Grand Prix thread HEINEKEN CHINESE GRAND PRIX 2026

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Who will finish first?

  • Lando Norris

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Oscar Piastri

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Max Verstappen

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Isack Hadjar

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • George Russell

    Votes: 3 50.0%

  • Kimi Antonelli

    Votes: 1 16.7%

  • Lewis Hamilton

    Votes: 2 33.3%

  • Charles Leclerc

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Franco Colapinto

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Any Other

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    6
  • Poll closed .
Just watching C4 highlights. I hadn't noticed that 3 of the Merc powered cars failed to make the start! That's not a great show out of 8 cars!
Haas have more points than Red Bull!
Racing Bulls on same points as Red Bull!
 
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Sportista said:
Interesting, it’s clearly an odd thing to say on the day he wins his first race, but my impression is that these rules have tilted the balance more in Russell’s direction (admittedly based on a small sample set).
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It may be that it helps George too- it certainly hasn’t looked like it’s weakened either of them yet!

Hard to explain, but Kimi to me has always looked a metronomic driver, but that didn’t translate into pace last year very often. All pre season and in the opening two weekends he’s very much in Russell’s ball park.

It’s just interesting that both he and Hamilton suddenly look more alive on track- I think there was something in ground effect that definitely took away a bit of their speed and feel.

Very very early days of course and let’s see how it pans out. After all, Shanghai has always been a Hamilton track - he even managed a sprint win in the awful Ferrari last year!

But yeah- time will tell and of course both are in the two fastest cars this year and have no real threat from McLaren or Red Bull at this early stage, so it does exaggerate their pace somewhat.

One to watch!
 
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Mercedes never really mastered the ground effect era. Nor did Lewis, some others struggled with it. It became more about the car, less about the driver. I am happy to see greater emphasis placed on the driver skill than was the case with ground effect. I hope we will be entertained more than we have been. Clearly there are some teething problems.
It is going to be interesting to see how Kimi grows and whether this gives him the confidence to regularly challenge George.
 
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Justjazz said:
Mercedes never really mastered the ground effect era. Nor did Lewis, some others struggled with it. It became more about the car, less about the driver. I am happy to see greater emphasis placed on the driver skill than was the case with ground effect. I hope we will be entertained more than we have been. Clearly there are some teething problems.
It is going to be interesting to see how Kimi grows and whether this gives him the confidence to regularly challenge George.
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Interested to understand why you think this is more of a driver skill era? I look at the results we’ve had so far and the results have very much been car performance based, you can go through top 7 in Aus and Top 5 in China at least before the results aren’t car performance order and those are races that both had noise in terms of safety cars near to pit windows and mixed up strategies as a result.

Adding fuel to the fire, as pleased as as I am for Antonelli to win his first race, I’m in no doubt Russell was the fastest driver last weekend, but over the last 25 laps he wasn’t able to use that advantage and close down a 10s deficit at all really because they were both driving to the limit of the car.
 
Sportista said:
Interested to understand why you think this is more of a driver skill era? I look at the results we’ve had so far and the results have very much been car performance based, you can go through top 7 in Aus and Top 5 in China at least before the results aren’t car performance order and those are races that both had noise in terms of safety cars near to pit windows and mixed up strategies as a result.

Adding fuel to the fire, as pleased as as I am for Antonelli to win his first race, I’m in no doubt Russell was the fastest driver last weekend, but over the last 25 laps he wasn’t able to use that advantage and close down a 10s deficit at all really because they were both driving to the limit of the car.
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There is a lot to play out this season and even next. There are the politics regarding manufacturers opportunities to earn the right to implement redesigns to the engine and how teams manage this will be interesting to see.
From the driver perspective the cars have less downforce than last year opening up opportunities for drivers to use their own judgement in overtaking. To quote Charles "it is a bit easier to overtake on the outside".

He also mentions
"there are many tactics we can apply inside the car, and that’s amazing. of course, there are still some overtaking moves that are a bit artificial, especially when someone mismanages the battery and loses a lot of speed. but it seems we are moving towards a better understanding of where we shouldn’t go and where we can take risks. this creates very interesting overtaking opportunities."

My reading of this is that the racing could be more interesting, particularly if the slower cars have earned the right for more engine upgrades, which seems to be the case. I watched a video about this yesterday with particular reference to Ferrari and Fred seeing this as a tactical opportunity.

We will see if this plays out as expected.
 
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Justjazz said:
There is a lot to play out this season and even next. There are the politics regarding manufacturers opportunities to earn the right to implement redesigns to the engine and how teams manage this will be interesting to see.
From the driver perspective the cars have less downforce than last year opening up opportunities for drivers to use their own judgement in overtaking. To quote Charles "it is a bit easier to overtake on the outside".

