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Good Morning. It's Thursday 26th March, and here are the latest headlines from Elland Road
Beren Cross identifies reason for Leeds goal drought
Beren Cross, the Leeds Utd correspondent for The New York Times has been looking into the numbers to see why goals have dried up for West Yorkshire's finest. Farke's me have failed to score in four consecutive Premier League games. They have one open-play goal in six league matches, and that was gifted to them by a Chelsea mix-up at Stamford Bridge.
The reality is a bit of a double-edged sword. While Leeds have managed back-to-back clean sheets and conceded only three goals in their last five games, that newfound defensive solidity seems to be coming at a heavy cost to their attacking spark. For a team that usually averages a healthy 1.19 goals per 90, failing to score in four straight Premier League games is a massive red flag.
The stats reveal a pretty clear "why" behind the drought: Leeds are simply making life too hard for themselves. In their last six matches, they’ve underperformed their expected goals (npxG) by nearly four, managing just two goals when the data suggests they should have had six. A big part of the problem is shot selection; the team has moved from taking shots at a dangerous 13.3 yards to firing from a much less effective average of 18.4 yards out.
Up until matchday 25, Leeds outperformed their xG, but the shift since has been noticeable. The Whites may be enjoying more shots on target recently, but to beat a top flight keeper from distance is going to take something special.
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Harry Wilson remains top Leeds target this summer
It’s a massive night for the "Welsh Whites" as Ethan Ampadu, Joe Rodon, Karl Darlow, and Dan James gear up for one of the biggest fixtures in recent memory. Wales’ clash against Bosnia and Herzegovina in Cardiff. it’s a high-stakes games with big reward, with the winners facing a final showdown against either Italy or Northern Ireland for a place in this summer's World Cup.
However, the Leeds connection in the Dragons' camp could be set to expand from a quartet to a quintet if Daniel Farke gets his wish this summer. The Leeds gaffer has long been an admirer of Fulham’s Harry Wilson, a player whose tactical DNA seems almost tailor-made for Farke’s system. A move for Wilson this summer makes perfect sense for the Whites, provided they maintain their top-flight status.
Farke is specifically hunting for a versatile and creative forward who can drift inside to occupy the half-spaces, a role Wilson has mastered at Craven Cottage. With his contract negotiations at Fulham reportedly exhausted and his current deal weeks away from expiring, the possibility of landing a player of his calibre on a free transfer is a mouth-watering prospect for the Elland Road hierarchy.
The "sensational" form Wilson has displayed this season, boasting 17 goal involvements, explains why Leeds were so desperate to sign him last summer. However, the path to signing him is far from a clear run. Is the lure of playing alongside your International teammates each week higher than joining a club with European aspirations? Both Everton and Aston Villa have also been strongly linked with the 29yo, making a move to Elland Road perhaps a little less likely, but certainly not impossible.
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