Given the number of qualifiers throughout the season and my interest in the race for many years, I thought it worth creating a thread now to cover all the qualifiers for the 2026 final, monitor those horses who have qualified and try to spot the winner of what is a fiendishly difficult race to predict. Firstly the basics. The Final is held on the Thursday of the Cheltenham Festival (so Thursday 12th March 2026) and is currently scheduled to start as the penultimate race on the card at 16:40. This represents a new starting time, with the race having previously been run earlier in the day (usually 2nd or 3rd race on the card). The race is a handicap hurdle over an official distance of 2 miles 7 furlongs and 113 yard or - as near as damn it - 3 miles. The qualifiers are generally also over approximately 3 miles (albeit Kempton's race is markedly shorter at around 2m 5f) and are also handicap hurdles. Qualifiers This season there are a 20 qualifiying races ahead of the final, with 3 in France (Auteuil, Cagnes sur Mer and Pau), 3 in Ireland (Punchestown, Leopardstown and Naas) and the balance in the UK. Not all dates are yet finalised but the latest information on schedules can be found on the Jockey Club website HERE. The first 4 home in each qualifying race qualify for the final but connections must be mindful of the fact that there is a maximum field size of 24 runners. The winner of each qualifier is, however, guaranteed a starting place as long as they are within the required weight range of the race at final declarations. Simply put, the horse must be rated within 2 stone of the top weight in the handicap. Generally speaking, a rating of 135 should definitely be high enough to get a run, anything below that could be risky. As an example, the 2025 winner Doddiethegreat, won off a mark of 131 and was number 19 on the racecard. Top weight was Thomas Mor off 143 (pretty low for top weight in the race, statistically) and the bottom weight (number 24 of 24 runners) was American Sniper off a mark of 124. Trends There are a number of important trends around the final and these are taken from thestatsdontlie.com and become more relevant as we approach final declarations: Age – 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8 Price – 2 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 5/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting, 7/12 winners were priced 10/1 or bigger Weights – 8/12 winners carried 11st 4lbs or less Last Run – 3/12 winners won on their last run before the Pertemps Final, 11/12 winners had their last run with the last 61 days 6/12 winners ran in a Pertemps Qualifier on their last run, 1 of the 6 won, 2 placed Previous Course Form – 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 2/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 23-25 furlongs, 6/12 winners had at least 1 win over 23-25 furlongs Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 6 previous runs over hurdles, 10/12 winners had at least 7 previous runs over hurdles, 9/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles Rating – 8/12 winners were rated between 134 and 146 Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 5/12 winners had at least 1 win that season I'll post a new comment for each qualifying race.
Qualifier #1 - Cheltenham - Saturday 25th October 2025 Yes, we've already had the first qualifier and here is the result with horses name, trainer, winning mark and revised mark: 1. Ma Shantou (Emma Lavelle, 130 now 138) 2. Electric Mason (Chris Gordon, 128 now 132) 3. Supremely West (Dan Skelton, 137 now 138) 4. Long Draw (Olly Murphy, 138 now 138) Firstly it is worth pointing out this qualifier was on the old track whereas the final is run on the new course. Ma Shantou was a well-backed favourite based on his 7th place finish in last seasons Albert Bartlett. I think connections will be disappointed if he doesn't progress beyond his allotted 138 and he holds an entry in a valuable premier handicap at Haydock in a couple of weeks. If he takes up that entry than I think it likely they will go pot hunting with him, rather than trying to get him on the final off an attractive mark. Let's see what happens with him over the coming weeks. Second-placed Electric Mason also ran at the 2025 festival, finishing midfield in the Martin Pipe and he clearly thrived on his first try at 3 miles. It will be interesting to see where they go next with him, and whether he remains competitive off his new mark. Supremely West is now trained by Cheltenham handicap specialist Dan Skelton (although he has never won the Pertemps Final) and this was a creditable effort on his first run at Cheltenham. He qualified for the 2025 final by finishing 2nd in the Chepstow qualifier for Dr Newland but they chose instead to go to Uttoxeter on Midlands National day where he finished 2nd to Gwennie May Boy. I assume their ambitions will lie elsewhere again this season. Long Draw has very good Cheltenham form (2114) and he could be the one to take out of the race. I will be interested to see what they do with him next but if he turns up at the final on a mark in the low 130-s he could be interesting. Conclusion: It is an awfully long time to the final and this race does not have a good record of providing the winner. Whilst I'll certainly be monitoring the 4 qualified horses as they progress through the season, none of them would be on the short list right now.
Qualifier #2 - Newbury - Thursday 6th November 2025 The Newbury qualifier tomorrow has 11 declared and there are some really interesting runners, none more so than top weight Haiti Couleurs. Rebecca Curtis' runner had a maginficent last season over fences, winning the National Hunt Chase and the Irish National. In all reality though, this is a pipe-opener and, whilst it would be no surprise to see him run well, he surely won't be turning up in the final. East India Express is entered here and in Sunday's qualifier at Aintree and I think that means they are serious about the final as a target for the season. He remaons on a career-high mark of 140 with Freddie Gordon taking off 3 and he would really grab my interest if he were to be "tenderly ridden" for a place. Act Of Authority is also entered at Aintree on Sunday and similar comments apply, although a paddock check is advised as he might need the run. Hititi is a regular in these races (qualified for the last two finals but didn't run) but is inconsistent. Emailandy and Samuel Spade come here on the back of wind surgery whilst Thanksforthehelp is probably the one most likely to sneak into 4th give connections. The one I like for win purposes here is Dan Skelton's Tranquil Sea. The ex Paul Nolan inmate stayed on really powerfully to win at Chepstow and a 6lb rise for that looks fair.
I'm heading to Valencia for a long weekend tomorrow morning so will catch up with the Newbury, Aintree (Saturday) and Kempton (next Monday) qualifiers when I get back. The Aintree race will likely be a small field as a good number of the entries are declared to run at Newbury tomorrow. Impose Toi, Katate Dori and Crebilly look interesting though. Kempton has 12 entries so far with only Impose Toi enered elsewhere as far as I can see.