He also mentions
"there are many tactics we can apply inside the car, and that’s amazing. of course, there are still some overtaking moves that are a bit artificial, especially when someone mismanages the battery and loses a lot of speed. but it seems we are moving towards a better understanding of where we shouldn’t go and where we can take risks. this creates very interesting overtaking opportunities."

My reading of this is that the racing could be more interesting, particularly if the slower cars have earned the right for more engine upgrades, which seems to be the case. I watched a video about this yesterday with particular reference to Ferrari and Fred seeing this as a tactical opportunity.

We will see if this plays out as expected.
Click to expand...

Thanks, it will be interesting to see how things evolve, I agree. There are some heavy cars out there it seems, potential engine update opportunities and I’m sure the drivers will learn and normalise their approaches over time too.

On the driver skill stuff, I think this is tied in to the “how valuable/meaningful is this racing we’re seeing” question? It’s clear the drivers seem to have more options from moment to moment in the car, but the race results suggest that the reality currently is a case of “all roads lead to Rome” and ultimately the cars still sort themselves into performance order, but in a more “entertaining” way. This is perhaps a good thing, but personally I’m still wary of too much meaningless passing leading to a basketball style sport, which wouldn’t be something I’d enjoy.
 
Sportista said:
Thanks, it will be interesting to see how things evolve, I agree. There are some heavy cars out there it seems, potential engine update opportunities and I’m sure the drivers will learn and normalise their approaches over time too.

On the driver skill stuff, I think this is tied in to the “how valuable/meaningful is this racing we’re seeing” question? It’s clear the drivers seem to have more options from moment to moment in the car, but the race results suggest that the reality currently is a case of “all roads lead to Rome” and ultimately the cars still sort themselves into performance order, but in a more “entertaining” way. This is perhaps a good thing, but personally I’m still wary of too much meaningless passing leading to a basketball style sport, which wouldn’t be something I’d enjoy.
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I understand your concern regarding the outcome is ultimately predictable. At this stage that maybe true but I am hopeful in season development which is not equal for all teams will throw in some unpredictable outcomes, not only for a race but maybe the championship. It is perhaps going to be a season of 2 halves. Who would have predicted Max's comeback last year. OK, you can never write off a driver like Max but the turnaround was quite stunning.
For me George is a good driver but not an exceptional talent, at least not yet. Kimi has proven that. Merc are at the front because it is the best car, not because of its drivers. Given that, as the others teams play catch up we will hopefully see a more competitive field as the season develops.
I liked the battle between Lewis and Charles, if that can play out with 6 or more drivers, as the cars themselves become less of the differentiator, over the season we may have an entertaining year ahead.
Mercedes may be disadvantaged by being the best at the season start.
Of course, nothing is a given.
 
Justjazz said:
I understand your concern regarding the outcome is ultimately predictable. At this stage that maybe true but I am hopeful in season development which is not equal for all teams will throw in some unpredictable outcomes, not only for a race but maybe the championship. It is perhaps going to be a season of 2 halves. Who would have predicted Max's comeback last year. OK, you can never write off a driver like Max but the turnaround was quite stunning.
For me George is a good driver but not an exceptional talent, at least not yet. Kimi has proven that. Merc are at the front because it is the best car, not because of its drivers. Given that, as the others teams play catch up we will hopefully see a more competitive field as the season develops.
I liked the battle between Lewis and Charles, if that can play out with 6 or more drivers, as the cars themselves become less of the differentiator, over the season we may have an entertaining year ahead.
Mercedes may be disadvantaged by being the best at the season start.
Of course, nothing is a given.
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I admire the positivity! You’re right that RedBull closed down a big margin last year, but it was an anomalous year where most teams barely developed their cars, to concentrate on this year and RedBull were a significant outlier in that respect. We can have some hope that the ADUO is an unfair mechanism, which similarly turns the tables on Merc, although personally I’m not sure I’ll find that very sporting or satisfying if so.

I think you’re harsh on Russell imo, I think he’s as good as he will ever be and honestly I’d say he’s probably the 2nd/3rd best driver on the grid and has been for some time. Kimi could still eclipse him eventually, but the experience gap is huge right now and honestly GR could beat him 4:1 this year and I wouldn’t think any the worse of him for it. Barring something significant happening, I expect he’ll canter to the title, but it’s a position he’s earned, firstly through getting his promotion to Merc and then through effectively pushing Hamilton out of the team, to create a situation where he’s the effective number 1 of a team with a clear advantage.
 
Sportista said:
I admire the positivity! You’re right that RedBull closed down a big margin last year, but it was an anomalous year where most teams barely developed their cars, to concentrate on this year and RedBull were a significant outlier in that respect. We can have some hope that the ADUO is an unfair mechanism, which similarly turns the tables on Merc, although personally I’m not sure I’ll find that very sporting or satisfying if so.

