Where will we finish? 2025/26

Yep.

 

A very valid point. Since moving Gelhardt wide and playing with in effect a three in the middle we've not been cut open as much (bar Norwich first half).

Definitely a tactical shift to tighten up.

It does worry me with Belloumi back that we might move Gelhardt into the 10 and have that weakness again.

 

Belloumi will have to win his place back, simple. Said all along Geldhart looks better on the wing, it’s his place to lose now. I would sooner stick Belloumi out on the left than move Geldhart from the right at the moment.

 

So if we had conceded 10 goals in one game and none over the next 3 you'd be sat there saying "We've conceded 10 goals in four games and there's no other way to look at it"?

We've conceded 13 goals in our last 10 games. That's a sizeable sample. Norwich, Portsmouth, Sheff Weds and Utd, Swansea, Southampton, Bristol City, and Blackburn have all conceded more. Oxford and Millwall have conceded 13, same as us. That's ten teams who have conceded as many or more than us over the last ten. It's not as stark as you're making out.

In that same period only Coventry and Ipswich have scored more goals than us. To have the third most goals scored and ~12-14th worst goals conceded will see you winning more games than not.

 

The last 3 would be a better indicator, how does it look there?

 

That’s the magic number

 

I tend to find the last 7 is the most accurate statistical sample size and provides the objective truth to the exclusion of all other sample sizes.

 

Theres no point winning a game 5-1
Better to draw a game 0-0

If you ask me

 

I would rather lose 3-2 than draw 0-0 to be honest.

 

How many games in a row?

 

There is a positive spin atm, we’re scoring more than we’re conceding and currently in 5th spot. If this changes, then we have a problem.

 

Your deeper dive into the fact that this season so far, we've conceded more goals than any club which isn't in Sheffield, suggests that the situation is improving. Good, it needs to.

If this rate of improvement doesn't decline, and we continue scoring at the same rate, then we will likely have a second third of the season as good as, or better, than the first, meaning that we go into the final third in a position of real strength.

We still need to improve defensively however. Take the last 3 goals we've conceded; goalkeeper/defender miscommunication, 3 times failure to clear a ball, losing possession in midfield then not closing down the man. All could have been avoided. Hopefully the coaches are working on it. If we don't improve further it's going to cost us more than the point we dropped against Derby.

 

It also suggests they're moments not system issues. That's a positive not a negative.

 

We've already conceded 8 more goals than burnley did in the whole of last season

That really was a ridiculous feat last season

But our games have goals galore and it is more exciting

 

Looks like a few have been changing their votes.

 

Shameful

I voted bottom half and i stand by it

Anything above is a brucey bonus
Still 31 games left

 

I said 20th , but to be fair that was before mcburnie and gelhardt signed, which just proves prediction things are pointless until windows close really . Would have said 3rd if I’d waited, honest .

 

"You are only as good as your last game". M Perarnau (et al)

 

I'll still be happy with this given the predicament we found ourselves in, but it's fantastic that we're doing so well. Not gonna change my prediction for fear of jinxing things

 

Here's what I put and I'm sticking with it. Never voted as my choice wasn't there, I see it is now.