballydoyle boys have yet to get to the bottom of him. I can only assume that they think the same which is why they are keeping him in training next year. Anyhow I am far more confident that Master Minded will not win the King George. Going back to my Long Run point. I think it is a feasible suggestions. Connections came out and said how much he had grown and filled out over the summer, and this is widely assumed to be positive. It might have made him heavier, slower and so on . . . There is far too little evidence to support the theory or dismiss it but it just popped into my head when I was talking about Master Minded.
At least they've had all winter to work out some decent excuses this time around Would it not be hugely worrying if Long Run is already regressing though? I personally can't have that, he simply sits a couple of rows below the top table Barney always refers to! As for MM 'peaking' at 5 I can see why people may suggest that but that theory basically evolves around how highly rated he was after his first Champ Chase...To me he was grossly over-rated due to that one race (he only beat Voy Por- a mediocre champion chase imo). I think he performed to similar levels quite a number of times since then. Off the top of my head these include his Tingle Creeks, his first Victor Chandler, his Game Spirit win a couple of seasons ago. Note that I haven't looked up form etc so I am not in a position to dissect these individual performaces though the point I shall make is that these performances were of a similar level to his 2008 CC, a race where people got slightly carried away. To my eye he is not a declining force as of yet, of course he's thrown in dodgy races, but I disagree with anyone who suggests that his performances reflect that of a 'declining' horse.
I'll adapt the Long Run theory if I may. He's always been short of pace. Outpaced towards the end of RSA after travelling well, I believe he came into the KG last year (or earlier this year) as one of two standout horses. One of those horses misfired leaving Long Run winner by default if you will. In the gold cup he looked out paced as Kauto and Deman forged clear. Indeed SWC had to go to his whip early as Long Run was beaten for pace rounding the final corner. What happended is his huge engine kicked in and he caught the tiring, aged KS and Denman. Haydock, back to 3 miles and low and behold Long Run looks short of pace again. I think this horse is nailed on for the Gold Cup, Kempton I'm not so sure
This was my thought in the immediate aftermath of the Gold Cup. I still find it hard to oppose him in the Gold Cup (at the moment at least) but relatively easy to oppose in the King George. I think he has shown he is all about stamina and with so many pace horses in the race I can see him finding it hard to stay with them rounding the home turn for all he is guaranteed to be staying on at the death. Even last year Nacarat, the last horse off the bridle, traded at around Evens in running on Betfair. P.S. I must emphasise that I am not suggesting the Long Run on the downgrade theory is valid by any stretch of the imagination. It just occurred to me when thinking about Master Minded, and how similarly precocious Long Run has been. I do think it perfectly plausible that he is no longer improving, and that as he matures he will increasingly need a more thorough test of stamina to be seen at his best.
The betfair antepost market is only open until tomorrow morning. 3 to be placed, Kauto Star at 1.75 to be placed is looking such good value it's unreal - 3 out of that lot to finish in front? Not for me.
I'm not so sure Danish. He gave the last a real clout when under pressure last year and just seems to have developed this tendancy to make the occasional howler, I also make this a stronger than average King George with just about all of them capable of getting in the mix. I'm desperate for all 8 to stand their ground as it pretty much kills each way betting if one pulls out though with Betfair you back your selection to finish first 3 regardless.
He fell in the 2010 Gold Cup and UR in the 2008 Betfair, I wouldn't necessarily call that a tendancy. I mean, the way I see it is: 25 places out of 29 chasing starts (and I'd really say 28 as I don't anticipate a repeat of last years Punchestown performance). Over the course and distance, 5/5 top 3 places. 57% likelihood seems harsh. Whilst this is a stronger than average King George, and he is older than ever before (I know how obvious that is!), I still think it has the look of something very overpriced given the guarantee of 3 places.
Didn't he clout the last in this race last year ? He may have hung on for a place but a similar mistake against this field and I doubt he'll finish in the three, I'm sure he's also bulldozed his way through the last a few times in his career. That said it would take a very cold hearted man to wish against him winning an unprecedented 5th KG and whilst I'm backing Captain Chris I'd be more than happy doimng my money if Kauto was to win...
I genuinely believe Kauto Star needs Ruby Walsh on his back to perform at his best. If you look at him in the last King George, McCoy was niggling him down the back straight, that has never happened before in the King George with Ruby on his back. Some may say it is age, but fact is he performed much better at Cheltenham (where he ran a huge race before tiring) and Haydock (where he was back to his awesome best), both times with Ruby on board. This is not a slight on those other jockeys who have ridden him, it's just that Kauto Star seems to respond better to Ruby's urgings. Much the same way that Simon Sherwood struck up such a great relationship with Dessie - for all his talents, I never thought Richard Dunwoody got quite the same reaction out of Dessie. That's why I think Kauto Star will be bang there this time and can get that elusive 5th King George - if Ruby gets him into the same rhythm as at Haydock he will take a heck of a lot of passing.
Nothing against AP but I did comment on the relative merits of AP riding Kauto last year based on schooling videos. You can see the videos and comments here However, having said that, and bearing in mind the pressure that AP must have been feeling, I thought he did very well.
nice Ron, I like it. Interesting angle that not many of us would pick up on. Kauto and Ruby is very much the dream team imo. Would you say AP maybe doesn't have the feel of other jocks? Just read this on the internet. "Masterminded couldn't stay 3 miles in a horsebox" Can't wait now lads, it's as exciting as Christmas! Hopefully I'll be able to catch the race in Austria. Setting it all to record just in case, cant believe the 27th isn't on channel 4/bbc 1!
OK. Just spotted on the other thread - skiing. Have a nice time and don't break anything. Hold on - there's internet and racing from Kempton at the hospital.