I think you’re harsh on Russell imo, I think he’s as good as he will ever be and honestly I’d say he’s probably the 2nd/3rd best driver on the grid and has been for some time. Kimi could still eclipse him eventually, but the experience gap is huge right now and honestly GR could beat him 4:1 this year and I wouldn’t think any the worse of him for it. Barring something significant happening, I expect he’ll canter to the title, but it’s a position he’s earned, firstly through getting his promotion to Merc and then through effectively pushing Hamilton out of the team, to create a situation where he’s the effective number 1 of a team with a clear advantage.
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ADUO does seem unfair and seems to be based only on engine output. For Ferrari who have two other performance mechanisms, the wing (yet to be functional) and the blown winglet. I have to believe others will try and copy.
As for George, I wasn't being harsh. He has done well but I think Kimi has the potential to out perform him. Look how long Toto left George to develop at Williams whereas Kimi, Toto has brought him straight into the primary Mercedes team. Kimi could challenge George just as Hamilton did Alonso.
Hamilton was his own worse enemy, his style did not work with the ground effect era and his mood became dark. It is early days with the new regulations but he is buoyant in his mood.
Only two venues so far, much can still happen to keep the fans interested, thankfully.
 
A very interesting video has been put out by "the race" doing a deep dive on Leclerc's sprint qualifying and i'm increasingly coming around to Verstappen's point of view about these regulations. It has to change.

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Basically there's a rule that battery deployment can't ramp down until the car has been at effectively full throttle for a second. Charles had a slight oversteer moment out of turn 10 where he drops to 95% throttle. Because of this, the rules force his car to waste power on the short straight. Then on the long back straight he runs out of battery and loses a bunch of time.

You can't dance on the edge of grip any more. We've seen before what supperclipping does to entry speeds, but i'm only now realising you have to be so cautious on exit as well. The slightest lift destroys your engine mapping.
 
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Julius Caesar said:
A very interesting video has been put out by "the race" doing a deep dive on Leclerc's sprint qualifying and i'm increasingly coming around to Verstappen's point of view about these regulations. It has to change.

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Basically there's a rule that battery deployment can't ramp down until the car has been at effectively full throttle for a second. Charles had a slight oversteer moment out of turn 10 where he drops to 95% throttle. Because of this, the rules force his car to waste power on the short straight. Then on the long back straight he runs out of battery and loses a bunch of time.

You can't dance on the edge of grip any more. We've seen before what supperclipping does to entry speeds, but i'm only now realising you have to be so cautious on exit as well. The slightest lift destroys your engine mapping.
Click to expand...

This is an excellent find. Fundamentally for me it seems like the connection between the driver’s right foot and the behaviour of the PU is non linear - you can change torque demand, but sometimes you’re cutting long term energy (fuel) and sometimes you’re cutting short term energy (charge). With the short term energy usage optimisation being so key to lap time, you’re basically incentivised to be consistent around full throttle applications in order to avoid situations where you’re forced to fuel cut for traction because you’re not allowed to charge cut, but also as a double effect you can also enter a second minimum charge spend on acceleration using even more energy. In the early testing days the cars looked incredible out of slow corners, & I wondered if I’d just got used to it, but this explains that likely it’s more the drivers have changed style as a result of the consequences and are avoiding using all that performance.

The video’s pretty damming, but I feel like I can top it and point out that ultimately if the rules stay this way we might as well bring back traction control…
 
Justjazz said:
As for George, I wasn't being harsh. He has done well but I think Kimi has the potential to out perform him. Look how long Toto left George to develop at Williams whereas Kimi, Toto has brought him straight into the primary Mercedes team. Kimi could challenge George just as Hamilton did Alonso.
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I feel like this ignores an awful lot of specific circumstances around those situations.

I don’t disagree with your conjecture about their relative potential across their career in the long term, but I just don’t see any evidence Kimi can or will go toe to toe with George this year. George is consistently at a pretty high level and doesn’t leave much on the table, Kimi can get to that level and maybe even past it on occasion, but he’s very inexperienced at this level and also very young. Looking historically I think you have to compare him to the current youngest WDC, Vettel. He’d be 2+ years less experienced, 3 years younger, in his first, rather than second title fight and George will be much tougher competition than Webber across a year - I honestly don’t think any driver ever overcomes all those challenges to win through, it’s no slight on Kimi, it’s just circumstance.

There’s probably more chance that one of the other teams catches Merc, through fair means or ADUO, but if they do it’s going to be McLaren and their evenly matched drivers or Ferrari, for whom if Hamilton is truly back will also have drivers who will take points off each other.

