Saturday's Meetings Down Royal N/H 8 Races 11:50-3:50p.m. Newmarket Flat 7 Races 12:32-4:00p.m. Wetherby N/H 7 Races 12:40-4:05p.m. Ayr N/H 7 Races 12:48-4:15p.m. Ascot N/H 7 Races 12:55-4:20p.m. Newcastle(E) A/W 8 Races 3:35-7:15p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
I'm sticking to Newmarket and 2YO races. In the opener the Appleby horse carries a 7lb penalty offset by a 7lb claimed. I don't know much about the jockey but although a winner Dancing Flower won a modest race last time and I think she could be vulnerable to one of the maidens. My money went on Areti from the Oliver Cole stable. A promising 3rd on debut, she obviously copes at 7F and doesn't have to improve too much to be involved. The Cole stable hasn't had many runners of late but are 2/9 for a 22% strike rate. At 5/1, Areti appealed most to me. In the Montrose Stakes there are a few promising sorts from good stables, and unbeaten winners at that. Pintara impressed me most last time and the Beckett stable won this last year. Yard in decent form and 9/2 an OK price in an open affair. Already won at the distance which helps. 12.32 Newmarket ARETI 5/1 13.07 Newmarket PINTARA 9/2 Two singles and a double.
We already have the first Grade 1 of the Irish jumps season at Down Royal today and you have to wonder what Flash Collonges is doing in the field. Officially rated 115, he is at least 40lbs below what it would take just to be competitive and you just have to hope it doesn't end in tears. There really ought to be restrictions in the race conditions to prevent horses running in races where they are clearly out of their depth. The remainder of the field does look up to scratch though, for all there is no Closutton runner (they historically haven't targetted this meeting, I guess it is too early in the season for them). Envoi Allen has been a standing fixture at this meeting with 5 wins here in the last 6 years and he will no doubt be tuned to the minute for what is likely his "cup final" this season. Spillane's Tower ran arguably his best race last season in the John Durkan, showing he goes well fresh, and he ought to be right in the mix here. Galway Plate winner Western Fold comes here on a 5-timer but the one I like is his stablemate Found A Fifty, who steps up to 3 miles for the first time. Wetherby hosts a couple of Grade 2 events. The West Yorkshire Hurdle has attracted a small but select field, with Pertemps Final winner Doddie The Great the outsider of 5 . I'll be hoping Potters Charm can step up from his very solid novice form but he will have to do so to beat a very good stayer in Strong Leader. The Charlie Hall has lost a bit of its appeal with the defection of Protektorat and the market is struggling to find a favourite right now. I'm going to stick with the "horses for courses" maxim and will take The Real Whacker to become the first dual winner since the wonderful Ollie Magern. Over at Ascot we have a plethora of non-runners (I assume due to the going) but I will be hoping for a good day for the Tizzards in the shape of Alexei (3.10) and The Changing Man (3.45) who should both be suited by prevailing conditions.
Ascot 14,05 Special Cadeau 13/2 PP, 6/1 others Wetherby 16,05 Red Delta 11/4 WH, Bet365, Lads and Coral
Last year, I spent a couple of hours trawling through old race videos and form for the Breeders’ Cup meeting only to have all three of my Saturday bets lose as almost every race last year was run at too strong a pace early killing off all the runners that sat near or just off the pace. Some might remember Appleby’s Notable Speech being mown down by More Than Looks that was second last at the home turn. Also, the very short-priced American favourite Cogburn in the Sprint being run down by Starlust under Rossa Ryan in the last hundred yards having had a three length lead at the home turn with Bradsell and Big Evs nowhere. So I started by looking at the British bookies betting and scratching anything with a short-priced favourite as I won’t back them and if they are American horses (especially if they are Bob Baffert’s) then they are probably well justified in being short. Baffert has three of the first five in the betting for the Filly & Mare Sprint (over seven furlongs, a sprint?) at 19.00 GMT but may not win it. I cannot say that I fancy any of the Europeans in the Turf Sprint (19.41,five furlongs) and the favourite Motorious got the Green Flash Handicap over course and distance last time in the stewards’ room from Reef Runner, who subsequently won the Eddie D Stakes over six and a half furlongs. I expect Bob Baffert to collect the Distaff (21.01) with Seismic Beauty at short odds to complete a four timer having won the Grade 1 Clement L Hirsch Stakes at the track last time. One of the most successful races for Europeans is the Turf (21.41) but I would not touch odds on Minnie Hauk with a bargepole after her hard race in Paris. Rebel’s Romance looks better value to defend his crown having warmed up beating Redstricting in the Grade 1 Judd Hirsch Stakes at Belmont. Of the rest in the Turf, El Cordobes looks massively overpriced (third at Belmont) if your bookie is going extra places. In the Turf Mile (23.05), Notable Speech is favourite but the only race he has won this year was