Match Day Thread Derby v Hull City

Billy Big Bollocks, talk a lot but don’t say much. Derby ****y appear to have more than their fair share.

Easy game to call this. Their season is mapped out. Doomed.

City 3-0 ****s

 

It's a very useful tool for a coach but utterly pointless for fans to be discussing it as a stick to beat a team with. As someone else pointed out, what matters is how many goals end up over the line, even if they are own goals.

 

Had a very similar experience there a couple of years ago, it was my daughters first game. I think they just have a decent steward company that actually trains their staff properly.

 

That’s an underwear size isn’t it?

 

Someone wants to refer City to them.

 

For some of us. For others it is VS.

 

I think it’s a clothing size bigger than XXXL

 

Gelhardt plays.

Three at the back.

Dramah starts.

 

I think it's the other way around. Coaches and analysts will be dealing with more granular data than xG, which is really nothing more than an easily digestible model of chance creation that's a bit more reliable than Shots on Target. It's flawed, but it's still better for what it is than other stats.

Someone on the Athletic a while ago said if you get excited when your team gets a penalty because you know it means there's a high chance you'll score, then you're thinking in terms of xG and the concept is exactly the same. I thought that was quite a good counter to people moaning about it as if it's the most abstract concept anyone could imagine. I think some people try too hard to be annoyed by any mention of it, and the "it's goals that matter" line is totally pointless since obviously nobody would question that. I also accept that some people bring it up too much and use it as the answer to every question, but even they are obviously aware that it's goals that count. Nobody ever needs to be pointing that out, I promise.

 

Interesting to see 3-4-3 (like second half v Norwich) over 3-5-2 (like v Charlton).

Surprised to see Ndala start again, I'd expect to have seen Destan up top with Joseph left.

Also thought Crooks might get a rest, he looked done by the end of the Norwich game. Hadziahmetovic was probably the best of the three mids first half so does seem a little harsh.

Probably see a couple of rotations again on Saturday however to manage their loads.

 

xG is a useful stat. If one of your players or the team as a whole are underperforming their xG, it means they need to improve their finishing. It’s a good metric for coaches to analyse over several games and see where the team is going wrong.

For example, I’m fairly certain we underperformed our xG under Walter which suggests our problem was finishing chances, not chance-creation itself.

 

I can't get a handle on how well Hadžiahmetović is doing. He sometimes seems classy, but he keeps getting subbed off early or dropped, which makes it seems like he's not entirely trusted.

 

He's started most games to be fair to him, and came straight in when he arrived.

I thought he'd start with Crooks benched for a rest, I do worry we haven't got that sweeper figure in midfield today.

 

Of course there's far more data to allow a coach to pick the bones out of a performance but it's a quick and simplistic number only a coach really needs to know.

In rugby league we would get our stats guy to give us one number at half time, completion rate. We would want it over 80%. Didn't need to know at that point how we got there, eg kick endings, turnover of possession etc. But then sky started banding it around on their ticker feed and fans now panic if their clubs completion rate falls below their opinion of what it should be.

Same is happening with XG to a point. It's irrelevant to anyone sat in the stands or watching on tv, it changes nothing for them. But people chuck it about like it's some kind of weapon to put a club down., as have some Derby fans apparently.

A game can be super entertaining without a high completion rate or XG number. People should just enjoy it for what it was. Like we all did before Sky TV and the Athletic.

 

I like him. I just wish I could say his name.

 

It's fairly unlikely you'd get an entertaining game with a low xG for both sides, as that would normally suggest there was very little goalmouth action.

 

I also thought he might go with Joseph on the left and try Destan up the middle..Having said that, Ndala maybe needs to get a few games to get up to his best.

 

Midfield feels a bit skinny.
Maybe we'll be playing mostly with width.

Referee is Steve Martin - hope he isn't a Jerk.