There’s a good chance that we’ll see some variation through the season and reason to hope it won’t be a complete Merc/GR domination, but in championship terms I think there’s good reasons that Russell was a strong favourite before a wheel was turned and that his favourite status only continues to increase.
 
Sportista said:
I feel like this ignores an awful lot of specific circumstances around those situations.

I don’t disagree with your conjecture about their relative potential across their career in the long term, but I just don’t see any evidence Kimi can or will go toe to toe with George this year. George is consistently at a pretty high level and doesn’t leave much on the table, Kimi can get to that level and maybe even past it on occasion, but he’s very inexperienced at this level and also very young. Looking historically I think you have to compare him to the current youngest WDC, Vettel. He’d be 2+ years less experienced, 3 years younger, in his first, rather than second title fight and George will be much tougher competition than Webber across a year - I honestly don’t think any driver ever overcomes all those challenges to win through, it’s no slight on Kimi, it’s just circumstance.

There’s probably more chance that one of the other teams catches Merc, through fair means or ADUO, but if they do it’s going to be McLaren and their evenly matched drivers or Ferrari, for whom if Hamilton is truly back will also have drivers who will take points off each other.

There’s a good chance that we’ll see some variation through the season and reason to hope it won’t be a complete Merc/GR domination, but in championship terms I think there’s good reasons that Russell was a strong favourite before a wheel was turned and that his favourite status only continues to increase.
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When I saw Kimi’s Dad and Toto interviewed after the race , they were both at pains to point out it was far far too soon to talk about Kimi having a chance of this years WDC , and I agree with them , he’s too inexperienced and they are protecting him as well because he is so young .

Some drivers come across as being older than they are , but IMHO , Kimi doesn’t , so needs emotional support which thankfully he seems to be getting .
 
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Julius Caesar said:
A very interesting video has been put out by "the race" doing a deep dive on Leclerc's sprint qualifying and i'm increasingly coming around to Verstappen's point of view about these regulations. It has to change.

You must log in or register to see media

Basically there's a rule that battery deployment can't ramp down until the car has been at effectively full throttle for a second. Charles had a slight oversteer moment out of turn 10 where he drops to 95% throttle. Because of this, the rules force his car to waste power on the short straight. Then on the long back straight he runs out of battery and loses a bunch of time.

You can't dance on the edge of grip any more. We've seen before what supperclipping does to entry speeds, but i'm only now realising you have to be so cautious on exit as well. The slightest lift destroys your engine mapping.
Click to expand...
It does sound like no one from FIA has explained to the fans that there is a lot more to the recovery and deployment than it seems. If this 200Kw vs 100Kw ramp down happens by a slight lift off the throttle it's going to make drivers drive very differently. I had been quite enjoying that the cars are a bit more of a handful out of the corners.
The other thing that this video shows is on Charles's trace at the end of the start finish straight on the red (slow) lap his throttle went to over 100%! Then dived massively under braking, it looked to me like he had been within 1 second of a car in front and managed to activate the boost mode!
The other thing that struck me from the traces was that although Charles lost straight line speed on the white trace it was actually the faster lap! Looking at the white trace he was slower on the first 8 or 9 corners, then gets teh energy boost and is faster after that even with the loss of deployable power on the 13/14 corner.
It's all quite interesting.
 
Sportista said:
I feel like this ignores an awful lot of specific circumstances around those situations.

I don’t disagree with your conjecture about their relative potential across their career in the long term, but I just don’t see any evidence Kimi can or will go toe to toe with George this year. George is consistently at a pretty high level and doesn’t leave much on the table, Kimi can get to that level and maybe even past it on occasion, but he’s very inexperienced at this level and also very young. Looking historically I think you have to compare him to the current youngest WDC, Vettel. He’d be 2+ years less experienced, 3 years younger, in his first, rather than second title fight and George will be much tougher competition than Webber across a year - I honestly don’t think any driver ever overcomes all those challenges to win through, it’s no slight on Kimi, it’s just circumstance.

There’s probably more chance that one of the other teams catches Merc, through fair means or ADUO, but if they do it’s going to be McLaren and their evenly matched drivers or Ferrari, for whom if Hamilton is truly back will also have drivers who will take points off each other.

There’s a good chance that we’ll see some variation through the season and reason to hope it won’t be a complete Merc/GR domination, but in championship terms I think there’s good reasons that Russell was a strong favourite before a wheel was turned and that his favourite status only continues to increase.
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I am certainly not saying anything is a slam dunk this early in the season. Because of the ADOU I don't think it is a given Mercedes outperform the others this season. I hope we see a fight, at least for the drivers championship. Kimi is going to grow in confidence this season more than George who has reached a high level of maturity.
One thing for certain (at least I hope) this season is going to throw up some surprises. I watched the video that JC posted, which confirms there is nothing certain about this season.
 
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