3.35 Ascot: Prospect Wells 5/1 (NAP) Standout 5/1 with Ladbrokes, Prospect Wells made Steps To Freedom dig deep at Chelteham and as you know that is a horse I think is good enough to win the Supreme Novice in March. If that is the case, then Prospect Wells ought to be bang there and seeing off most of the exposed field here. Brampour the main danger.
Morning Toppy hope you are well This looks a pretty strong renewal of the Ladbroke but given the going I am looking for a horse with proven form on soft or heavy, and the one I really like the look of is Brian Ellison's Marsh Warbler E/W (NAP). He ran up a hat-trick this time last year on soft/heavy including a Grade 1 at Chepstow, and on each occaision he loved the underfoot conditions and stayed on really strongly at the end of his races. He went to the supreme novices and despite running well for a long way he was ultimately done for speed in the good ground. His seasonal reappearance, a staying-on 2nd behind Grandouet on Gd/soft at Haydock was encouraging and today he finally has some real juice in the ground. On his best form he can win this off 148 and young James Best taking off 7lbs is an added bonus, and with Brampour staying in he does not have a stopping weight off 11-1.
Morning Cyc. If I tried to dip a toe in this weather it would freeze off Been down the beach in your budgie smugglers today?
Ascot first - 3.05 Dover's Hill - two poor runs this season but I think he is about to put that form right. He was good as a novice last season and I think he will run much better than his 25/1 pricetag. EW bet. 3.35 Viva Colonia - Ran well last time out, when his jockey held on to him for too long. Different jockey today and I think he can run well today. 16/1 EW Lingfield - 1.50 Spirit Of Sharjah - Ran a fair race at Kempton last time and should be primed for this race. My best bet of the day. 5/1 EW 2.20 Suits Me - 5th best horse in the race on ratings but loves Lingfield Park. Ran well in this sort of race last time out and I think he can win again today. 13/2 EW
Cyc, To go racing I love the NH, but for a good dabble it has to be the flat. I follow the flat form much more closely but I do try to keep up with the staying chasers in handicaps and the top tables of the NH game. Just not a Fakenham on Friday sort of racing fan!!
Cyc, I love good staying handicaps because the stories that run through them can be absolutely fascinating, and I also find that you can get a good read of the form without having to know a plethora of different horses. I find that they are a better spectacle than most 'stakes' staying races (ie more competitive) and you can still see brilliant horses carrying big weights (like good old Denman). If you like staying chases then its worth reading Quiet Gambler on the other forum, he is the forums 'timeform' in that sphere!
Liked Zaynar's win. Looked at him all day, but didn't have the balls to go with him. Can he go on with it again?
Cyc, he is with the right trainer to do so. I hope he carries on in that sort of form, would be a test for the Crus missile at Kempton Parkway.
Hi guys, call me nuts but I'm going to take on Prospect Wells in the 3.35. Nothing wrong with that, but anyone taking on Toppy really needs their head checking after his great shouts yesterday and all year to be fair. However, the fav could be anything and I like the look of Sailors Warn in that race who will appreciate the ground after being a tad outpaced at Cheltenham where I was on him. There's a good form line with the fav through Steps to Freedom and he carried 7lbs more than the winner when running 3Ls 2nd behind Unaccompanied who in turn got very close to the horse that, imho, is probably the most likely challenger to the Fly in the Champ Hurdle. Mccoy takes the ride and Sailors Warn is 9/1 currently so worth the e/w. I'm gonna NAP that up as well
