With the dust barely settled from the long queues at the bookies paying out on the National favourite, the first classic trials of the flat season are taking place – just not on these shores.
Over at Leopardstown, most people might be expecting Aidan O’Brien to dominate; however, a quick glance at the less than wonderful recent record of the dominant Irish operation (winners to runners) would suggest that punters might be advised to keep their National winnings in their pockets.
Most eyes will be on the current ante post favourite for the Derby, Pierre Bonnard, in the Ballysax Stakes (4.55). Victor on three of his four juvenile starts, the layers have him a shade of odds on facing eight rivals, several of whom have form lines tied in with him. He beat A Boy Named Susie at Saint Cloud on his final start and stablemate Endorsement in the Zetland Stakes before that. Almost the entire field are trained by members of the O’Brien clan. Interesting that Italy runs here in a first time hood, second top rated in the field but stepping up to ten furlongs. That does not augur well for my mate’s ante post bet on the Guineas. Should Pierre Bonnard even be favourite for Epsom? Just remind me the last time a horse won the Zetland Stakes and went on to win the Blue Riband. There are a couple of St Leger winners on the role of honour. I am hoping that he runs at least respectably today or the ante most market will be shaken up and the odds on my preferred Ballydoyle contender will contract.
The first of the afternoon’s Group 3 events is the Red Rock Stakes (3.55) over seven furlongs. O’Brien only has four of the eleven declared; and Moore has opted for Flushing Meadows (duly made favourite by the layers). He was beaten at odds on when last seen and will need to have advanced over the winter as he has 8lb to find with the penalised Power Blue, not seen since winning the Phoenix Stakes last term. Also from Ballydoyle are Trojan Warrior (winner of his only start on heavy ground), Warsaw (not seen since tenth in the Coventry) and Dorset (made all over course and distance in a Group 3 when last seen under today’s pilot). If I were desperate for a bet here, I would look at Ger Lyons Geryon, runner up in two Group 2s last term following home Constitution Hill (A Boy Named Susie fourth) and Hawk Mountain.
Just three of the thirteen in the Priory Belle Stakes (4.25) are from Ballydoyle, the market leader True Love being one of them. She clearly has the best juvenile form having won the Cheveley Park Stakes at HQ before disappointing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. If she gets the extra furlong here then she has 7lb in hand of the second top rated; however, it is not inconceivable that one of the lightly-raced rivals has improved past her and she might turn out to be a sprinter rather than a Guineas horse. Ger Lyons’ Suzie Songs ran like a drain last time in the Moyglare when fitted with headgear, so that has been removed and she could step up on her second in the Debutante Stakes. There is just the small problem that the winner, Composing, is in this field and only has to give her a 3lb penalty. The O’Brien second string ran a stinker in the Fillies’ Mile but is a previous course and distance winner so she could finish ahead of her stablemate if that one does not last home. The best prospect to overturn the Coolmore operation looks to be second favourite Black Caviar Gold. She improved with each outing last year and finished with victory in the Group 3 Weld Park Stakes with the O’Brien favourite Amelia Earhart only fourth, Pivotal Attack second, Magny Cours fifth and Kensington Lane ninth (last). The question is does she want softer ground?
Over at Longchamp, the first of the French trials take place and there is a small amount of British/Irish interest.
In the Group 3 Prix de la Grotte (1.33), run over the Pouliches’ course and distance, the only raider is Karl Burke’s Evolutionist, third in the Fillies’ Mile when last seen. She holds entries in the British and Irish classics but she looks up against it today as the home team is strong. Christopher Head’s Green Spirit won the Prix d’Aumale over course and distance (Narissa second) before running second to Diamond Necklace in the Prix Marcel Boussac (Narissa third). That should make her very hard to beat today if fully wound up. Unless the Francis-Henri Graffard trained second favourite is fitter than the daughter of Kingman there is no reason that the form should be reversed as there are no penalties so they race again at level weights.
At 2.50, the Group 3 Prix de Fontainebleau colts’ trial (over the Poulains course and distance) does not feature any raiders. Once again Christopher Head provides the probable favourite with another Wertheimer & Frere horse, Nighttime. The Wootton Bassett colt was second in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère when last seen after winning the Prix la Rochette at this track. His three most interesting rivals are the Juddmonte runner, Regal Resolve, with Colin Keane aboard and winner of two 9 furlong races on the Chantilly kitty litter; Andre Fabre’s Godolphin colt Komorebi, runner up in the Prix la Rochette; and Jean-Claude Rouget’s Campacite, fourth in the Lagardère but then second to O’Brien’s Puetro Rico in the Criterium International. I expect the Head colt to win but at the available odds it makes little appeal as it might not be fully fit for this trial with the main event in May in the trainer’s mind.
The first of the trials for the middle distance classics in France, the Group 3 Prix Noailles, is at 3.25. This is interesting because the only raider is an O’Brien colt – but that is Joseph not Aidan. Hardy Warrior has already opened his 2026 account winning a three runner event at Naas easily from the front and has James Doyle in the plate today. The home team is led by three runners from the big yards. The two Fabre runners Powai (Godolphin colt, winner of two minor races at Chantilly and Clairefontaine last year) and Space Waltz (fourth in a Group 3 on the Chantilly kitty litter last November) could be anything. The Graffard colt Mirik comes here race fit after finishing second in a Saint Cloud Listed race; however, the winner that day, Saint Martin, also takes his chance this afternoon looking to complete a hat-trick after winning a minor event at Cagnes Sur Mer before the Listed win.
There are British raiders in the other races on the card with three in the first race at 12.58: Karl Burke’s Liberty Lane under a penalty, the Crisford’s Involvement and Hamad Al Jehani’s Diego Ventura up against locals that have won on the Chantilly kitty litter to get race it. There is also Arabian Force from the Haggas barn taking on Map Of Stars in the Lord Seymour Stakes at 4.00.
Good luck to anyone chancing their arm on the Sunday Series opener at Musselburgh. I might do the ITV7 for an interest as it is free to enter!