the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile, where he was long odds on. The ‘wonder horse’ The Lion In Winter (winner of no races this year, including second in the QEII last time) will probably come good for O’Brien having been last in the Prix Jacques le Marois (Notable Speech second) and third in the Prix du Moulin (won by Sahlan). It would be ironic if Qirat won. Bob Baffert’s Nysos is fairly justifiable at short odds for the Dirt Mile (23.45), winner of the San Diego Handicap at this track last time and with last year’s winner Full Serrano the one to beat. The Classic (22.25) sees several of last year’s contenders return, including the winner Sierra Leone. Sadly Godolphin’s Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty has been scratched but that does open up the betting. Chad Brown’s Contrary Thinking clearly has a snowball’s chance in Hell and is here as a pacemaker. He filled that role last time when Todd Pletcher’s Antiquarian beat Chad Brown’s Sierra Leone in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga, a race in which Todd Pletcher’s Mindframe came home riderless. Mindframe had previously beaten Sierra Leone in the Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs. With the favourite out, Bob Baffert now only has three year old outsider Nevada Beach flying the flag and although he turned over Full Serrano in a Grade 1 last time that does not look good enough as his only graded win when in receipt of 6lb WFA from the runner-up. Baeza was third in the Kentucky Derby and won the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby last time at Philadelphia Park; however, the Kentucky Derby runner-up Journalism also lines up today. He won the Preakness Stakes, was second in the Belmont to Sovereignty (Baeza third) and won the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes. Last time out he was second in the Pacific Classic, won by Fierceness over course and distance. The Coolmore operation owns a big part of this four year old. He was second in this race last year, where the Coolmore team were probably all eyes on City Of Troy. Just behind him that day was the Japanese raider FOREVER YOUNG, tasting only his second career defeat (his previous one in a three way photo for the 2024 Kentucky Derby – Sierra Leone second). This term the Japanese horse won the Saudi Cup, finished third in the Dubai World Cup and won the Grade 2 Nippon TV Hai on 1st October as his warm up for this one. The last race on the card this year is after midnight UK time: the Filly & Mare Turf (00.25). There is a big European presence but quite a few of them look to be out of their depth. It is very hard to make a case for Donnacha O’Brien’s Group 3 winner Atsila or Kevin de Foy’s Cathedral (no pattern wins). Of the home team, Mission Of Joy won a Grade 2 last time, Stellify won a career-best Grade 3 and steps up in trip, Be Your Best has won a Grade 1 but was third in the Flower Bowl Stakes last time, won by Bellezza, which was by some way her career best. The mare Village Voice was fifth in the Fillies & Mares on Champions Day for Jessica Harrington but has now switched to Chad Brown, for whom she won a Grade 3 over this trip at Belmont; however, that will surely not be good enough today. It is impossible to make an assessment of the Peruvian runner La Kika but I will be amazed if she get involved at the business end! The best chance of the dollars staying home is She Feels Pretty, a high quality mare that won the EP Taylor Stakes at Woodbine as well as the Grade 1 New York Stakes at Saratoga (Bellezza third). The main five European contenders are mostly familiar names. See The Fire was second in the Prix de l’Opéra when last seen (touched off in a blanket finish); however, she definitely did not want the 14 draw over this extended trip. Bedtime Story’s best effort in a winless season was when runner-up in the Prix de Diane. Last time she was fourth at Ascot just ahead of Village Voice so she may well still be winless tomorrow. The Prix de Diane winner Gezora was never a factor in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe last time after chasing home Aventure in the Prix Vermeille; however, not having had much of a race that day could work to her favour from a good draw. Diamond Rain enters calculations here on her second in the EP Taylor Stakes, a significant step up on her Group 3 form in Europe. Can she improve past the re-opposing winner? That only leaves me with last year’s runner up in this race: CINDERELLA’S DREAM. She is clearly a better horse on the other side of The Pond, winner of the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks last year and the Saratoga Oaks before being beaten by Moira at Del Mar. Her form has not been as good this term although she won a domestic Group 1 (the Falmouth Stakes) before finishing only third last time in the Sun Chariot.
ARETI was heavily backed but raced to the fore and then faded late. 5/1 into 7/4 suggested more was expected but didn't last home. PINTARA was well supported and despite being slightly wayward came clear to win by three and a half lengths looking as if Group races are a possible next season. Pity the first runner hadn't justified support with a tame effort but Pintara was a really impressive winner.
